Recently, we had three children who live with Juvenile Diabetes make a stop at the Channel 4 studios to record a public service announcement (PSA) for the 2013 Walk to Cure Diabetes. You’ll be seeing the PSA starting this week on WIVB-TV. Join us for the Walk — which includes stops in Delaware Park and the Buffalo Zoo on June 9th! Get more information here: http://www.wivb.com/subindex/community

Three children with Type 1 Diabetes joined me here at the Channel 4 studios to record a Public Service Announcement for the 2013 Walk to Cure Diabetes. Mallory Esford is age 7 and Tyler Standish is 5. Emily Dickey is a very active 4th-grader who has been profiled on News 4 previously because of her fundraising efforts for the Juvenile Diabetes Research Foundation.

We take directions from Jim Diavastes, WIVB-TV producer of the PSA for the 2013 Walk to Cure Diabetes.

Videographer Roy Schrodt keeps us in view as he records the PSA for the 2013 Walk to Cure Diabetes.

7 year old Mallory Esford is a lively first grader from Hamburg who was first diagnosed with Type 1 Diabetes at age three.

5 year old Tyler Standish is a fun-loving pre-schooler who has been living with Juvenile Diabetes since age two.

Look for us in the PSA for the 2013 Walk to Cure Diabetes now airing on Channel 4. And, join us for the Walk on June 9th in Delaware Park and the Buffalo Zoo!

As our airmass draws higher dewpoints into the region, the trigger mechanism for any tshowers on Monday afternoon will be the edge of a weak Lk Erie breeze over the hilly terrain well inland to the S & SE. There will be several rounds of convection Tue-Wednesday night, with the atmosphere ripening for somewhat more widespread coverage, especially later Tue and Wed. Winds aloft will be fairly weak, meaning tshowers & more vigorous tstorms will tend to be slower-moving. A few spots could receive gullywashers and experience poor drainage flooding. In addition, this will be our first stretch of Sticky Days and Nights, lasting into Wednesday evening. SPC has WNY at Slight Risk for Severe on Wednesday. Some of that risk will depend on how much destabilization we do or don’t get from solar heating. Modeled profiles suggest some low level directional shear on Wednesday, with winds veering from SSW to SW with increased height. Still, the models as of Monday morning don’t suggest a particularly potent setup…we’d need some less than likely widespread sunshine and a little more shear than what’s expected as of this Monday AM to make things really pop.

By Thursday, we’ll be on the cooler side of this wavy front, with scattered showers. Cool & Dry air will move in for Friday, with daytime highs only in the low 60s and not much warmer on a bright & sunny Saturday. We should be back to the mid and upper 60s by Sunday, and getting closer to 70 for Memorial Day. I can’t rule out some patchy valley frost Friday and/or Saturday night.

After the frosty start to this week, a warm front will arrive in WNY by Wednesday AM, ushering in some Sct Showers & Tstorms. This will be elevated convection, so it will not be impacted by the cooler lake waters. The models for wind directional change with increased altitude show quite a bit of low level veering/wind shear, so some thunderstorms with rotation can’t be ruled out. After one or 2 rounds of Sct convective cells into early Wednesday afternoon, things should settle down for a few days, with daytime highs averaging in the low 70s. The chance for Sct convection will probably return by Sunday into Monday and Tuesday. The airmass at that time will be warm and instability will be on the increase. An upper level trough may take on an orientation (negative tilt showing in some ensemble means) which would increase advection of warm & humid air and help create better dynamics for strong tstorms by Tuesday. A cold upper level low well to the NW of the surface low will feed cold air aloft and create more impressive lapse rates.

It’s VERY early in the game, but this kind of pattern can be recognized as one which can increase the chance for severe tstorms over parts of the Great Lakes.

And now, for the rest of the story. Remember last year when Eric Zaczek won the diamond at the Leukemia and Lymphoma Society Diamond Ball and immediately dropped down on his knee and proposed to Charis Gatas in front of hundreds of guests? (Watch his proposal here: http://youtu.be/ZpbFG14Lugo) Well, here they are as husband and wife! My husband and I were so pleased to be invited to their beautiful wedding Saturday at St. Louis Church. God bless this happy couple!

Our streak of 70+ degree days reached 7 as of Monday, and a few more are likely to keep that streak going. A slow moving storm system over the south will send some very limited moisture into WNY on Wednesday. In the meantime we also had 5 consecutive days with 100% of the possible sunshine 5 days in a row…rare ’round these parts! A few  more spotty showers may be around on Thursday and Friday as well. During Saturday, a cold front will drop into the Great Lakes. The rainfall potential with this strong front remains quite uncertain, but Sunday/Mother’s Day will probably be our first day with below average temperatures in 2 weeks. A few showers may pop up with the cold air aloft producing some instability on Sunday, but it should be rainfree most of the time. Sunday night could bring some patchy frost inland IF skies clear enough and winds subside sufficiently. Monday will still be cool, but plenty sunshine will return, and readings will go back to above average by Wednesday. So, this chillier period is going to be strictly a quick hit.

Buffalo Walk MS moved to Canalside in 2013 under blue skies and sunshine! WNY has one of the highest rates of MS in the entire country.

Buffalo Walk MS moved to Canalside in 2013 under blue skies and sunshine!

Some 2,000 people joined us at Canalside to raise money for the programs of the National Multiple Sclerosis Society. WNY has one of the highest rates of MS in the entire country.

With News 4 Videographer Josh Roy I interviewed walkers with multiple sclerosis for the News 4 Buffalo evening newscasts. MS is a chronic disease of the central nervous system with a wide range of symptoms.

Sandy LaSpada of Lockport, who has multiple sclerosis, is the leader of Team Smurfs. The Smurfs are among the highest fundraisers for Walk MS.

Carole Marra of Sanborn was interviewed for News Four about her son’s challenges with MS. Joey Marra, to her right in the sunglasses, is now 16 and was diagnosed with MS at age 8 — perhaps the youngest person ever to receive this diagnosis in WNY.

I was proud to be part of Team Joey this year. Joey Marra, age 16 wearing sunglasses, lives with MS. Every day is a challenge, but Joey has been able to maintain his spot on the honor roll!

Linda Pautler of Cheektowaga is hopeful research will change her life, but also that research will keep other from being diagnosed with MS.

Assemblyman Dennis Gabrysak is a member of the legislative alliance in Albany that aims to keep issues related to MS in the forefront.

State Senator Mark Grisanti and State Assemblyman Dennis Gabrysak, both members of the MS legislative alliance in Albany, spoke to the Walk MS crowd.

Before Walk MS stepped off we took a few minutes to give details and safety instructions.

Many of the people who join Walk MS have multiple sclerosis or are walking on behalf of a relative, friend, or co-worker who does. Some 3400 people in the Buffalo area have MS.

I have been honored to be part of Walk MS for more than 25 years… with the support of WIVB-TV Ch. 4, a major Walk sponsor.

As the clock hit 10 AM on Saturday, May 4, we were good to go. Get ready, get set, walk!

My former co-worker “Troubleshooter” Lee Coppola and his great family were among the walkers. They represented Team Coolture. Coolture is a local company that makes a cooling vest designed for those who have difficulty tolerating heat — a big problem for many people with MS.

A great team called “Gracefully Here.” They’re supporting Christina Douglas from Niagara Falls, to my right, whom you may recognize because she appeared with me on billboards and in the Walk MS announcement which aired on Ch. 4.

Rich Warden of Silver Creek was diagnosed with MS in 1995. His family and friends formed ‘Warden’s Walkers” and they have been with us every year since 1996 among the highest team fundraisers. They are dedicated to the mission of finding the causes of MS and, hopefully, a cure!

A big thank you to all the Walk MS volunteers like Mary and Rick. We couldn’t do it without them!

After Walk MS it’s time to enjoy the sunny weather with hot dogs, music, and sunshine!

Walk MS raises money for local patient programs and for research into new treatments and someday, a cure for multiple sclerosis.

There is no real confidence any longer that early CPC outlooks for a milder than average spring will bear fruit in May. In the near term, although the CPC is giving us a somewhat positive anomaly for temperatures in the 6-14 Day Outlooks, it should be noted that the 3 indices will be trending in the wrong direction for significantly warm anomalies around here. The AO and NAO are both showing most of their ensemble members trending toward negative territory in May, while many PNA members trend upward. While these indices tend to have a little less impact climatologically as we move into mid-spring, this year that may not be so much the case. A major snow cover anomaly continues over much of the northern plains and nearby Canadian praries, assuring a colder pool of air. That, plus a large area of high soil moisture will also hold temperatures down. Whether these anomalies will still play a key role later in May is unknowable right now.

The MJO has become weaker, and its climatological impact also lessens as the month goes on. ENSO remains neutral, and is forecast by most models as likely to stay neutral through the autumn.

While these near term positive temperature anomalies are the first we’ve seen from CPC in probably a couple of weeks for us, the confidence level for both the 6-10 & 8-14 Day Outlooks is only 2 out of 5, and that may be tied partially to the indices’ trends I outlined above.

In any case, CPC has backed off from the weak warm anomaly it had for our region for May, and gone over to EC. And, since ensemble means are showing no rebuilding of an eastern ridge with any staying power in the next 14-16 days, I concur with that call.

After this past week’s soaking rain, I wouldn’t say there’s “no rest for the weary”, but there may not be enough rest. A strong warmup on Monday from a downslope wind will boost temperatures by close to 20 degrees from Sunday’s high. The proximity of a nearby cold front will increase the chance for some showers by Tuesday, but the amount of rainfall we can expect from the passage of that front seems uncertain. Later in the week, the European model brings a deep low pressure system toward the northern Great Lakes. That might warm us up again sharply around Thursday, but the Gulf inflow ahead of its cold front and the dynamics of that storm–if realized–could bring convective rains and the potential for larger amounts. A backslide will arrive by or during Friday to below average temperatures into the weekend.  The ensemble means are not showing much in the way of a rebuilding of a warmer pattern afterward, into the following week.

The indices seem to support that cooler pattern again as well, with the AO ensemble trending downward later in the month. The NAO has a lot of spread, but there appears to be a slightly negative mean to the ensemble members. And, there is an upward tick in the PNA members at the very end of the 14 day period.

The anomalous snow cover over the upper plains/upper midwest and Canadian prairies is also serving as an anomalous cold air reservoir for the north central US, and that reservoir can also deliver chilly outbreaks to us–as we already know.

Pretty harsh afternoon for the Dyngus Day parade, with a nasty wind chill, some bits o’ sun, and some occ’l snow showers. The hills well south could see 1-3″ amounts overnight, with a little blowing snow to boot. But there are FINALLY signs of a more fundamental pattern change taking shape gradually later this week and continuing into next week. For example, the European 500mb ensemble mean shows rising heights in the east and falling heights in the interior of the west. This would allow temps to approach age at the end of the week and to run somewhat above average much of next week. There’ll be some ups and downs here and there, but MEAN is changing. Average high for today is 48