This week begins with a Wind Advisory for much of WNY, and a short-term concern about some late afternoon low-topped convection ahead of a Pacific cold front (both the wind and thunder potential were pointed out late last week here and on the air). The chilly, very gusty winds tonight will slowly give way to seasonably conditions Tuesday, though it will still be windy. Areas of low pressure currently appear slated to pass to far to the north and too far to the SE to bring us much of an impact by Thursday, with temperatures probably too warm for anything but a mix in the first place. A shot of seasonably cold, blustery weather will be setting up by later Saturday into Sunday. There are no signs of truly significant snow coming this week.

The overall pattern is still showing no signs of a ‘fundamental’ change, with no high latitude blocking evident in ensemble output to alter that view. Last week, it appeared that next week would be colder (though not extremely cold), and this morning’s output looks even a bit less impressive than that. At times, it will be cold enough for snow if the right short waves come along–more or less seasonable. But there will also be a few milder than average days as well next week. The NCEP 500 mb Ensemble Mean suggests seasonably cold conditions will prevail in the mean, in the extended range, with a bit of a western ridge and an eastern trough.

Our temporary news studio is in one corner of the set for ‘Winging It’ which airs each morning on CW23.

This may be too much inside baseball to share – but it’s been bugging me – and several people have asked me about it. While we are broadcasting the news from a temporary studio – we don’t have all the tools you would expect from a TV news operation. Take, for instance, the Teleprompter. Normally it is situated to project the script right in front of the camera lens…..so when I’m looking at you, the viewer, I’m actually seeing the entire script roll before my eyes.

We are using the cameras normally dedicated to ‘Winging It’ which don’t have Teleprompters. As a temporary fix, the script is rolling on the monitor a few inches below the camera lens.

In this temporary studio, without Teleprompters, the script is rolling on a monitor sitting UNDER the camera lens. How can I be looking at you, when I am forced to look down below the camera for the news copy? In my case, I’m trying to memorize or ad-lib as much of the script as is reasonable.

As I said, this is temporary, and won’t last much longer. The payoff will be fantastic. But, in the meantime, know that we are all trying to make the best of an unusual situation – and we ARE trying to look at you!

A short term moderating trend is underway, with some rain (and some interior freezing rain for a few hours) to mark its arrival. The warming will last through mid-afternoon on Tuesday, followed by another sharp cooldown with some limited snow, blowing snow, and very Gusty winds to mark ITS arrival. A reinforcing shot of arctic air will arrive in the wake of a clipper-type low on Thursday, but that arctic air will depart the region as we move into the middle of next weekend. Virtually all signs are pointing to a lengthier period of warmer than average conditions on most (but probably not all) days until very late in the month, when a chillier pattern may begin to take shape.

The Tuesday evening snow will be minor on the Niagara Frontier compared to last Friday’s. But with winds gusting above 40 mph and rapidly falling temperatures, there will be some blowing snow for several hours along with the potential for a quick icing over of some surfaces. Farther south on the hilly terrain, more significant lake effect snow will set up later Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning but this snow, too, will not add up to the amounts seen Friday night into Saturday. The next arctic surge behind Thursday’s clipper looks to have less moisture associated with it.

The developing warm pattern next week will be widespread, with the exception of the Pacific NW and northern Rockies, and will have some staying power.

A sharp arctic cold front will usher in very gusty winds by dawn, and change a mixture to all snow by the start of the Friday AM commute. What would be merely a modest snowfall will be complicated by the strong winds, producing considerable blowing snow and potential whiteouts. As the cold air begins to deepen during Friday, the snow will begin to take on a lighter density, making it easier to be whipped up by the winds. Most of what falls on the Niagara Frontier will be part of a broad/”synoptic” snowfall covering the region on Friday, rather than a narrow band of Lake Effect. The temperature difference between the warm Lake Erie surface and the atmosphere up to about a mile in altitude won’t be great enough to make for the narrow, convective band of true lake effect. However, some of Lk Erie’s moisture may enhance the general snowfall on the Niagara Frontier, especially through midday–that’s called Lake Enhancement, rather than actual Lake Effect. SW winds in the AM should average 20-30 mph with gusts to 45. The winds will turn Westerly during the afternoon, at 20-30 with gusts to about 40. Snowfall rates will be lighter in the afternoon, but there will still be problems from Blowing Snow–some Whiteouts will likely occur, especially in open country. Late in  the day and overnight, some modest Lake Effect snow will finally develop as the atmosphere aloft cools further. Most of this lake snow will focus on the hilly terrain of Ski Country and the srn tier.

A preliminary estimate of general snow accumulations for the Niagara Frontier for Friday is 2-4″, with a little more on the hills to the south by later in the day. But it must again be emphasized this modest snow accumulation will be complicated by the strong winds. The hilly terrain may see amounts of 4-7″ by Saturday AM. Saturday’s high temps will range from the teens to near 20, and Saturday night will be one of the colder nights of the season–especially if clearing develops. It looks like only some flurries or lt snow shwrs will be around for parts of a seasonably cold Sunday.

Temperatures will remain above average into Thursday, peaking on Wednesday. But in the wake of an area of low pressure, colder weather will be returning Thursday night into the weekend, with a change from rain to some snow. There are indications of some Lake Effect Snow before Friday morning into Friday. As of this posting, it’s too soon to focus in on lake snow intensity and/or location. Some computer guidance points to a more prolonged period of southwest winds for Friday, which would bring measurable lake snow close to the metro area, while other guidance suggests a brief period of SWly winds, veering more quickly to westerly. In that event, any lake snow would be steered from possibly near the metro area into ski country more quickly.

While this will be something of a wintry outbreak and pattern, there are still no signs of a more fundamental pattern shift to truly wintry conditions of any real duration. Without a blocking ridge of high pressure setting up near Greenland, the northern branch of the jetstream can only “buckle” southward (allowing true arctic air to move south) for relatively short timespans, rather than the lengthier cold periods we’re more accustomed to in the Great Lakes and NE. Buffalo’s official snow total for the season is at 5.5″, while normally we would have had more than 43″ by this date. And, Lake Erie is at 39 degrees, an impressive 5 degrees above average. That would mean if we had a lengthier period of SW winds on Friday with modified arctic air crossing those warm waters, snow totals could be more impressive. The Meteorologists of WeatherWatch 4 will keep you updated on this potential.

A halo around the moon (or sun) is caused by cirrostratus clouds.  These are high altitude clouds, typically at 20,000 to 26,000 feet.  Cirrostratus contain ice crystals, moonlight hits these crystals and forms a halo.  Seeing the halo can mean inclement weather within the next 24 to 48 hours because the clouds can be followed by altostratus then nimbostratus clouds.

Halo around the moon taken by Mike Mills of Angola

At the time of this posting, there continues to be virtually no sign of a fundamental pattern shift which would lead to a more prolonged flow of arctic air into the Great Lakes or, for that matter, anywhere else in the lower 48 and much of the middle latitudes around the northern hemisphere. We continue to see a tendency for the arctic air to remain bottled up to the north on most days, with only brief visits from those cold airmasses. The mean flow in the northern branch of the jetstream much of the time through the middle of next week will be zonal–or west to east, and Pacific in origin. There is higher confidence in a turn to more typically wintry conditions arriving later Thursday into the following weekend. But even that wintry outbreak won’t be hanging around long. As the following week arrives, there are 2 global models which suggest lowering heights and storminess near the Pacific NW. If that occurred, that could pump up the SE ridge again, which would keep our heights above average.

However, following that–later in January, there are still overall signs of a more seasonable trough over the Great Lakes.

All in all, however, the chances for significant ice to form in time for Pond Hockey Tournament in 5 weeks look might, mighty slim.

AP Photo

Everybody is talking about Stevie Johnson and his benching against the Patriots.  There are a lot of levels with this story.  The celebration, the benching, the team reaction, the free agency/contract effect on Stevie.

I’ll break them down one by one.

The Celebration:  Stevie raises his uniform to show a hand-written “Happy New Year!!”  Same thing he did in Cincinnati last year.  He wasn’t penalized then, but fined later.  This time he gets an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty.  But why do it?  You’re already on thin ice with your celebrations.  So why push it?  Why is it so hard to spike the ball or hand it to an official.  Stevie’s already popular in WNY.  What more is he looking for?  Besides, he should have know better, because…..

The Benching:  Stevie knew that Chan Gailey had told the team the next player to get a celebration penalty would be benched.  He knew that.  He should have known it was mostly directed at him.  I don’t care that he didn’t think he’d get a penalty, because one wasn’t called in Cincinnati last year.  Be smart.  Don’t push it.  You know you’re Coach isn’t happy with you after the Jets game.  He had to know this would be pushing his buttons.  He had to know Chan wasn’t messing around.  This is a total lack of judgement from Johnson.  Either that, or he’s ridiculously oblivious to all the warnings.  I totally agree with Gailey.  Call him old school if you want.  That’s OK with me.  We need that discipline around here.  It’s how you learn to win.  Stevie needed to be accountable, just like every other player.  Don’t tell me Chan hurt the Bills chances to win.  That’s on Stevie, not Chan.  A bigger message needed to be sent than one game.

The Team Effect:  This is over-rated.  Some players will think Stevie got dissed.  Others will be mad at him for taking himself off the field.  But listening to George Wilson talk after the game, the sage veteran voice says Stevie needs to learn and not make the same mistakes.  Bingo.  That’s one player saying enough already.  Players understand that discipline is part of football, and a key part of the formula for winning.

The Free Agency Effect:  I don’t think this issue has a huge impact, but it adds to the list.  Stevie’s judgement is a concern.  If you’re going to give him a big, new deal, you better have faith in him as a player, person and leader.  What has Stevie done to foster any of that?  It’s part of the whole consideration.  I believe he is a good, not great receiver.  Probably a solid #2 in a perfect situation.  A thousand yards is good, but only 1 100 yard game?  That’s not good enough for 7-8 million dollars.  He’s just not athletic enough.  The Bills need a true #1 wideout, and I don’t think Stevie is that.  I would try to sign him at my price, 5-6 million.  No more.  I doubt Stevie could get much more unless a team overpays.  Would it create a hole?  Yes.  Can that hole be filled?  Yes. A free agent or a draft pick.  Easily.  You can’t overpay just because the departure would create a hole.  You set a price, and stick to it.  Maybe being the Bills #2 receiver would make Stevie tone it down, and stick to football.

I like Stevie Johnson.  He’s a good guy, and a good player.  He has a fun, fresh effect on the locker room. But he has to grow up.  He’s not good enough to get away with this stuff.

I would like the Bills to keep him, but at a resonable price.  No more.  If he leaves, you just go get more receivers who can equal his production.  It’s how the NFL works.  He’s not good enough to break the bank.  Save that for a real #1 receiver the Bills desperately need.

The slowed arrival of arctic air will keep the forecast for low accumulations from Buffalo northward intact. Lake effect snow won’t be able to organize much before midnight tonight. The band likely won’t intensify until it’s south of the City overnight, first hitting the Buffalo Stowns, srn Genesee & Wyoming Cos, and then settling farther south into srn Erie (distant southtowns, Boston Hills), Wyoming, portions of Chau & Catt Cos. Some thunder may accompany this intense band by morning, along with localized whiteouts and Near Blizzard conditions. The strong winds which will develop after the passage of the cold front this evening don’t look QUITE as strong as they did in earlier computer runs, and will likely increase to 25-35 w/Gusts to 50 (less likely to produce damage or outages) tonight and early tomorrow–but still more than strong enough to produce Hazardous travel conditions by morning within the lake band. Even the lesser amounts in the southern part of the metro area will be more than enough to create considerable drifting and blowing snow. From Buffalo northward, the light overnight accumulations will blow around, but conditions won’t be nearly as hazardous as those to the south. Amounts in Ski Country will range from at least 1-2 feet by Tuesday morning on the higher terrain, but amounts may also exceed a foot along the Lk Erie shoreline south of Hamburg to Dunkirk/Fredonia. A more NW flow late tomorrow into Tuesday will create multiple, narrow and meandering bands of some lake snow from Lk Huron & Georgian Bay. That will produce widely varying add’l accumulations north & NE of the metro area, though not as heavy as in Ski Country.