The End of La Nina and Assorted Odds ‘n Ends

May 7th, 2012 at 9:40 pm by under 4 Warn Weather

CPC says we are now in neutral ENSO conditions, and they expect that to be the case through most or all of the summer. The majority of ENSO models project neutral conditions for the remainder of the year, but a number of what are called ‘dynamical’ models, like the CFS, favor a transition to el nino. CPC’s bottom line: odds are even for either neutral ENSO or el nino by fall and winter. In the near term, the MJO remains “incoherent”, having no measurable effect on tropical convection or our weather, although there are some hints that it may go back to active in about 2 weeks. No signs of any severe weather threat anywhere near us this week into early next week, although some convection will occur tonight/Monday night in spots. Ensemble means at the 500 mb level/surface suggest our next best chance for a warmer than average pattern may have to wait until around May 20-22, when heights are progged to begin to rise. In the meantime, there’ll be weak troughing in the east, with a transition to more zonal conditions a little more likely next week.


Walk MS 2012 – Sunny and Hopeful!

May 6th, 2012 at 4:10 pm by under Jacquie Walker's Newsroom Notebook

A colorful view of Coca Cola Field about 30 minutes before the start of Walk MS 2012. The sunshine and warm, spring temperatures meant it was going to be a very good day. Western New York has one of the highest rates of MS in the country. In Erie County alone, some 2,000 people live with multiple sclerosis, a chronic disease of the central nervous symptoms with unpredictable symptoms.

The National MS Society had predicted a turnout of about 1600 walkers signing in, but the fine weather brought an encouraging sign there might be more. Money raised goes to support local patient services and funds research into treatments and, ultimately, a cure for MS.

As soon as I arrived I was re-acquainted with a dynamic wife and mother I have talked to previously at the MS Walks. As you can see from her shirt, she was diagnosed with MS in August of 2008. There have been many ups and downs since then, but she told me this past year has been a good, stable year for her.

Many of the walking teams gather around the tent area at the rear of Coca Cola Field, waiting for the announcements before we kickoff Walk MS. Guy and Sue Berberich's team, "Paving the Way to a Cure," raised an astounding $21,075!

It is a tradition for teams to gather on the hill next to the stadium for group photos. Note the back of the shirt in the foreground of this photo. Almost everybody walks with a special person in mind and they write it on their shirt.

I walk for Joey Marra of Niagara County. Joey, diagnosed with MS at age 8, is believed to by the youngest person to receive this diagnosis in WNY. He is now 15 and works extremely hard to maintain his schoolwork and activities, even in the face of painful, unpredictable symptoms.

The first time this team, the Motley Crew, has walked together -- and theirs is a bittersweet story. They are walking in memory of wife, mother, daughter, and friend, Patricia Amato of North Tonawanda. Patricia lived with MS for many years, but was killed in a car accident near the UB campus on February 11, 2012.

Wendy Cannon and the Medina MS'keteers are enthusiastic supporters each year of Walk MS.

Gina Bienko of Buffalo has lived with MS for seven years. I interviewed her for News 4 and she told me she is optimistic researchers will find a cure for MS and she is grateful for all the Walk MS support that provides dollars for research.

Sandy LaSpada of Lockport lives with MS and maintains a sunny outlook, as you can see by the fun hat. Sandy's team, "Smurfs," raised the second highest total of the day - $10,839!

I was pleased to offer words of encouragement, and some last-minute instructions, to the walkers as they were ready to hit the streets at 10 AM. I believe it's always important to say 'thank you,' because we don't seem to do that enough!

State Sen. Mark Grisanti (R-60th Dist.), spoke to the crowd about joining a statewide alliance of legislators who are working on MS-related issues. Grisanti's brother, Richard, has lived with MS for more than 25 years.

An uplifting view of the crowd as we were ready to start Walk MS 2012. In more than 25 years of volunteering with the National MS Society, I've seen MS treatments go from almost nothing, to several choices today, and there are more in the pipeline. Every donation has meaning in this fight to find a cure.

Walk MS 2012 gets underway as teams follow the specially marked routes that will take them down to the waterfront and back.

Leah Sarzyniak of Wheatfield, and Arianna Warriner of North Tonawanda, are starting early in learning more about multiple sclerosis.

One of our most reliable teams comes from Silver Creek. Warden's Walkers participate each year in support of Rich Warden, a former race car driver, who was diagnosed with multiple sclerosis 15 years ago.

Two dynamic volunteers for the MS Society, Irene Ponce of Buffalo, and Kimberly Gervase of Depew.

It's become a recent tradition to sign Savannah Negron's shirt. She's only 8, but this young volunteer from Cheektowaga has turned out for the past four years at Walk MS.

Jayne Spell is a volunteer who welcomed walkers as they arrived at Coca Cola Field and told me she wants to do more and more to support the MS Society. She hosted a spaghetti dinner at her church and raised $800. Her husband was diagnosed with MS in 2004.

All participants were invited to sign the MS banner with their individual messages about fighting MS.

Students from the New York Institute of Massage were providing relief to volunteers as they completed Walk MS.

I met my name twin. I'm Jacquie Walker of News Four Buffalo and she is Jackie Walker of Buffalo!

Kathy and Don Pfeifer of Lancaster walked in honor of their son, Drew, who has MS. The Pfeifers are on the Executive Committee of familiestouchedbyms.org, a local charitable group which works to provide equipment and other needs to those with MS.

This is how some participants finished Walk MS 2012 -- being cheered on by Pharmacy student volunteers from D'Youville College. Cheers to all who joined the effort!

 

Look for more Channel 4 activities and photos on my Facebook page. Give it a “like” to stay updated!


Farewell to Paul Peck after 24 years at Ch. 4

April 29th, 2012 at 7:39 pm by under Jacquie Walker's Newsroom Notebook

After 24 years, Paul Peck leaves News 4 today to begin a new career as a financial advisor.  Paul and I have shared many experiences over this last quarter century, including traveling to all 4 Bills Super Bowls to provide coverage of that rare time in local sports.

Paul Peck on Van Miller's last day at WIVB

Paul has excelled as an anchor, reporter, writer, producer (for the great Van Miller!), and team player.  See Paul above on Van Miller’s last day at WIVB-TV in 2000 with producers Mike Courtney and Steve Cichon.

I wish Paul, his wife, Kim, and his two beautiful daughters, nothing but blue skies and happiness from here on out.  Paul will still be the Voice of the UB Bulls, he will still be @PeckOnSports on Twitter, and he will always be a friend to News 4.  Good luck and thank you for your outstanding work, Paul!

Paul Peck given #4 Bills jersey as farewell gift from the team

 


Celebrating 20 Years of Making Wishes Come True for Sick Children

April 29th, 2012 at 9:14 am by under Jacquie Walker's Newsroom Notebook

About 550 people turned out at the Adam's Mark Hotel Saturday night for the 20th Annual Make-A-Wish Gala. Over the past 20 years, the organization has granted the wishes of 2,000 children with life-changing medical conditions.

I was pleased to serve as emcee, filling in for Larry Norton, for the 20th Annual Make-A-Wish Gala which raised an astounding $345,000 to grant the wishes of sick children.

A highlight of the 20th Annual Make-A-Wish Gala on Saturday night saw members of the Wendelville Fire Company escort Wish Kids Jonathan and Connor onto the stage at the Adam's Mark Hotel. It was Jonathan and Connor's wish to ride a firetruck -- and their wish was granted!

Wish Kids Jonathan and Connor love to dress as Buzz Lightyear and a Firefighter, as you can see.

Larry Norton of 97Rock was honored during the Gala for his 17 years of steadfast support for the Make-A-Wish Foundation. He is credited with helping raise more than 2 million dollars for Make-A-Wish over the past 17 years.

Larry Norton of 97Rock was conducting an auction to raise money for Make-A-Wish during the cocktail hour before dinner. He never stops!

I interviewed Anthony Habib, chair of the Gala, for News 4 on Saturday night. He told me he hoped the event raised $300,000 dollars. By the end of the night, he happily told the crowd they had raised $345,000 to grant the wishes of sick children in WNY! Habib is President of Petri Bakery products and announced that beginning June 1st Petri and Tops Markets will donate $1.50 from every specially marked box of Petri cookies to the Make-A-Wish Foundation.

I ran into Bills kicker Rian Lindell as he was meeting Javier. We learned that Javier has had his wish granted to see Alaska.

Bills kicker Rian Lindell and I enjoyed meeting 18 year old Javier who wanted to talk about his Make-A-Wish experience in the Alaskan wilderness.

It was a successful evening for Make-A-Wish raising $345,000, honoring Larry Norton, and celebrating children with magical dreams. And the event was capped with music from the "Boys of Summer," native WNYers who've been playing together for 20 years.


The Snow Exits, but Not the Chill…Not Just Yet

April 24th, 2012 at 9:33 pm by under 4 Warn Weather

As I post this, the last of the rain and snow showers are weakening over the southern tier. There’ll be a brief warming trend on Thursday, but it comes ahead of another sharp cold front, behind which lies more below average temperatures for several days. A brisk breeze should protect us from frost on a colder Thursday night, but Friday and Saturday nights could bring a new frost threat–even a freeze in some valleys–depending on cloud cover. Latest indications seem to be pointing to a dry Saturday, with an area of low pressure staying far enough to the south so that even the southern part of the viewing area would escape showers. That Saturday dryness, on a Tuesday night, is far from carved in stone, however.  Another large cutoff low will be developing toward the end of the weekend, but this one will be far to our NE. Its circulation is likely to keep cool temperatures with us into Monday. Models and ensembles are pointing in the direction of a zonal flow which should bring a mean of average to eventually somewhat above average temperatures after next Tuesday. The GFS may be a day too fast to warm us up so significantly on Tuesday, as is often the case. The Euro has us quite chilly into early next week, before that zonal flow finally begins to take hold. As always, I remind you that ensemble means cannot discern embedded short waves very well as we get further out in time.


Elements coming together for significant snow storm.

April 21st, 2012 at 9:58 pm by under 4 Warn Weather

As of Saturday afternoon the National Weather Service issued a winter storm watch for all of Western New York with varying snowfall amounts for Sunday evening until Monday Evening.  The NWS is comparing this storm to the one from April 2005.

Here is a small piece from their post earlier.

“IN TERMS OF HOW POTENTIALLY UNUSUAL THIS WHOLE EVENT COULD BE (ESP THE SNOW ASPECT OF IT)…NEARLY ALL OF THE MAJOR FORECAST PARAMETERS ARE 4 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL. IT IS CERTAINLY SIGNIFICANT WHEN A COUPLE FORECAST PARAMETERS ARE THAT ANOMALOUS…BUT WHEN NEARLY ALL OF THE MAIN FACTORS ARE THIS FAR FROM NORMAL…THEN THE EVENT STARTS TO RISE TO THAT OF A MEMORABLE OR EVEN HISTORIC STATURE. THAT BEING SAID…THESE PARAMETERS HAVE TO COME TOGETHER IN THE PERFECT MIX AND THAT IS STILL FAR FROM A CERTAINTY.”

The closer we get the more the models have been staying the same.  After the graphics upgrade we have a new model that allows for 1km resolution and this is what it spit out.

This is close to the NWS totals and what the NAM was showing this morning.  Later this afternoon the latest run of the NAM moved the heaviest amounts further west.

There is going to be some wiggle in the models but the general story stays the same.  This could very well be a memorable event.

http://policlimate.com/weather/current/gfs_namer_cloud.html

The GFS is showing the low deepening to 983 mb low by early morning Tuesday.  Significant to say the least.

By Sunday night the storm will start to bring in rain showers and mixed precipitation.  By Monday morning snow accumulations will be possible especially in the high terrain.  The snow showers will be heavy and wet.  With the warm spring we have already seen foliage and just a few inches of this snow can bring down tree limbs.  Widespread power outages are expected as the snow continues potentially through Tuesday morning.  As shown in the models over a foot of snow is possible in the southern tier and areas east of the city.  Some of the snowfall totals near the lakes may be less because of melting and the potential for slightly warmer temperatures causing mixed precip instead of snow.

Stay with the 4 Warn Weather Meteorologists as we update the forecast.


Weather Secrets Revealed Today at 5 p.m.

April 18th, 2012 at 7:00 am by under 4 Warn Weather, Jacquie Walker's Newsroom Notebook

You’ll see it first on News 4 at 5. For weeks now, our 4Warn meteorologists Don Paul, Mike Cejka, Amelia Segal and Bryan Shaw have been trapped in the weather office working on a secret project! Actually they’ve been training on a new and complex package of weather graphics that will change dramatically the way they tell the weather story each day.

Even though he works until midnight, Chief Meteorologist Don Paul has been coming in at 9:30am each day this week to prepare for News 4's conversion to a new computer system for displaying weather graphics. Keith Cavey, from Weather Central in Madison, Wisconsin, is a meteorologist who trains other meteorologists around the country on the 'Fusion' system.

Chief Meteorologist Don Paul and Weather Central trainer Keith Cavey tell me the 'Fusion' system will provide News 4 viewers with the most advanced weather graphics in Western New York. It has the ability to show viewers the weather where they live.

Meteorologist Bryan Shaw has spent many, many days working to convert the Fusion graphics into appropriate use for Western New York weather. We'll all see it tonight at 5 for the first time with Meteorologist Don Paul. I don't mind telling you, he's a little nervous about this, but we are cheering him on!

 

Look for more Channel 4 photos on my Facebook page. Give it a “like” to stay updated!


Springtime Returns, but with Complications

April 11th, 2012 at 10:34 pm by under 4 Warn Weather

After a fairly typical April cool spell (notable only because of March’s extraordinary warmth), more springlike conditions will return, beginning on a dry and beautiful Friday. But the above average temperatures for the weekend will be dampened by–what else–growing dampness. A series of disturbances moving over the Great Lakes will gradually increase the chances for scattered showers & a few tshowers on Saturday (at the time of this posting, the afternoon hours appear to hold a higher chance),  with more occasional rounds of showers & tstorms on Sunday. There is no clearcut sign of a severe weather threat for Sunday, but we’ll have to keep an eye on jet structure and placement at that time and–possibly–again by Tuesday.

There continues to be quite a bit of uncertainty about the placement of a frontal boundary in the Mon-Tue period, with a 20-25 degree temperature differential on either side of the front. As the NWS has noted, there is considerable “bust” potential in our temperature forecast at that time. With the proximity of this front and string of disturbances, our total rainfall will be potentially significant in spots.

In the meantime, as we finish out this workweek, there will be a growing risk of Severe Tstorm/Tornadic Supercells in the southern and central plains, probably edging up toward Iowa during the weekend.

 


Getting the Word Out About Walk MS 2012

April 11th, 2012 at 7:43 am by under Jacquie Walker's Newsroom Notebook

Western New York has one of the highest rates of Multiple Sclerosis in the country!

You should be seeing a Public Service Announcement on Channel 4 that this happy crew recorded last week in the News 4 studios. We want you to join Walk MS 2012 to help raise money for Multiple Sclerosis research and local patient programs.

I will be walking again this year on behalf Joey Marra, seen here on the left. Joey -- who is inspirational! -- is with his brother, Jacob, and his mother Carole. Joey, now age 15, was diagnosed at age 8. He is believed to be the youngest person in Western New York to be diagnosed with Multiple Sclerosis.

Sandy Laspada of Lockport, was diagnosed with MS in 2002. She leads a large team of walkers in Walk MS called Team Smurfs!

Maria Torres, fluent in Spanish, has become an outspoken advocate working to raise awareness of MS in the local Hispanic community. Maria was diagnosed with MS just two years ago. She has plans to host a neighborhood cook-out to get the word out about MS on the day before Walk MS 2012.

Christy Missico (in the coat) was on hand for the recording session representing the National MS Society. Christy is organizing the big Walk MS 2012 in Buffalo on May 6th at Coca Cola Field.

Sign up for Walk MS

 

Watch the :15 Walk MS PSA:


March and April 2012? Nothing in common, so far.

April 3rd, 2012 at 8:48 pm by under 4 Warn Weather

After the warmest March–by far–in Buffalo record keeping history, April is turning out to be another story. With the enormous 13.4 degree positive mean temperature anomaly, we’re all familiar by now with the premature budding and flowering of many plants. The vulnerability of those buds and flowers continues this week, with the frost already having occurred on Monday night, and the likely additional frost to come later in the week. As of this posting, signs are pointing to another sharp cooldown early next week. There is some evidence that the shifting phase of the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is the main driving force behind the cooler pattern which will dominate the east much (not all) of the time into next week. The  more commonly examined indices, the AO, PNA & NAO are not headed into phases which would support the eastern trough. Even today’s ensemble means are supporting some fairly sharp cooling in the first half of next week. These ensembles are generally not as amplified as the operational models, so when they show really digging troughs, meteorologists sit up and take notice.

There will be some decent warming this Easter Holiday weekend and possibly again by next weekend. But the overall pattern does favor a negative temperature anomaly over the next couple of weeks–in the mean.