The 56th Allentown Art Festival launched on Saturday under less than ideal weather conditions, but the crowds still came and the artists — some 400 of them — were game to show their wares as they scrambled to shore up dripping canopies. Many told me sales picked up as the day went along, and at least one tallied his best day ever at the much-anticipated annual art show.
Obviously, the heat is gone this week. But there are signs that June may end up being cooler more often than the very warm May we just finished. Certainly, there will be warm periods, but the overall pattern and another oscillating pattern favor more frequent troughing over the midwest and the NE, with the strongest/warmest ridging staying over the SW. That is a mean, and will be interrupted to be sure by variations in the pattern. But if this mean were to verify, it also would favor a wetter than average month. Having said all this, it’s only June 3rd as I post this…so much of it is subject to change.
Later this week, tropical moisture is likely to sweep up from the Gulf and SW Atlantic into the east & NE, with some of it arriving in bits and pieces before Thursday morning, and increasing into Thursday-Friday. There will be occasional rounds of showers & tshowers. Currently, the heaviest rain is likely to fall just east of us, but that’s cutting it a little close. Abundant cloud cover should keep instability limited, which makes severe tstorms unlikely. Some of this wet period may linger into a portion of Saturday, with Sunday being the nicest of the 2 weekend days. Another area of low pressure will begin to increase the likelihood of scattered showers by Monday afternoon. Some overall moderation in temperatures should be setting up by mid month. But as of this posting, there are no signs of a return to mid 80s-type heat in the ensemble means.
Recently, we had three children who live with Juvenile Diabetes make a stop at the Channel 4 studios to record a public service announcement (PSA) for the 2013 Walk to Cure Diabetes. You’ll be seeing the PSA starting this week on WIVB-TV. Join us for the Walk — which includes stops in Delaware Park and the Buffalo Zoo on June 9th! Get more information here: http://www.wivb.com/subindex/community
As our airmass draws higher dewpoints into the region, the trigger mechanism for any tshowers on Monday afternoon will be the edge of a weak Lk Erie breeze over the hilly terrain well inland to the S & SE. There will be several rounds of convection Tue-Wednesday night, with the atmosphere ripening for somewhat more widespread coverage, especially later Tue and Wed. Winds aloft will be fairly weak, meaning tshowers & more vigorous tstorms will tend to be slower-moving. A few spots could receive gullywashers and experience poor drainage flooding. In addition, this will be our first stretch of Sticky Days and Nights, lasting into Wednesday evening. SPC has WNY at Slight Risk for Severe on Wednesday. Some of that risk will depend on how much destabilization we do or don’t get from solar heating. Modeled profiles suggest some low level directional shear on Wednesday, with winds veering from SSW to SW with increased height. Still, the models as of Monday morning don’t suggest a particularly potent setup…we’d need some less than likely widespread sunshine and a little more shear than what’s expected as of this Monday AM to make things really pop.
By Thursday, we’ll be on the cooler side of this wavy front, with scattered showers. Cool & Dry air will move in for Friday, with daytime highs only in the low 60s and not much warmer on a bright & sunny Saturday. We should be back to the mid and upper 60s by Sunday, and getting closer to 70 for Memorial Day. I can’t rule out some patchy valley frost Friday and/or Saturday night.
After the frosty start to this week, a warm front will arrive in WNY by Wednesday AM, ushering in some Sct Showers & Tstorms. This will be elevated convection, so it will not be impacted by the cooler lake waters. The models for wind directional change with increased altitude show quite a bit of low level veering/wind shear, so some thunderstorms with rotation can’t be ruled out. After one or 2 rounds of Sct convective cells into early Wednesday afternoon, things should settle down for a few days, with daytime highs averaging in the low 70s. The chance for Sct convection will probably return by Sunday into Monday and Tuesday. The airmass at that time will be warm and instability will be on the increase. An upper level trough may take on an orientation (negative tilt showing in some ensemble means) which would increase advection of warm & humid air and help create better dynamics for strong tstorms by Tuesday. A cold upper level low well to the NW of the surface low will feed cold air aloft and create more impressive lapse rates.
It’s VERY early in the game, but this kind of pattern can be recognized as one which can increase the chance for severe tstorms over parts of the Great Lakes.
And now, for the rest of the story. Remember last year when Eric Zaczek won the diamond at the Leukemia and Lymphoma Society Diamond Ball and immediately dropped down on his knee and proposed to Charis Gatas in front of hundreds of guests? (Watch his proposal here: http://youtu.be/ZpbFG14Lugo) Well, here they are as husband and wife! My husband and I were so pleased to be invited to their beautiful wedding Saturday at St. Louis Church. God bless this happy couple!
Our streak of 70+ degree days reached 7 as of Monday, and a few more are likely to keep that streak going. A slow moving storm system over the south will send some very limited moisture into WNY on Wednesday. In the meantime we also had 5 consecutive days with 100% of the possible sunshine 5 days in a row…rare ’round these parts! A few more spotty showers may be around on Thursday and Friday as well. During Saturday, a cold front will drop into the Great Lakes. The rainfall potential with this strong front remains quite uncertain, but Sunday/Mother’s Day will probably be our first day with below average temperatures in 2 weeks. A few showers may pop up with the cold air aloft producing some instability on Sunday, but it should be rainfree most of the time. Sunday night could bring some patchy frost inland IF skies clear enough and winds subside sufficiently. Monday will still be cool, but plenty sunshine will return, and readings will go back to above average by Wednesday. So, this chillier period is going to be strictly a quick hit.
Buffalo Walk MS moved to Canalside in 2013 under blue skies and sunshine! WNY has one of the highest rates of MS in the entire country.
There is no real confidence any longer that early CPC outlooks for a milder than average spring will bear fruit in May. In the near term, although the CPC is giving us a somewhat positive anomaly for temperatures in the 6-14 Day Outlooks, it should be noted that the 3 indices will be trending in the wrong direction for significantly warm anomalies around here. The AO and NAO are both showing most of their ensemble members trending toward negative territory in May, while many PNA members trend upward. While these indices tend to have a little less impact climatologically as we move into mid-spring, this year that may not be so much the case. A major snow cover anomaly continues over much of the northern plains and nearby Canadian praries, assuring a colder pool of air. That, plus a large area of high soil moisture will also hold temperatures down. Whether these anomalies will still play a key role later in May is unknowable right now.
The MJO has become weaker, and its climatological impact also lessens as the month goes on. ENSO remains neutral, and is forecast by most models as likely to stay neutral through the autumn.
While these near term positive temperature anomalies are the first we’ve seen from CPC in probably a couple of weeks for us, the confidence level for both the 6-10 & 8-14 Day Outlooks is only 2 out of 5, and that may be tied partially to the indices’ trends I outlined above.
In any case, CPC has backed off from the weak warm anomaly it had for our region for May, and gone over to EC. And, since ensemble means are showing no rebuilding of an eastern ridge with any staying power in the next 14-16 days, I concur with that call.