March 11-17 is designated as MS Awareness Week — a time to be aware that WNY has one of the highest rates of Multiple Sclerosis in the entire country. The National MS Society supports research into this unpredictable disease of the central nervous system and offers a wide range of aid to patients. Find details about Walk MS here: http://bit.ly/Y5picq
As of midday Monday, most computer guidance tends to favor mixed precipitation rather than all snow for Tuesday night. But note I said “tends”. There is still a chance enough vertical velocity/lift may occur Tuesday night to cool our atmosphere over portions of WNY to convert a mixture to a period of heavy, slushy snow. The probability of that occurring is, in my judgment, less than 50% but far from an insignificant probability. If that changeover occurred, with fairly gusty winds, the accumulating slushy snow could bring down a few tree limbs and powerlines. The 12z NAM, in particular, has some pretty good lift Tuesday night for such cooling. Wednesday’s rates of precipitation look a little less impressive in the NAM, with reduced lift, that the Wed AM period in the GFS. Still have to view the next run of SREF output.
After that, the pattern I’ve been advertising for a long time still is on. Largely dreary and chilly, sometimes just plain Cold. There are signs that weekend highs may just be in the 20s, which is colder than last weeks ensemble means were suggesting. Another storm may move off the NE coast by then, but this one looks to be too far to the east to have a direct impact here with snow.
It was my pleasure to emcee the 2013 Leukemia and Lymphoma Society Diamond Ball which raises money for research into treatment for blood-related cancers and for aid to patients. See more photos on my Facebook page!
After something of an Arctic Blast with some limited lake snow, temperatures will begin to moderate on Friday. Some light snow may approach by late in the day, and there could be a bit of a light mix on Saturday, with a few degrees cooling on Sunday behind a weak low. Temps will moderate again on Monday, but there are signs this warm up will be short-lived. However, the colder air returning by Tuesday or Wednesday next week looks seasonably chilly, rather than true continental polar air.
The overall storm track will remain somewhat active, with a significant severe weather threat by Thursday this week in the southern plains and Gulf states, and possibly some more storminess again next week. But there aren’t many signs that our region will be under strong influence of any nor’easters at this time. That’s not to say it won’t happen…it’s just that there are no defined signs of it as of this Tuesday posting.
It appears that a northerly flow will keep our temperatures seasonably chilly in the first week of March. Most ensemble means have the axis of a trough in the NE, a little too far east for any nor’easters this impact us. But that IS a long way off. I’m more confident about somewhat below average temps in that period than I am about the lack of storminess for WNY.
Many thanks to the Getzville Fire Company volunteers for their kindness to me once again as I emceed their Annual Installation Dinner on February 9, 2013. They dedicate hours of their personal and family time to protecting the residents, homes, businesses, and schools of Getzville — and the sprawling UB North campus and the 990 Expressway.
No time for great detail on this busy Wednesday evening, but a widespread Winter Storm still appears likely to deliver its heaviest snow to the Niagara Frontier, with somewhat lesser amounts to the south. There is still the question of how much–if any–of an icy mix may develop to the south of the metro area Friday, which would hold down accumulations but make travel more treacherous. There is also the question of a cutoff time to the heavier snow as of this posting, with the NAM and our Vividcast quite a bit faster than the GFS. Most models now are not showing full tilt snowfall rates until we’re into the Friday AM commute, rather than in the predawn hours. If that trend holds true, it’s going to make school delays and cancellations a more difficult call. The wind will be sufficient to cause some Blowing Snow, but currently appears below the threshold for full whiteouts, unless the snow is truly coming down VERY hard. (It will be a different story in NYC-Boston, where the coastal storm will develop powerful gusts by later Friday into Saturday AM, resulting in a Blizzard Watch for Boston to Providence.) If the operational GFS were looking to be a best bet, then I’d have to raise my earlier preliminary estimate for the Lk Ontario counties above the 8-12″ in my early evening forecast. Still working on that, and have to see the next set of SREF output.
Another coastal development may bring more snow to our region and parts of the NE around Thursday next week.
Here’s where I’ll be commenting on the commercials during today’s big game. I welcome YOUR comments and I plan to use some of them during our late news tonight after the Super Bowl (and after CBS’ Elementary.)
I’ve already watched online more than 30 of the commercials that will run during the game. I have an idea which one will be the likely favorite of viewers — but a few brands — Oreo, Tide, Chrysler — have chosen not to reveal their ads before game day — and we’ll have to see if there are any big winners there.
Game starts shortly before 6:30 p.m. — I’ll be back posting then.
Here are some unforgettable big game ads from previous years. Do you remember them?
Looking forward to the Super Bowl commercials this year? Here’s a glimpse of what you’ll see during the big game.
This year, 30 seconds of airtime costs upwards of an estimated $4 million!
Click here to watch previews of 6 ads you’ll see this year.
What do you think? Leave me some comments below.
As we told you last week, the next batch of cold weather will bring us back to below average temperatures, with the coldest day looking to be Friday this week. But it simply will not be as cold as the previous batch. As of this posting there are continuing mixed signals on the strength of prefrontal warm winds Tuesday night and Wednesday AM. The NAM numerical output is quite strong, which is climatologically unusual when the boundary lyr winds are more southerly than SWly. Usually strong to high winds are better indicated in the majority of models–this one’s a tougher call. There may be a convective line with the passage of Wednesday PM’s cold front if the strength of depicted dynamics in some models is realized.
Most of the LES on Thur-Fri should again be occurring over Ski Country and the s tier based on current output. A clipper (strongest in the 00z Euro) will bring a little synoptic snow, shear, and shifting wind directions on Saturday, and another one may approach by Monday. There are signs of some moderation in the ensembles around Feb 6-9th, but not a fundamental pattern shift.