Muggy conditions will continue into Tuesday, although temperatures will not be as warm on Tuesday.  A cold front crossing the region will bring Sct Shwrs & Tstorms Tuesday, mainly PM. While precipitable water will be quite high Tuesday, the dynamics to make strong or severe storms will be marginal.  A bubble of relief arrives for Wednesday, with somewhat lower humidity, but a warm front will be approaching by Thursday AM.  A vigorous upper trough will send unsettled and muggier conditions back in here Thur into Friday, ahead of significantly cooler conditions for the wknd.  While a few stray showers will be possible Saturday, most of the wknd should be dry.  That vigorous trough should help turn Hurricane Bill–which is likely to become  a Major hurricane-northward and away from the US east coast by week’s end. Should that trough unexpectedly become stationary, that would change things.  At this point, that scenario is unlikely.

If you’ve noticed that this summer hasn’t stacked up to many others in recent years…you’re right.  The Buffalo National Weather Service recently came out with the average July temperatures…which were some of the coolest since Buffalo began taking records.  July 2009 was the 6th coolest July since 1871 and the 2nd coolest since the records began at the airport in 1943.  Typically, Buffalo sees eighteen 80 degree days during the month and this July we only saw 2!  We are now in the first week in August and saw two 80+ degree days already in Buffalo.  A cold front that will cross the region tonight will bring our temperatures back to the L-M 70s for Wed-Thurs…then things will really warm up in time for the weekend as a warm front lifts north of the area.  Although there will be the chance of a few showers or T-storms on both Saturday and Sunday this weekend…on Sat we’ll get to the L80s while Sunday will easily get into the U80s with areas inland getting possibly into the L90s.  Sunday could easily be the warmest day we’ve seen all summer.  The old record to beat this Sunday in Buffalo is 95…so we won’t reach that since there will be a brisk SW wind off the lake…however it will be HOT nonetheless.  Interestingly in the first few days of August alone we beat the number of 80 degree days we had in the entire month of July!

If you’ve noticed that this summer hasn’t stacked up to many others in recent years…you’re right.  The Buffalo National Weather Service recently came out with the average July temperatures…which were some of the coolest since Buffalo began taking records.  July 2009 was the 6th coolest July since 1871 and the 2nd coolest since the records began at the airport in 1943.  Typically, Buffalo sees eighteen 80 degree days during the month and this July we only saw 2!  We are now in the first week in August and saw two 80+ degree days already in Buffalo.  A cold front that will cross the region tonight will bring our temperatures back to the L-M 70s for Wed-Thurs…then things will really warm up in time for the weekend as a warm front lifts north of the area.  Although there will be the chance of a few showers or T-storms on both Saturday and Sunday this weekend…on Sat we’ll get to the L80s while Sunday will easily get into the U80s with areas inland getting possibly into the L90s.  Sunday could easily be the warmest day we’ve seen all summer.  The old record to beat this Sunday in Buffalo is 95…so we won’t reach that since there will be a brisk SW wind off the lake…however it will be HOT nonetheless.  Interestingly in the first few days of August alone we beat the number of 80 degree days we had in the entire month of July!

Still another in a long series of unsettled weeks coming up. The upper trough continues to be in a favorable position to send a series of short waves in our direction, after such an active severe weather day on Saturday and somewhat less active day on Sunday. Early indicators don’t show much in the way of severe weather potential this week, but hydrological issues may come into play with such saturated soils and high-running creeks. Even the 2 days which looked to be essentially dry back on Friday–Monday and Tuesday–have modest chances for isolated convection, with more widespread activity developing on Wednesday, and another disturbance getting here on Friday. Tuesday will include a warming trend with some downsloping to begin with. However, it’s harder to heat the boundary layer when the soil is so wet. At least an early look ahead to next weekend–while not a lock–looks mostly promising.

As milder conditions return for this week, along with gradually increasing humidity from Tue into the wknd, conditions will be unsettled at times. The axis of a mid level trough and the positioning of a ridge to our east will feed a generally southerly flow into our region, with some occasional convection developing from higher amounts of precipitable water from the SE Atlantic seaboard. This type of pattern favors heavier cells over the higher terrain of PA and the srn tier, with a little less left for the Niag Frontier. Still, there will be considerable rainfree time. The actual temperatures will be slow to nose up, but with the higher dewpoints it will definitely feel more summerlike.

Temperatures will continue to run below average, with particularly cool nights, on Monday and Tue.  A storm system passing to our north will drag some seasonably warm temps in for Wednesday, with highs reaching the low 80s in most spots.  The Storm Prediction Ctr has WNY at Slight Risk on Day 3/Wednesday.  However, as of now, the precipitable water looks very limited with that system, and I just don’t currently see this as potent a setup as this past Saturday.  Bottom line:  Severe seems unlikely, though not impossible–jet dynamics won’t be bad.  While a couple of lingering shwrs can’t be ruled out on early Thursday, and a few may need to be mentioned in the extended outlook for later this week into the weekend–the vast majority of the time will be rainfree–and getting cooler again.

Temperatures will be below the norm for this holiday weekend, but the 4th will still be a fine day with a Nice but Coolish Night of the 4th.  Cool air aloft may bring just enough instability to cause a few clouds to mix in with the sunshine…maybe a few more on Sunday.  Monday will have a weak short wave coming nearby, and that will likely leave us with Limited Sun and the possibility of a few stray showers (the NAM is more definitive about this, but in the 72-84 hr time frame, its reliability slips).  There continue to be signs of moderating temperatures arriving by next Thur-Fri.  However, the NCEP 500mb Mean Ensemble shows another trough getting carved out over the NE by early the following week.

Abundant sunshine both Mon-Tue (though some clouds will build in spots Mon afternoon) with seasonable temperatures.  The approach of a low pressure system to the upper midwest with its warm front ahead of it will increase the risk of shwrs & tshwrs by later Wed into Wed evening.  Some leftover lighter showers appear slated for Thur.  There may be some limited sun on Friday, with a few shwrs & tstorms are likely to develop, with more widespread activity currently showing up for Saturday, and the chance of some leftover shwrs on a Partly/Mostly Cloudy Sunday.

As we close out the weekend and head into a brand new week, an unsettled weather pattern will continue to unfold across WNY.  A stationary front Sunday evening will gradually move further south allowing spotty showers to end across the southern tier.  This same front will lift northward on Monday allowing for scattered showers and t-storms to develop in the afternoon and evening.   It’ll become increasingly humid Monday night into early Tuesday as a cold front tracks  toward WNY with scattered showers and t-storms,  but drier, more refreshing air returns later Tuesday and on Wednesday with partly sunny skies.  Another disturbance arrives on Thursday with more hit or miss showers and t-showers.  But early signs point to clearing skies as we push into next weekend along with seasonably warm temps in the 70s.

After Sunday, any day this week will feel milder by comparison. But no summerlike warmth is in view through the week.  We may reach the low 70s on Friday, but will likely be in the mid-upper 60s most days though next weekend.  Very limited moisture is crossing the region on Monday into the evening, but it’s no “biggie.”  Another surge of somewhat greater moisture will arrive by Wed AM, with drier conditions returning for Thursday into the weekend.  While the weekend is not a lock at this early point, things are looking up for a mainly dry weekend.