In case anyone didn’t notice, there is plenty of water vapor in the atmosphere this afternoon, and plenty more to come into Tuesday evening. The Storm Prediction Center has WNY & northern PA at Slight Risk for Severe Tstorms with damaging gusts. However, the abundant cloud cover has held down heating. That, combined with the stiff Lake Erie wind is keeping the atmosphere less unstable across the Niagara Frontier thus far. Any stronger storms which develop later today would be more likely Well S & SE, away from the lake’s influence. The humidity stays high tonight, with the best chance for scattered showers & TStorms in the early evening. On Tuesday, chances for showers & TStorms will be greater in the afternoon. SPC again has much of our region at Slight Risk for Severe Tstorms, but that risk appears mainly south and east of Buffalo, rather than closer to Lake Erie. Behind a cold front, humidity will drop back on Wednesday, even though a disturbance may yet kick off a few garden variety showers. A dry air mass will then stay in place Wednesday night into Saturday. Thursday will be seasonably cool, with readings edging up Friday & Saturday. By Saturday night or Sunday, an approaching disturbance will probably bring a few rounds of showers & tshowers across parts of the region. Timing and coverage remain quite uncertain at this point. Another cold front will be approaching late in the weekend, with readings dropping back early next week.
No extreme heat is in sight. The upper air pattern will favor troughing redeveloping over the Great Lakes from time to time, with the mean expressing that troughing. Currently, there are also no indications of extensive warm ridging near us in the next 16 days. However, there are no indications of lengthier cool and wet periods either. For agricultural purposes, precipitation should be sufficient to avoid frequent reliance on irrigation.