Muggy conditions will continue into Tuesday, although temperatures will not be as warm on Tuesday.  A cold front crossing the region will bring Sct Shwrs & Tstorms Tuesday, mainly PM. While precipitable water will be quite high Tuesday, the dynamics to make strong or severe storms will be marginal.  A bubble of relief arrives for Wednesday, with somewhat lower humidity, but a warm front will be approaching by Thursday AM.  A vigorous upper trough will send unsettled and muggier conditions back in here Thur into Friday, ahead of significantly cooler conditions for the wknd.  While a few stray showers will be possible Saturday, most of the wknd should be dry.  That vigorous trough should help turn Hurricane Bill–which is likely to become  a Major hurricane-northward and away from the US east coast by week’s end. Should that trough unexpectedly become stationary, that would change things.  At this point, that scenario is unlikely.

Still another in a long series of unsettled weeks coming up. The upper trough continues to be in a favorable position to send a series of short waves in our direction, after such an active severe weather day on Saturday and somewhat less active day on Sunday. Early indicators don’t show much in the way of severe weather potential this week, but hydrological issues may come into play with such saturated soils and high-running creeks. Even the 2 days which looked to be essentially dry back on Friday–Monday and Tuesday–have modest chances for isolated convection, with more widespread activity developing on Wednesday, and another disturbance getting here on Friday. Tuesday will include a warming trend with some downsloping to begin with. However, it’s harder to heat the boundary layer when the soil is so wet. At least an early look ahead to next weekend–while not a lock–looks mostly promising.

As milder conditions return for this week, along with gradually increasing humidity from Tue into the wknd, conditions will be unsettled at times. The axis of a mid level trough and the positioning of a ridge to our east will feed a generally southerly flow into our region, with some occasional convection developing from higher amounts of precipitable water from the SE Atlantic seaboard. This type of pattern favors heavier cells over the higher terrain of PA and the srn tier, with a little less left for the Niag Frontier. Still, there will be considerable rainfree time. The actual temperatures will be slow to nose up, but with the higher dewpoints it will definitely feel more summerlike.

Temperatures will continue to run below average, with particularly cool nights, on Monday and Tue.  A storm system passing to our north will drag some seasonably warm temps in for Wednesday, with highs reaching the low 80s in most spots.  The Storm Prediction Ctr has WNY at Slight Risk on Day 3/Wednesday.  However, as of now, the precipitable water looks very limited with that system, and I just don’t currently see this as potent a setup as this past Saturday.  Bottom line:  Severe seems unlikely, though not impossible–jet dynamics won’t be bad.  While a couple of lingering shwrs can’t be ruled out on early Thursday, and a few may need to be mentioned in the extended outlook for later this week into the weekend–the vast majority of the time will be rainfree–and getting cooler again.

Temperatures will be below the norm for this holiday weekend, but the 4th will still be a fine day with a Nice but Coolish Night of the 4th.  Cool air aloft may bring just enough instability to cause a few clouds to mix in with the sunshine…maybe a few more on Sunday.  Monday will have a weak short wave coming nearby, and that will likely leave us with Limited Sun and the possibility of a few stray showers (the NAM is more definitive about this, but in the 72-84 hr time frame, its reliability slips).  There continue to be signs of moderating temperatures arriving by next Thur-Fri.  However, the NCEP 500mb Mean Ensemble shows another trough getting carved out over the NE by early the following week.

Abundant sunshine both Mon-Tue (though some clouds will build in spots Mon afternoon) with seasonable temperatures.  The approach of a low pressure system to the upper midwest with its warm front ahead of it will increase the risk of shwrs & tshwrs by later Wed into Wed evening.  Some leftover lighter showers appear slated for Thur.  There may be some limited sun on Friday, with a few shwrs & tstorms are likely to develop, with more widespread activity currently showing up for Saturday, and the chance of some leftover shwrs on a Partly/Mostly Cloudy Sunday.

After Sunday, any day this week will feel milder by comparison. But no summerlike warmth is in view through the week.  We may reach the low 70s on Friday, but will likely be in the mid-upper 60s most days though next weekend.  Very limited moisture is crossing the region on Monday into the evening, but it’s no “biggie.”  Another surge of somewhat greater moisture will arrive by Wed AM, with drier conditions returning for Thursday into the weekend.  While the weekend is not a lock at this early point, things are looking up for a mainly dry weekend.

As showers spread slowly north Tuesday afternoon, they will tend to weaken somewhat.  All in all, rainfall coverage over the next few days will be uneven.  There will be a better chance for more widespread lt to moderate rain overnight tonight, and then precip will again be more cellular in nature–with maybe a few tshowers Wed and Thur afternoon.  We will also be “muggifying” to some extent by Wed-Thur.  Obviously, what rainfall we get is badly needed to bring shallow soil moisture up to par.  A somewhat cooler airmass will arrive on Friday, though there could still be a few showers.  Weekend fcst confidence is less than I’d like at this point for Saturday, but most evidence points toward cool temperatures  to develop–can’t rule out a few Saturday shwrs.

The peek-a-boo warmup that was in, then out, is solidly back in for Wed-Thur this week.  A weak cool front will take temps back down from almost summery to seasonable for Friday into Sunday. Saturday and Sunday look comfortable and dry at this point.  Monday may be a little muggier and a little shakier, with limited moisture out ahead of a trough.  We’ll also be watching an area of low pressure which may take on tropical characteristics later this week in the Gulf.

After a second frosty night on Monday night and still some valley frost the next night, a nice warmup will arrive on a downslope wind Wednesday, with temps jumping into at least the low 70s. Much later Wed night, another vigorous storm system passing to our north will bring a round of Shwrs & Tstorms, followed by Windy and Showery conditions on Thursday–possibly quite windy. Drier air arrives late Thur through Fri night, but another low and its warm front may bring us a few periods of Shwrs & Tshwrs for parts of Saturday, and a nearly stalled front to our SE may allow for some more Sct Shwrs on Sunday, especially to the SE.