Don Paul

Back to Reality by the Weekend, preceded by almost-as-nice weather much of the Work Week

September 29th, 2014 at 1:34 pm by under 4 Warn Weather

We still have some warm weather to get through this week in this incredibly pleasant pattern we’ve been in for so many consecutive days. While this week will not be quite as flawless as last week ( a few showers develop Tuesday, more numerous showers develop Friday), high temperatures will remain well above the average of 66 into Friday. On Friday, though, a strong cold front will be advancing into WNY, with numerous showers & possible tstorms, along with gusty winds. Behind that front, readings will drop below average for the weekend and early next week. It will be much cooler during the weekend, but not anything we haven’t already experienced in the last few weeks. However, Saturday will be on the windy side, and there may be some lake effect showers over the hilly terrain (for the most part). Signs are strongly pointing to a Saturday with something of a raw feel in the air, as will be rather breezy as well. Sunday should bring a little more sunshine with afternoon temps in the upper 50s.

The weather will be turning chilly for a few days, as I described above. But as of this posting (Monday afternoon) there are no signs of a drastic, long-lasting pattern change to unseasonably cold weather.


Autumn Begins on the Calendar, but Not in terms of the Weather Pattern

September 22nd, 2014 at 9:43 pm by under 4 Warn Weather

An enormous ridge of high pressure—a fair weather system–will take shape during this week, and dominate our weather into early next week. It’s not often I can make such a statement so far in advance with confidence (actually, I began talking about this pattern in the middle of last week), but this time around will be the exceptional case.  “High pressure” means greater density, and greater weight to the air mass. That means more sinking motion in the lower atmosphere, and THAT means the downward motion will tend to “squish the clouds.” Nightime temperatures will be comfortable, and daytime highs will move above the average of 68-69 degrees into the low-mid 70s…all with virtually no chance of rain in WNY. This ridge may give way just a bit around next Monday-Tuesday to a weak cold front dropping down from Quebec into northern NY, bringing some clouds as temperatures which may be just a very few degrees cooler, but still a little above average. There may be a chance of some showers returning by next Tuesday or Wednesday. However, even that chance is beyond the useful range of computer models to predict precipitation.

As of this Monday night (the 22nd) posting, there are no signs of a drastic pattern shift back to chilly weather within the 16 day range of extended global models.

And, this is from my Facebook page: To counter all the Fake Forecasts on FB, I thought I’d post a real one, from the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Ctr. They are currently projecting a weak tendency toward above average temperatures across all of the northern US, including our region, no clear tendency on precip–for the period of November thru January. CAVEAT: Winter outlooks issued this far in advance do not demonstrate high forecast skill in most years, and CPC’s winter outlook last October fared poorly in the midwest and eastern U.S.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=2


On the Cool side this week, especially Thursday; Brief Wknd Warming, Shaky Sunday

September 15th, 2014 at 9:14 pm by under 4 Warn Weather

Daytime high temperatures will run below average this work week, particularly on Thursday. But a brief though noticeable warmup will develop for the weekend. After the Monday night rain, little measurable rainfall is likely (as of this Monday night posting) during the week and into Saturday. A cold front crossing the region Wednesday night may set off a few sprinkles, and temperatures will bottom on Thursday–which will be cooler than the rest of the week. A storm system approaching the northern Great Lakes on Saturday will pump up some genuine warmth on a SSW flow, with Saturday’s high temperature heading well into the 70s (average high is now down to 72). By Sunday, this storm’s system’s trailing cold front will be approaching, and triggering a period of showers & possible tshowers for a portion of Sunday. Temperatures should still be mild ahead of the cold front, most of Sunday. As opposed to the Miami game weather conditions, wind may be more of a factor this time around for the San Diego game, along with that period of showers. Behind that cold front, below average temperatures will return for the following week, especially Monday-Wednesday.

Elsewhere, abundant moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Odile may cause flash flooding problems in parts of the SW later this week.


Gather Ye Warmth While Ye May

September 8th, 2014 at 9:58 pm by under 4 Warn Weather

There’s a tortured title if ever I’ve come up with one! In fact, much cooler weather will arrive in a few days. And, I’m confident we’re done with the mid and upper 80s we had last Friday. But that doesn’t mean we’re headed into a permanently chilly pattern just yet. The air mass which arrives for Saturday looks like the coldest one so far for this season, but it won’t be a record breaker or all that extraordinary for this time of the year. It appears most days next week will bring below average temperatures to the Great Lakes as well. Even then, however, there will be some ups and downs within that pattern. After Saturday’s chill, signs are pointing to beautiful, cool conditions for the home opener with the Dolphins (Maul the Mammals! :D )

The average high for the day as of this posting is down to 74. So, high temperatures in the 60s should not be looked upon as anything very unusual. After next week, there are some hints in our most extended range model guidance of a return to more of a west-to-east flow, allowing more Pacific air to replace Canadian air. If that verifies, temperatures would be more nearly average.

So, if you’re seeing doom and gloom on social media, especially Facebook, you’re not getting it from me or 4Warn Weather. While I have no reason at this early point to believe we may have a very mild winter, I can also say I have little confidence as to how this winter may be headed. There is so much hype at this time of the year on FB (and it gets worse every year), I would only ask that you BE SKEPTICAL! If you don’t know the source, don’t believe it! A little of the hype comes from professionals who should know better, but most of it comes from charlatans, high school kids, hobbyists who enormously overestimate their understanding of weather and interpretation of data, and a few keyboard sociopaths.

Let the reader beware.


After a nearly Hot Finish to the week, a Cooler Weekend Arrives–but No “Polar Vortex”

September 2nd, 2014 at 11:03 pm by under 4 Warn Weather

Aside from the Farmers Almanac and a certain private forecasting company’s hype, along with a newspaper article or 2, there is still no sign of any lengthy period of prematurely chilly weather through the 17th of September. I chose that date because that is the limit of the time range (as of this posting) of more reliable global models for forecasting temperature patterns which are of some use, with some reliability. By Thursday and Friday this week, summery temperatures will be back. Readings will be well above average for that time period. Following passage of a cold front Friday night, weekend temperatures will fall back to several degrees below average. In fact, the average high in early September is around 76, so we won’t be too far off the mark. During a near sultry Friday, another cold front will be crossing the Great Lakes and may trigger some scattered showers & tstorms in the afternoon. This activity will become more likely in the late afternoon and evening, and we’ll have to monitor some of those tstorms for intensity. Lingering showers behind the cold front may mar a portion of Saturday. There is uncertainty how long the showers will hang around before drier air pushes in from the west during the afternoon…they’re more likely to linger longer south & east of the metro area. Sunday is more of a sure bet, with dry & seasonably cool air in place, and abundant sunshine likely. Temperatures will slowly edge up during early and mid week, next week. Readings should again be above average by Wed-Thursday, when shower chances will increase again. Somewhat cooler (but NOT cold) air may return by the following weekend.

As for “what’s shakin’” with el nino (this section is for more technically oriented bloggers), key nino region 3.4 has seen an increase to 0.4 degrees above average over the last 2 weeks, which is still .1 degree shy of an earlier peak of 0.5 degrees for an SST anomaly. In any case, ENSO is still neutral at this time–that is, there is no el nino threshold being passed, aside from the necessary 3 months duration of 0.5 degrees above average for el nino conditions to be accepted as ongoing. Probabilities are still at 65% for el nino conditions to develop by early autumn into early winter, down from earlier modeled estimates of greater than 70%. Most ensemble members favor a weak el nino when it develops, but a moderate el nino remains possible (and a relatively small minority of model members show this).

All that aside, much of the warming over the last few weeks is due to the downwelling/warm phase of a Kelvin wave which–eventually–will be followed by some degree of an upwelling/cool phase of that wave. Now, back to general interest for any readers, not just the technically-oriented.

I found it unfortunate that our best and only daily local newspaper chose to publish more nonsense about an utterly unscientific Farmers Almanac winter forecast which I saw while I was on vacation. We may end up having another colder than average winter in the east, but no one has shown reasonable forecasting skill in this time range, under these conditions, to make a scientifically based winter outlook. As silly as the Almanac forecast is, it is even sillier this year, showing cold to colder than average temperatures across the entire lower 48 states. Owing to the ridges and troughs (undulations in the polar jet stream) such near uniformity in cold temperatures across the entire country is all but physically impossible. That’s just not the way the jet stream sets up over any extended period. Personally, I even found some of the rebuttals to this junk hype to be overly tepid, including some remarks from some NOAA people that the Farmers Almanac “might be wrong.” That’s giving them entirely undeserved credibility. Like blind choices in a multiple choice exam, when the F.A. is right, they’re right for the wrong reasons. And they’re wrong, they’re wrong for the wrong reasons. Junk, period.


Now, About All These Winter Outlooks Popping Up in Print and on the Web….

August 11th, 2014 at 9:42 pm by under 4 Warn Weather

(NOTE: I am writing this thread for casual interest readers as well as more intensely interested fellow “weather geeks.” )

Many of you have already seen a couple of outlooks on the web, in social media and a Buffalo News article last week suggesting signs are somewhat ominous for this coming winter. The News article even included an AccuWeather prediction that the dreaded “Polar Vortex” would make an appearance sometime later in September, ahead of a wintrier than average winter.

Some of these predictions may pan out, some may not, some are from educated meteorologists, some are from uneducated friendly fakes whose work is much akin to astrologers (the Farmers Almanacs, whose methodology is based largely on nonsense), and some are from teenage children on social media who have learned just enough about weather to be dangerous.

Know this: seasonal outlooks are markedly different from 1 to 7 day weather forecasts. They operate on different timescales, they necessarily filter out the noise of quick moving fair weather systems and low pressure storm systems, and they paint a much more generalized picture of expected patterns. Their verification rates/track records are far less impressive than the accuracy of near term weather forecasts, and that is to be expected. Much of the time, the signals from nature are weak and poorly defined. Making a summer outlook, which gets less notice, can be even less successful because signals are even weaker as the warm weather season approaches.

One noteworthy exception in making a winter outlook would be the likely development of a truly Strong el nino, as was the case prior to the winter of 1997-98. That was a “super” el nino, and el ninos of that magnitude do correlate with warmer than average conditions across the northern tier of the U.S. and in much of the east. If such an el nino was expected this year, I would have some confidence in predicting a warmer than average winter for our region. But we are NOT expecting a strong el nino. Most models which deal with el nino and la nina are forecasting a weak el nino, with a small chance of a moderate el nino. Weak el ninos are not known to correlate with a warmer winter in the east in general and in our region in particular. So, THAT signal from nature is not as helpful a predictor as one might hope. No 2 el ninos are identical and neither are their impacts. There are many variables/changeable elements which can impact the strength and location of an el nino. As of this posting there is a high (65%) but shrinking probability that el nino conditions will develop by late summer/fall.

There are other variables which have predictability only out to 2 weeks, such as 2 oscillating patterns over the NW Atlantic out to Greenland and Iceland. These Atlantic oscillations can have a huge impact on weather in the east and in our region. But if we cannot confidently predict their status much beyond 2 weeks in advance, that makes winter outlooks even more uncertain. And other variables can impact the status of those variables–even something as obscure as how much snow falls in Siberia in the month of October may affect what position the polar jet stream takes during the winter, as well as the factor of how much arctic sea ice melts in the summer months.

I can go on with the enormous list of uncertain variables, but I’ll slow down here. Winter outlooks are difficult enough even in late October and early November, let alone in early August. In my lengthy experience (and that of other meteorologists), winter outlooks made during the summer months simply don’t work well. IF I were to lean toward one direction or the other, I’d reluctantly say that at this point I don’t see current signs which would lead to a much milder than average winter in our region. But that leaning can easily change by mid Autumn, and I wouldn’t make any plans based on it.

BOTTOM LINE: Any winter outlook you’re seeing now should probably be taken not just with a grain of  salt, but probably the whole salt mine.


Are We Turning a Corner? Probably not, but a Dry Stretch is Enroute

August 4th, 2014 at 8:58 pm by under 4 Warn Weather

This week begins with a few rounds of showers & tshowers crossing parts of the region. As we head into later Wednesday evening, though, all roads seem to lead to a dry stretch lasting more than 1 or 2 days. Will you settle for 4 or 5? It’s been a while since we had that many rainfree days in a row. Following Monday evening’s showers closer to Lake Ontario, another round of scattered showers crossing the region during Tuesday, and a third round probably focusing on the southern tier during Wednesday, a ridge of high pressure/a fair weather system should set up shop close enough to us to keep us dry through the weekend. This is, in fact, the first Monday in at least 4 weeks in which showers were not already showing up up computer models for the upcoming weekend. Temperatures will be slightly below average in this drier air on Thursday, but begin edging back up on Friday and moving above average by Sunday-Monday next week. Another cold front will cross our region around Tue-Wed next week, ushering in some below average temperatures again (but not by too much) for a few days. Extended range guidance suggest more seasonably mild temperatures returning by mid-August. Uncertainty that far out, however, is abundant.

There are no signs August will do a complete flip-flop into true summer heat through the 20th. But it appears this next weekend will be on the most solid footing we’ve seen for any weekend in the last month. On a Monday, I can’t say a 100% dry weekend is a “lock”, but at least the odds are looking more favorable at this early point in the week.


Just What I/We Need; Another Tough Weekend Forecast!

July 29th, 2014 at 2:13 pm by under 4 Warn Weather

Even on Monday of this week, it was already becoming apparent this next weekend would again present a challenge to meteorologists in the forecasting process…more on that in a moment.

Another unseasonably cold area of low pressure near the Great Lakes is again bringing well below average temperatures to the Great Lakes and parts of the midwest. As the difference in temperature between the warm lake waters (and, during the day, the somewhat heated land) and the cold air about a mile up increases, the more unstable/”bubbly” the lower atmosphere will become. Water vapor will be lifted up into the cold air, condense, and produces showers and some thundershowers over the Great Lakes and parts of our region. Some tshowers may contain small hail, and this temperature lapse/dropoff rate will also make conditions more favorable for a few waterspouts by Wednesday. After an unsettled Thursday, the atmosphere should be settling down Thursday night into most of Friday, but not for long.

On Saturday, a poorly organized area of low pressure to our SW will begin to feed moisture up through Ohio & PA into our region. This will result in an increasing likelihood of at least a few showers & tshowers, with chances currently (Tuesday post) looking greater over the hills to the S & SE. Similar conditions may prevail again on Sunday. At this point, neither day is looking to be a washout. So, it’s still possible we could end up as fortunate as we were during this past weekend. However, virtually every computer model shows SOME convection/shower & tshower development getting to portions of WNY at times during the weekend. That means no meteorologist could objectively predict on this Tuesday that we WILL be mainly rainfree. Both you and I will have to be patient for the details to emerge, as the mechanism to make these showers  will be somewhat weak and diffuse.

After we’re through with this spate of September-like weather through Thursday, temperatures will edge back up closer to average on Friday into early next week. Most extended range guidance suggests more seasonable temperatures more of the time as we move toward mid-August. But I also have to tell you that the ups-and-downs which will probably occur in that time range can not be foreseen this far in advance.


July Has Been No June, and Won’t Be When All Is Said and Done

July 21st, 2014 at 9:05 pm by under 4 Warn Weather

As many of you know, June was quite a bit warmer than average. The monthly average daily high temp was 3 degrees above normal, and we ended up with the 11th warmest June on record. As for July, the trend is opposite thus far. Through the 20th, we’ve had 9 days above average and 12 below average. While we’re in a warmer than average start to this week, cooler weather will be returning for Wednesday night and Thursday. The overall trend for next week will be for below average temperatures. Bottom line: July is quite likely to be cooler and, probably, wetter than average.

After the current warmup, a cold front will cross the region Wednesday. Behind it, Thursday’s high temperature will be 5-7 degrees below average. Readings will gradually moderate on Friday into a seasonable and pleasant Saturday. Most extended range guidance on this Monday evening point to an area of low pressure moving back into the Great Lakes during Sunday. That would mean the development of scattered showers & tshowers for a portion–probably the afternoon–of the day. The threat of some showers will continue into early next week, depending on the timing of another cold front or two. A dip/wave in the jet stream will allow Cool Canadian air to return to the Great Lakes by Tuesday next week, lasting through much of the week. (No, I’m NOT calling it a “Polar Vortex”!)  Readings may moderate again by the final weekend in July, but there are no current signs of a big warmup. In the immediate future, the thunderstorm potential for Wednesday’s cold front doesn’t look all that impressive at the moment. It appears rainfall amounts and coverage will tend to be greater south & SE of the metro area during Wednesday afternoon. Parameters for strong to Severe tstorms look very marginal/very low probability.


The Long-Advertised “Vortex”–Polar or Otherwise–is Poised to Arrive. But It’s Just a Visit….

July 14th, 2014 at 2:23 pm by under 4 Warn Weather

From the Monday afternoon vantage point: With fairly moist air in place, an upper level disturbance will trigger spotty showers & tshowers, becoming more numerous later in the day. The best chance for this convection will be over the hilly terrain S & SE of the metro area. The atmosphere will remain somewhat unstable overnight, with the approach of the now infamous (polar/nonpolar) vortex, so a few more showers & tshowers may still pop up. On Tuesday, temperatures will run below average, as that vortex increases its influence. Some scattered showers & tshowers will pop up occasionally. The stiffening breeze will put a chill in the air. Most computer guidance shows drier air in place by the time of the Canalfest Parade. However, when you have a cold upper disturbance over warm lake water, I can’t rule out a few lake induced evening showers. The coldest air will be in place midweek. The difference in temperature between 72 degree Lake Erie and the atmosphere about a mile up will cause some lake effect clouds and showers to pop up, mainly over the interior, on Wednesday. Thursday should be mainly dry, and temperatures will begin to moderate more noticeably by Friday.  There is considerable uncertainty about shower chances for coverage and timing on the weekend. At this point, there are no indicators of a complete washout on either day, but some showers & possible tshowers will probably push into WNY on Saturday from the south. The best chance for the most activity currently appears to be to the south of Buffalo. And early signs favor less activity–if any–on Sunday. Monday also currently looks to be dry. Temperatures should be closer to average Friday-Sunday, and may edge up to above average by Monday.