A long-advertised cooling trend is still shaping up for the middle and latter part of Thanksgiving week.  While there are no signs of true arctic air reaching us, temperatures will drop below normal as we get into Wednesday night and Thanksgiving Day.  Some Shwrs may mix with wet snow Wednesday night, and indications point to a Raw Thanksgiving holiday with some Rain & Snow Shwrs that could even turn to all snow before the day is out.  Temperatures look marginal for any significant lake effect snow at this point, but a slight shift in the orientation of the polar branch of the jetstream could makes things interesting.

El Nino has continued to strengthen over the last 4 weeks, and already attained Moderate intensity. Most computer models project additional strengthening and persistence through the coming winter. Moderate el ninos do correlate with higher probabilities of warmer than average temperatures much of the time during the cold weather season.  The correlation with snowfall amounts is weaker, and still leaves quite a bit of uncertainty. However, should el nino attain Strong intensity, the probabilities for warmer temperatures in our region become high confidence, and a tendency for lower snowfall amounts becomes more likely.  BOTTOM LINE: I am projecting a Warmer than Average Winter Season for our region, though this does not mean the pattern won’t break down and become wintry from time to time.  As for snowfall, the correlation between a Moderate el nino and reduced snowfall is weak, so snowfall potential remains very uncertain.  Further explanation follows below.

No extreme chill during the week, but chilly enough–especially by Thursday. A short wave and a cold front will set us up for a cold NW flow. As the cold advection continues Thursday night, current indications point to enough lift being generated synoptically by the wave to allow some limited accumulation on the hills to the south.  A pattern change will begin to evolve on Friday, but especially over the wknd into early next week, as a ridge builds in the east and a warming SW flow develops.  An el nino analysis follows below.

Mild Pacific air will continue to dominate into Saturday, although a bit of cooling can be expected Thur night and Friday. An area of low pressure will edge some showers into WNY by late Friday, increasing overnight and into Saturday, probably diminishing later Saturday.  Sunday will be Chilly & Breezy with only a Few Shwrs.  Signs continue to point to a Chillier finish to the month, into the beginning of November.

After a pretty nice Columbus Day, some showers will likely move in later in the evening and continue into at least a portion of Tuesday, with chillier temps moving in and staying for awhile.  Any lake shwrs Tue night will be lighter, on a NWly flow, but a few flakes could mix in over the hills.  850mb temps will be cold enough for flakes or a mix midweek, but no significant disturbance will be around to tap the cold air.  By Friday, a deepening low in the southern plains may move toward the Appalachians.  Earliest indications point to a cold rain developing for Friday, but there might be a mix in spots at the outset.

More Yes than No to that answer.  Widespread synoptic rain will arrive SW to NE during Friday into early Friday night.  Good jet dynamics might spring a rumble of thunder with that, too.  But the warm frontal rain will break up into Sct Shwrs later Friday night.  Several models have been remarkably consistent in placing WNY within the storm system’s dry slot for Saturday.  If that placement is correct, only a Few Shwrs will be possible, with some Limited Sun. On Sunday, temps will drop off a few degrees, but only a Few Shwrs are likely. Bottom line: If the dry slot placement is correct, most of this weekend will be rainfree. A midweek storm system next week will be followed by a cooler and unsettled pattern.

Not very.  Fortunately, we haven’t been in the heart of the growing season during this spell, so its negative impacts have been minor. Early week showers will thin out on Tuesday, with a few more possible in spots on Wed and Thur afternoons.  The confidence level in the extended outlook (6-14 days) is unusually low due to great disarray in the computer models and their many ensemble members.  But the low confidence outlook suggests a dry and less humid Friday and a dry start to next weekend, but with an Ohio Valley low bring Sct Shwrs back by Sunday, with some cooling from Sunday into early the following week.

Still no signs of a major precipitation potential headed our way.  A couple of cold fronts will cross the region this week, but with little moisture.  An area of low pressure moving slowly to the ENE from the Gulf states will extend a trough to the NE of its center, but that trough appears to be targeted too far to the east to have much of an impact here.  Early indications show a chance of a little rain again getting to about Allegany, Potter, McKean and maybe Catt Cos by Thursday.  Several models and their ensembles favor a cool Saturday next wknd, but mainly dry conditions.  El nino–still classified as weak as of last week–still seems to be helping to produce considerable wind shear in the Atlantic basin.  So, even though we’re close to the climatological peak for tropical cyclones, the Atlantic is mainly quiet.

a weak upper level low in the Ohio Valley will still be in a position on Tuesday to spit out a few shwrs/tshwrs (again more likely in the hills) and that possibility will still be there on Wednesday, though only a small chance, mostly near PA.  Most models and ensembles keep us mainly dry later this week through the weekend.  But there is no “lock” on that forecast.  The European wants to bring an upper low into our region later this week, which would bring more widespread showers, and the NAM has shwrs getting close to WNY from the east, where a low will be off the coast.  Meanwhile, shallow soil moisture is low (deep moisture is fine), and some rain wouldn’t hurt.  A system near the Azore will probably become a tropical cyclone early in the week.

Temps will move back up to and a little over 80 by Tuesday, with still comfortable humidity.  A cold front crossing WNY Wednesday will be short on moisture, but still produce a few shwrs & tshwrs.  The cooldown behind the front will drop temps to a few degrees below normal for Thur-Fri.  The details on the upcoming weekend are sketchy, but it does appear there will be a threat of Sct Shwrs & Tshwrs moving in for a portion of Saturday, followed by an unsettled Sunday–with temps moving back to below normal.  Nothing extreme–but “coolish.” Our 14 day 80+ degree streak ended on Sunday–longest such streak since Aug 2005.  Tropics somewhat quieter again.