Longer range global model averages favor above normal temperatures much of the time for the next 2 weeks. There may be occasional brief cooler periods, as was the case on the 12th and 13th, but warmer high pressure aloft will favor readings running above normal for this time of the year for the majority of the remainder of the month. The period from Friday the 14th into next week will be a warm one, with maybe a hint of minor cooling midweek, next week, but then warming is likely to resume later next week. Odds also weakly favor above average precipitation in the Great Lakes, but these indicators are hazier and less well defined than those indicators for temperatures.
The warm period we’re about to enter is not connected in any measurable way with our currently vigorous el nino. El nino’s impacts in the summer months tend to produce wind shear and sinking air over the Atlantic hurricane basin, and reduced tropical cyclone activity. A summer el nino has little known effect on our weather in this part of the country. El nino’s main impacts occur in the late autumn and winter, if it is a strong el nino. Although most models which deal with ENSO, the El Nino Southern Oscillation, project a strong el nino to be likely in the late autumn and winter, some of us (myself included!) have been overly confident of the likely impacts here and in the far west.
In fact, there are quite a number of other variables in the atmosphere and in the interface between the Pacific surface and the atmosphere which can change the impacts of even an unusually strong el nino. While odds favor a dent being made in the terrible CA drought by Pacific storms, a strong el nino in the winter of 1965-66 did not produce that heavy rainfall. And, while odds favor milder temperatures in the north central and NE U.S. during a strong el nino, there are other oscillations over both the eastern Pacific and the North Atlantic which can lessen those impacts, too. At this time, I would say probabilities of a milder winter this coming season than during the last 2 very harsh winters are higher, but far from conclusively high.
A detailed explanation appears in the article below written for informed laypeople. We have to communicate uncertainty where we know it to exist. To knowingly hide uncertainty is just plain bad science:
“Clickable” link appears in 1st comment below.