The Long-Advertised “Vortex”–Polar or Otherwise–is Poised to Arrive. But It’s Just a Visit….

July 14th, 2014 at 2:23 pm by under 4 Warn Weather

From the Monday afternoon vantage point: With fairly moist air in place, an upper level disturbance will trigger spotty showers & tshowers, becoming more numerous later in the day. The best chance for this convection will be over the hilly terrain S & SE of the metro area. The atmosphere will remain somewhat unstable overnight, with the approach of the now infamous (polar/nonpolar) vortex, so a few more showers & tshowers may still pop up. On Tuesday, temperatures will run below average, as that vortex increases its influence. Some scattered showers & tshowers will pop up occasionally. The stiffening breeze will put a chill in the air. Most computer guidance shows drier air in place by the time of the Canalfest Parade. However, when you have a cold upper disturbance over warm lake water, I can’t rule out a few lake induced evening showers. The coldest air will be in place midweek. The difference in temperature between 72 degree Lake Erie and the atmosphere about a mile up will cause some lake effect clouds and showers to pop up, mainly over the interior, on Wednesday. Thursday should be mainly dry, and temperatures will begin to moderate more noticeably by Friday.  There is considerable uncertainty about shower chances for coverage and timing on the weekend. At this point, there are no indicators of a complete washout on either day, but some showers & possible tshowers will probably push into WNY on Saturday from the south. The best chance for the most activity currently appears to be to the south of Buffalo. And early signs favor less activity–if any–on Sunday. Monday also currently looks to be dry. Temperatures should be closer to average Friday-Sunday, and may edge up to above average by Monday.

54 Responses to “The Long-Advertised “Vortex”–Polar or Otherwise–is Poised to Arrive. But It’s Just a Visit….”

  1. Don Paul says:

    Speaking of the Lake, it slipped back to 71 this morning, putting it 1 degree below average after a very lengthy period of above average.

  2. Don Paul says:

    Interesting note…the 12z ECMWF is delayed, according to a Broadcast Meteorology FB page, because of a wind turbine farm outage which feeds power to the European Centre. No new output at this hour.

  3. Don Paul says:

    Sunday is looking unsettled in all of today’s available guidance, while Saturday currently looks solid. A quick shot from an unseasonably cool trough brushes again later this week, with an unusual return to to that pattern redeveloping next week. I’ll have more on this sometime this evening with a new thread.

  4. Don Paul says:

    NEW THREAD IS UP.

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