Several Rounds of Convection This Week; Possible Hvy Rain Late Week, then Much CoolerMay 12th, 2014 at 10:55 pm by Don Paul under 4 Warn Weather
A wavy cold front will be in WNY by Wednesday and may provide a pathway for a few waves of low pressure. Depending on the precise path these waves follow, locally heavy to excessive rain could reach parts of WNY by late Thursday into Friday AM. Preceding that, we’re likely to have several rounds of Showers & Tstorms, with abundant rainfree time. There are no current signs of an organized severe weather outbreak in our region. But just this Monday evening something of an unexpectedly ferocious, small outbreak developed in NE Ohio. With abundant water vapor in the air (precipitable water) and occasional small impulses of vorticity crossing our region, isolated strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out. The muggiest day of this stretch will probably be Tuesday, when interior high temps could reach or exceed 80. Unlike last week’s 82, this time the dewpoint will be higher, making things feel stickier.
Again, the exact placement of this cold front will be critical to total rainfall potential, as well as temperatures. Wednesday may be a few degrees cooler, but the warm, humid airmass may stay in place east & SE of the metro area, on the warmer side of the front. After the heavier rainfall pulls off to the east and the front passes farther to the east, temperatures will be much cooler (as forecast since last week) for several days. Soaking rain MAY still be with us Friday AM, but should be diminishing from W to E. Friday’s high temps will be in the mid-upper 50s. Saturday will be a little unsettled and cool with a few sunny breaks and a few showers. High temps will again be well below average…mid-upper 50s. Sunday looks brighter and drier, with a high near 60. There is good agreement in extended range guidance that temperatures will be heading back to above average by Wednesday or so next week, as upper level ridging rebuilds and gives us at least several warmer days.