Warmer Weather Arrives, but Isn’t Ready to Dig in Its Heels

May 5th, 2014 at 9:44 pm by under 4 Warn Weather

The warmup we advertised all last week for later this week is still on the way, along with some Scattered convection at times. So, the “big picture” hasn’t changed much. As for details, the approach of a warm front midweek will probably set off some weak convection by late Wednesday, picking up at times Wednesday night into portions of Thursday. The proximity of this front and some elevated instability (bubbly air aloft out ahead of the warm front) will probably fuel a few of these tshowers. In fact, by Thursday afternoon and evening, our surface airmass will take on an “Almost Muggy” feel, with daytime highs in the 70s and overnight lows from the upper 50s to near 60–accompanied by higher dewpoints. The timing for actual warm frontal passage is still in question on this (Monday) evening. Once we get into the warm sector and that boundary has passed to the N & E of us, activity will slacken. As we move into Saturday, a wave or 2 will move up along a cool front and bring us a few rounds of showers & possible tshowers Friday night into portions of Saturday. There are signs much of this moisture will pull off to the east Saturday evening. On Sunday, the Canadian GEM is an outlier with a short wave bringing a return of showers for part of the day. But both the GFS and ECMWF seem to keep us mainly dry and seasonably mild Sunday. Monday becomes more of a question mark. The ECMWF rebuilds a strong ridge in the east, which blocks the approach of a cold front and its convection until Wednesday PM-Thursday, while the GFS brings some convection back to WNY as early as Tuesday or even later Monday night. Right now I’m leaning toward the ECMWF and its ensemble mean, but confidence remains shaky at best (both periods in the CPC outlook are of Below Average confidence — 2 out of 5), so I know I’m not alone in eyeing this model and ensemble disarray warily.

The ensemble means do bring some troughing back closer to the east central or eastern US between the 14th & the 16th, which would drop temps back below average for a few days. The ECMWF mean flattens the flow later in the period, while the GFS takes longer to show a zonal flow. Again, the zonal depiction late in the period may possibly be tied to the smoothing of the wide spread between ensemble members, rather than a realistic representation of a zonal flow. That idea doesn’t necessarily mean the troughing will persist. The ensemble member spread could also hide some modest return to western troughing and eastern ridging…too early to tell.

119 Responses to “Warmer Weather Arrives, but Isn’t Ready to Dig in Its Heels”

  1. Don Paul says:

    I talked about the potential for excessive rainfall late last week…The 00z GEM seems more in line with what I’d seen in the ECMWF last week. But I have miles to go in my analysis.

  2. thinksnow14 says:

    As always time will tell…I still have not been able to get on the home soccer field at Raymond ave…luckily we can use Cheektowaga central but if that much rain is realized all options will be off…I hope for our local agriculture that this rain is not realized either Lisa

  3. Dave from Roc says:

    Yesterday was about as good as it gets, weather-wise, by any region’s standards. With that Rocky Mountain blue sky, though, it was definitely a day to apply the sunscreen.

    And, taking advantage of this great weekend, The Flower City broke a very appropriate World Record…previously held by England. Here’s the quick time lapse video:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pCk8arrqS08

  4. Don Paul says:

    As of this AM, the 00z ECMWF brings us plenty of rain at the end of the week, but takes the heaviest surge just east of us. The GEM is a little closer. Both have cutoff lows developing over the western/NWrn Grt Lakes causing the retrograding. The GFS is outlierish, not forming a cutoff until after the subtropical moisture is well east. In any case, this is threading the needle to excess, but the “heaviest” rain is not imminent at this point. Still looks very wet and, for now, I’m tossing the 06 GFS.

  5. Dave from Roc says:

    Don – Does the second half of this week look warmer than models previously suggested late last week? I ask because I notice the models seem to be showing a ripple of 10c+ air still surging up across are region right through Thursday. I wonder if this would mean a milder, almost muggy rain event, rather than a chilly, raw rain event?

  6. Dave from Roc says:

    *are = our. Yikes.

  7. Don Paul says:

    A wavy front would definitely retard the arrival of the chillier air, but not eliminate it.

    There seems to be good agreement on some ridging redeveloping my midweek next week for several days in the east central US, following retreat of the cutoff.

  8. Don Paul says:

    Afternoon synopsis:

    With a frontal boundary nearby, a few showers & tshowers will likely cross the region later this afternoon. Coverage will be somewhat spotty. Afternoon temps are likely to reach the mid 70s inland, but remain in the 60s at the lakeshores, with limited sunshine and moderate humidity. Shower & Tstorm chances will probably increase late tonight into early tomorrow as the atmosphere becomes more unstable/bubbly, and a few downpours will be possible. Overnight low temps: low 60s, possibly cooler toward Lake Ontario. AM Sct Shwrs & Tstorms may be more numerous from the metro area northward Tuesday morning and then become more thinly scattered in the afternoon. It will be a little warmer and somewhat on the muggier side–but far from oppressive. High temps will range from the low 70s near the Lk Erie shore and Niagara River to the low 80s farther east and south, with a 10-15 mph SSW breeze. A very slowly approaching cold front Tuesday night will keep the chance for Sct Showers & Tstorms, with a low from the upper 50s to near 60. The proximity of that nearly stalled cold front on Wednesday will keep the chance of Showers & Tstorms in the forecast. With more cloud cover and the front probably drifting just east of Buffalo, high temps may drop back a few degrees to the low 70s but it will probably stay warmer well east and SE on the warmer side of the front. Wellsville may reach 80.

    EXTENDED RANGE: Computer models are suggesting the frontal boundary will stall near us for Wednesday night into Thursday evening. This may provide a pathway for a couple of waves of low pressure which could bring soaking to even excessive rainfall. At this early point, odds slightly favor the heaviest rainfall totals to be east of the the metro area, but just a slight nudge westward in the path of these waves could bring that very heavy rain back toward eastern Lake Erie. The meteorologists of 4Warn Weather will keep you updated on rainfall potential. Thursday high temps will be cooler, in the mid 60s. Heavier rainfall potential may linger into Thursday night and possibly early Friday. Showers should begin to diminish slowly from W to E with much cooler temps, in the upper 50s west to low 60s Genesee Valley. Saturday will be Partly to Mostly Cloudy & Cool with a few showers possible. High: upper 50s to low 60s. Sunday looks somewhat nicer, though cool; Partly Sunny skies with a high of near 64.

  9. Don Paul says:

    NEW THREAD IS UP.

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