It’s That Time of the Year; A “Blocky” Pattern Will be Evolving…

April 21st, 2014 at 2:14 pm by under 4 Warn Weather

and that often leads to an unpromising pattern, depending upon what part of a block you find yourself under. In this case, there are signs of a near cutoff low getting closer to us by April 29-early May, and those signs are strongest in the ECMWF mean. If we were to get stuck in the “sweet spot”, a cutoff ridge, that would be a good thing. At this early juncture, that appears less likely than being near a cutoff low moving from the central US to near the Great Lakes. Cutoff systems are those which are cutoff from the higher speed westerlies which keep weather systems moving along. Late April-mid spring is the time when cutoff systems become more climatologically favored. The synoptic weather traffic jams can sometimes impact many parts of the mid-latitudes and northern latitudes.

When we’re stuck under a cutoff low, a lengthier dreary and cool pattern can result, with some showers from time to time. The GFS is also showing signs of this blocky pattern, with the Canadian less so inclined. This is the first time this spring I’ve seen the ECMWF ensembles so strong on a cutoff, so this will need to be watched carefully. For now, I’m not taking this a good sign for the extended range.

In the meantime, cooler weather will arrive Tuesday with mostly AM showers, and then another round of lighter showers Tuesday night which could be mixed with a few wet snowflakes toward Wednesday AM at the highest elevations. Wednesday will be chilly, with some sun returning by afternoon, and Thursday will be dry and sunnier with seasonable temps. Friday will be milder but wetter with some rounds of showers, followed by a damp, cool Saturday with falling temps in the afternoon–though not much accumulating rainfall. Sunday looks chilly (upper 40s) with limited sun and mostly dry conditions, though a few light showers or mixed showers can’t be ruled out. There should be some moderation early next week before the approach of any cutoff low later in the week.

168 Responses to “It’s That Time of the Year; A “Blocky” Pattern Will be Evolving…”

  1. Dave from Roc says:

    Since most of lake Erie has been wide open to soak up some warmth for a few weeks, and thus somewhat milder, I wonder if that milder water mixed in with the newly open water at the far northeastern tip of lake Erie. Just speculation on my part, but that might be why the lake temp spiked. In any case, glad to see it.

  2. thinksnow14 says:

    Dave is there concern out your way regarding the lilac festival??? Haven’t witnessed too much in the way of growth around here from bushes

  3. Dave from Roc says:

    TS – There is some concern for the opening weekend of the Festival, but since it lasts for ten days, it’s probable that the lilacs will be near peak for the final weekend. I know that as of a couple days ago, nearly all bushes had leafed out, and a few were just beginning to show some tiny flowering. The much warmer weather later this week will definitely speed the process up significantly, so that’s very promising. The great thing about Highland Park is, even if the lilacs aren’t out yet, the place is filled with all sorts of brilliant flowering trees. The cherry blossoms are nearing spectacular full bloom currently. Funny thing is, though, it sometimes seems more people come for the food and entertainment across the street than the stroll through the Park.

  4. Sled Hill says:

    37! Woo hoo, let’s go swimming! All jokiong aside, that is a nice jump. Pool is open and is at 52.

  5. Don Paul says:

    Afternoon synopsis:

    High and middle clouds will mask some of the sunshine this afternoon, and temps will remain below average, reaching just the upper 40s at the lakeshore and the mid-upper 50s farther inland. Wind will be light. Partial cloud cover should provide enough insulation tonight to prevent any frost formation. The low will range from the low 30s in valleys to near 40 at the lakeshores. On Tuesday, sunshine will increase AM. A light NE to NW wind combined with abundant afternoon sunshine will make for a pleasant day. The high will range from 50 at the immediate lakeshore to the upper 50s inland. Wednesday will bring sun, then more clouds, with a warm front to our SW possibly triggering a few showers in the afternoon. Temps will edge up to the low-mid 60s. The proximity of that warm front may trigger some Sct Showers & Tshowers Wednesday night into Thursday morning, with those showers moving off to the NE in the afternoon as the warm front goes by. This frontal passage will allow readings to head to the low 70s most locations.

    EXTENDED RANGE: By Thursday night into Friday, the air will take on an Almost Muggy feel, with higher humidity and warm temperatures. Friday will have the chance for a few Shwrs & Tshwrs, but there should be some sunshine as well. High temps will head toward the mid 70s. A trailing cold front from an area of low pressure will make showers somewhat more widespread later Friday evening into Saturday, diminishing later in the day. Saturday’s high will still be above average, likely in the mid 60s. Sunday currently looks dry, with skies becoming Partly to Mostly Sunny with high temps in the low-mid 60s. Monday should be mainly dry as well.

  6. Greg says:

    Don, are there still signs of a western ridge and an eastern trough returning in the long range forecast?

  7. Don Paul says:

    I should have a new thread by mid-evening.

  8. Don Paul says:


Leave a Reply