Adjustments on the Wednesday Snowstorm? For South of the Metro Area, ProbablyMarch 10th, 2014 at 9:51 pm by Don Paul under 4 Warn Weather
This Monday evening, our in-house Rapid Precision and Vividcast models are both nudging what will be an intense low pressure storm system closer to us on Wednesday. What this may mean is less snow south of the metro area (more mixed precipitation may hold actual snow accumulations down quite a bit), but a stripe of genuinely Heavy Snow farther north, on the Niagara Frontier. As we’ve been telling you, the storm impact will be enhanced by strengthening NE to N winds producing lots of blowing and drifting north, and bringing Lake Ontario enhancement into the picture. The good news in these 2 models is that not much snow will yet be on the ground for the start of the AM commute on Wednesday. In fact, rain is depicted closer to PA. However, jumping with both feet into a model shift like this is risky business, and needs to be blended in with other models to avoid the flip-flop syndrome.
So I’m dropping amounts back to the south, but my dropback is less than these 2 in-house models show. The Heavy Snow for the Niagara Frontier looks at least as intense as it did in earlier runs. The RPM brings totals close to a foot, with Vividcast going several inches higher. This time around in the man-machine mix, man will have the heavier hand in projecting amounts.
Travel will deteriorate more rapidly by late Wed AM into the early evening, and the afternoon commute looks tough. Temps will still take the plunge in the afternoon, and head into the single digits by Thursday AM, with a high of just 10-14. That rapid recovery to the upper 30s is still on for Friday; Seasonably Chilly conditions for Saturday and Colder conditions for Sun-Mon.