No Warm Pattern Change Currently in View, but We WILL Get Some Relief

March 3rd, 2014 at 12:15 pm by under 4 Warn Weather

There are no real signs of a fundamental warm pattern change going out through at least March 18th. However, we will get somewhat warmer. We HAVE to. It is March, and the sun angle is getting higher in the sky. Climatology virtually dictates the kind of cold we have this Monday, March 3rd will become a thing of the past. With the higher sun angle, the high Arctic and polar region will no longer be able to produce the unseasonably frigid air masses which have been so common for the central and eastern parts of the nation this winter.

And what our extended range guidance does show is more frequent incursions of Pacific air mixing in with and modifying the Arctic air reaching the Great Lakes over the next couple of weeks. Again, this is not to say we’re going to be experiencing many days with above average temperatures. It means we will have more days with tolerable chill instead of frigid conditions. The “bright” side to that is a reduced risk of renewed ice jam flooding, and a prolonging of the ski season. The negative side is the likely prolonged ice season on Lake Erie (the Great Lakes are more than 90% ice covered as of March 2nd), which makes an early spring much less likely downwind of that Lake. Over the next couple of weeks, the MEAN will be below average temperatures. But from day to day, there will be more ups and downs, and more days during which spending some time outdoors won’t seem like such a shivery idea.

324 Responses to “No Warm Pattern Change Currently in View, but We WILL Get Some Relief”

  1. Tundra says:

    I’m concerned about schools as well on Wednesday… sounds like a tough call. We’ve had quite a few “hairy” afternoon commutes this year after a not-so-bad morning commute. I know school admins are weary about the # of snow days used but student safety should be priority #1. If that means losing a day or two of spring break, so be it.

  2. thinksnow14 says:

    Agreed tundra…this may fall into the “it was fine in the morning” type of decision only to be in a heap of trouble on the commute home.

  3. LisaZ says:

    Some schools will without much doubt cut into Spring breaks if they close Wednesday. A few have used up their allotment of snow days already.

  4. Don Paul says:

    New thread is up.

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