No Rest for the Winter Weary…at least for a While

February 24th, 2014 at 9:47 pm by under 4 Warn Weather

As we’re staring down the barrel of another very cold to occasionally Bitter cold week, it’s almost tempting for a meteorologist to cherry pick for favorable trends in the extended range. It does get tiring giving one wintry forecast after another, but I’m not going to succumb to that temptation.

Fact is, as cold as this week will be, there will be a little improvement in temperatures in the mean for next week. The 500 mb flow flattens somewhat for a few days, allowing more Pacific air to mix in with the Arctic air. That doesn’t equate to mild, but it does equate to more bearable. As I posted on the previous thread, a rapid thaw after this week would again spell probable trouble in the way of increased risk of new ice jams forming. A gradual thaw, of course, reduces that threat (not that we’re looking at anything yet you’d call a thaw). There also were signs over this past weekend that the PNA ridge was going to be building and the Great Lakes trough would be moving toward reamplification around March 9-10. As of today, that western ridge looks a bit less permanent and a little more progressive, and the eastern trough looks a bit shallower. If these ensemble mean solutions worked out, we’d be tolerably cool rather than truly cold–after this week. The operational ECMWF today wants to paint some synoptic snow into our region Sunday night-Monday night from a storm going by to our SE, while the GFS keeps that storm farther away.

This week’s snow will be sporadic and spotty, but no major storm is foreseen during the week.

Back to that extended range…there are still no signs of a fundamental pattern shift to western trough/eastern ridge with any staying power. The PNA ensemble and GFS outlook still point to a positive PNA further out in time, near the end of the extended range.

176 Responses to “No Rest for the Winter Weary…at least for a While”

  1. Dave from Roc says:

    This is just incredible. As we turned the Calendar to March, Great Lakes ice cover has increased to 90.5 percent. We’re going in the wrong direction. Check out this NOAA map:

    http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/glcfs.php?hr=00&ext=ice&type=N&lake=l

  2. Dave from Roc says:

    The CFSv2 appears to have done a pretty good job seeing what turned out to be a very cold February for much of the eastern U.S., even when it wasn’t as certain that it would verify back in late January. Well, here’s it’s unpleasant looking outlook for March:

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usT2mMonInd1.gif

  3. LisaZ says:

    The way this month is beginning it might verify, doesn’t mean we won’t end the month on a warm above average note. Average temps will be up near 40F soon. I’ll be keeping my eyes open for a break in this pattern. As of right now the majority of the ensemble members on the CPC website for the PNA show it trending toward the negative after the 16th.

  4. LisaZ says:

    Hopefully the AO going well into the positive should help too. Here are the outlooks for the teleconnections:

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

  5. Don Paul says:

    The AO has been positive though much of the frigid weather this winter.

  6. Don Paul says:

    NEW THREAD IS UP.

Leave a Reply