We Stay Wintry, but the Pattern Will Eventually “Relax” Somewhat.

February 5th, 2014 at 10:49 pm by under 4 Warn Weather

In looking at this harsh winter thus far, as of this posting we are now the 9th snowiest winter in Buffalo record keeping history through February 5th, with records going back to 1871. The Buffalo airport observatory snow total is now approaching what would be considered normal for the entire cold weather season, with plenty more wintry weather to come.

However, the overall upper air pattern will begin to “relax” later next week, allowing more Pacific air to mix in with the cold air masses from the arctic. There will be more ups and downs. In the mean, our temperatures will still be running below average, but not so FAR below average. There should also be a smattering of days in which the temps go above average…days like that have been hard to come by, as if you didn’t know. This same pattern favors above average precipitation, but the details of individual waves/storm systems in the flow cannot be seen beyond about 7 days out. In the next week coming, current indications point to some low impact light snow moving in later Saturday night into a portion of Sunday. There may be another brush with snow by Wednesday afternoon. Most models favor any stronger systems passing well to the south and east of our region, having little impact here during the next week. Of course, we’ll be keeping an eye on those systems for their tracks and intensities at 4Warn Weather.

293 Responses to “We Stay Wintry, but the Pattern Will Eventually “Relax” Somewhat.”

  1. Don Paul says:

    As you surmised, it’s still far out…still not convinced it will stay all snow or mix in w/IP. Have evening runs to get through.

    CPC’s Hazards Outlook has to be done much earlier in the day, and I sometimes disregard it. However, this gives you some idea about the uncertainty concerning the Monday night storm system:

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

  2. Don Paul says:

    And this prognostic discussion on the 8-14 Day Outlook from CPC bears out what I’ve been saying for days. However, I’m not sure their choice to go more with the Canadian ensemble mean might not be a little premature. I’d want to see better agreement with the other means first:

    ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A RETURN IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG SURFACE SYSTEM
    EARLY IN THE PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A FAIRLY
    AMPLIFIED RIDGE/TROUGH SOLUTION ACROSS THE CONUS, WITH AN EXPECTED EASTWARD
    SHIFT FROM YESTERDAY. WHEN EXAMINING THE DAILY PROGRESSION OF ENSEMBLE MEAN
    FORECASTS, THE AMPLITUDE OF THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN STANDS OUT AS
    EXCEPTIONAL. GIVEN THE TENDENCY FOR HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGES NEAR THE WEST COAST
    THIS WINTER SEASON, THIS SOLUTION SEEMS PARTICULARLY REASONABLE.

    Of the indices, the one which fits this ridge/trough progression is the PNA, which shows an upward trend with relatively small spread between members in that time period: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif

  3. Don Paul says:

    NEW THREAD IS UP.

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