Winter Will Retract Its Claws…at least partiallyJanuary 27th, 2014 at 9:40 pm by Don Paul under 4 Warn Weather
After this last bout of brutally cold temperatures begins to fade by Thursday the 30th (it should be noted the Thursday moderation will be accompanied by gusty winds, however), we will be heading into what I call the “Tolerable Weeks.” By comparison, of course, to where we’ve been. The full latitude long wave ridge in the west will deamplify, with assaults by one short wave after another. The flattening of that ridge will allow more Pacific air to mix in with our modified arctic air, and the cross polar flow we’ve endured will shift well away from us. The polar vortex will also shift further east and northeast, aiming any such flow far to the north of our latitude.
In the place of our long wave trough will be a much broader, lower amplitude trough. The axis of this trough will shift to the west central U.S. for nearly a week, and then shift back toward the Great Lakes as we move through the 2nd week of February. That will probably mean colder temperatures, but nothing extreme is in sight during that period. When this trough axis is further west, it will favor more short waves moving up from the SW and probably increasing our overall precipitation. How much of that turns out to be synoptic snow cannot be seen at the time of this posting. And, as per usual, embedded short waves with their ups and downs cannot be seen much beyond day 7 either. But this may not be a dull period–just a more tolerable one. There are no signs in the 16 day period of a reamplification of that western ridge anywhere near N America or even the eastern Pacific. That may change in the 2nd half of February, of course.