Whew! We Now Resume Our Normal Weather….

January 8th, 2014 at 9:46 pm by under 4 Warn Weather

After the Blizzard of 2014, most of us feel we deserve a break. And we will get one, though not without complications. The thaw begins in earnest on Friday, but the further warming and the moderate rain developing during Saturday will heighten the danger of ice jam and poor drainage flooding in parts of WNY. It’s possible as much as 1″ of rain will fall, with temps well into the 40s. Ice jams are already believed to be in place on at least 3 Buffalo area creeks, and possibly the Cattaraugus Creek as well. Following this thaw, we’ll be returning to Seasonably Cold temperatures on Wednesday.

There has been much talk of more “Cross Polar” flow redeveloping later in the month. However, in latest ensemble and model runs, there are no signs of the kind of cross polar flow we’ve been having over an extended period. In the mean, our temperatures will run Below Average much of the time after next Tuesday and especially after the 19th or 20th. We’re not looking, though, at the sorts of extreme anomalies just gone through. In addition, the lone index which looks favorable for a western ridge, the PNA, is not matched (today) by a favorable AO or NAO. The mean flow does, on the other hand, somewhat favor above average precipitation. That+seasonably cold weather MAY = above average synoptic snowfall.

282 Responses to “Whew! We Now Resume Our Normal Weather….”

  1. Dave from Roc says:

    It looks like the operational GFS has finally jumped on board with its own ensemble mean, as well as the Euro and Canadian model, in showing another intense blast of polar air later next weekend. Before, it kept insisting on sweeping the colder air out quickly. It will be interesting to watch things freeze up in the next 7 to 10 days. We saw those photos of Niagara Falls partially frozen…it may freeze over more impressively with this latest round of cold.

  2. Don Paul says:

    NEW THREAD IS UP.

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