A Major and Dangerous Winter Weather Event Monday-Tuesday Night

January 4th, 2014 at 4:41 pm by under 4 Warn Weather

This is my late Saturday afternoon post on my Facebook Pages: It may be tempting to think on a relatively milder day like this that the forecast I’ve/We’ve been giving you concerning early next week may be hype. It’s not. Conditions will still be on the mild side Sunday, so that’s the day to get things which must be done outdoors done. Rain showers will precede this powerful cold front by early Sunday evening, after a day of above average temps. In the wake of this front by the predawn hours of Monday, temps will drop suddenly and the lingering rain will turn to a quick burst of snow, with a flash freeze on road surfaces. For the AM commute Monday, roads will be slippery (but with no heavy accumulation), and strong winds will develop, with gusts of 45 mph likely…possibly 50. Lk Effect Snow will slowly develop by midday and intensify during the afternoon, possibly beginning near the metro area. Heaviest amounts will occur in Ski Country over the course of 2 days, but the metro area will not be unscathed, with some oscillation to the band–which will extend well inland. Within the band, blinding whiteouts will develop due to the strong winds which will persist at least thru Tuesday. IMPORTANT: Wind Chill temperatures will reach depths we haven’t experienced in some years running from the -20s to -30 by Monday night through Tuesday. Wind Chill of this magnitude is Dangerous, and frostbite can occur in mere minutes. Stay in touch with Meteorologists Mike Cejka tonight and tom’w night, and Bryan Shaw on Sunday Wakeup. If you must drive through this coming lake effect snow, make sure you have your fuel topped off, an emergency kit in your car (blanket, energy bars, water, etc) and your cell phone. This will be a Severe Winter Weather Event, far outweighing the bitter cold we just went through.

826 Responses to “A Major and Dangerous Winter Weather Event Monday-Tuesday Night”

  1. Lois says:

    Thanks for the well informed comments on upstate vs.downstate. Agree on the casinos. My observation from out of state tells me that possible addiction adds to a miserable element of population, especially when located in highly populated areas.
    Common sense seems to be missing in US politics and it would be nice to see such prevail, however, it won’t happen in my lifetime! But us downstaters are ready if it does.
    A balmy 17degrees here w/no wind.

  2. Don Paul says:

    Sun has been super active again last few days…this came in a few minutes ago from SWPC:

    Space Weather Message Code: ALTPX3
    Serial Number: 27
    Issue Time: 2014 Jan 08 2334 UTC

    ALERT: Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
    Begin Time: 2014 Jan 08 2320 UTC
    NOAA Scale: S3 – Strong

    NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at

    Potential Impacts: Radiation – Passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights may experience increasing radiation exposures. Astronauts on EVA (extra-vehicular activity) are exposed to elevated radiation levels.
    Spacecraft – Single-event upsets to satellite operations, noise in imaging systems, and slight reduction of efficiency in solar panels are likely.
    Radio – Degraded or episodically blacked-out polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation.

  3. Don Paul says:

    Then, there’s this:


    And this: STORMY SPACE WEATHER: Giant sunspot AR1944 is directly facing Earth and crackling with solar flares. Yesterday, Jan. 7th, an X1-class explosion in the sunspot’s magnetic canopy hurled a CME in our direction. Sky watchers shoud be alert for auroras on Jan. 9th when the cloud arrives. NOAA forecasters estimate a 60% chance of strong geomagnetic storms.

    And this from SWPC: The ongoing S2 (Moderate) Solar Radiation Storm has intensified to an S3 (Strong) event as of 2320 UTC (6:20 p.m. EST) today, January 8. Protons should stay at this same approximate level for the next few hours, then likely take another jump with the passage of the shock ahead of the CME, expected to occur around 0900 UTC (4:00 a.m. EST) tomorrow, January 9. However, this increase is not expected to exceed the S3 level. The CME is forecast to set off G3 (Strong) Geomagnetic Storm activity through January 9 and 10. Aurora watchers should be ready; updates here as things unfold.

  4. Dave from Roc says:

    Any chance of clearing looking north tonight, Don? I’m determined to see the northern lights over lake Ontario one of these days…

  5. Don Paul says:

    In the IR, it looked like there was a little clearing near your shoreline but it filled in again. I wouldn’t count on much clearing for the night of the 9th, but it’s not out of the question. Rain won’t be getting here til late AM, so there might be some breaks.

  6. Don Paul says:


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