Wintry Weather Backs Off Temporarily Later This Week

December 16th, 2013 at 12:41 pm by under 4 Warn Weather

Even as I type this post on Monday, lingering though weakening lake effect snow continues well south, and a little well north of the metro area. After this dissipates, the weak clipper we talked about last week will still bring us a minor snowfall later Monday night into Tuesday AM which will prove barely noticeable in places socked by Sunday evening’s LES blast. In the wake of this system, more significant LES will return later Tuesday night into Wed AM. Most models favor enough of a westerly flow to keep the bulk of this LES below the Buffalo Stowns, a trailing short wave might still be able to produce enough backing of the boundary lyr winds to get this stuff close to the Buffalo Stowns…this will bear careful watching, as accumulations in this band will likely be fairly heavy. And after this dies out Wed night, that’s the last we’ll see of LES for at least 5 days, if not longer.

The long advertised temporary moderating trend will set up on Thursday, with rainshowers moving in on Friday. Temps will drop back a bit on Saturday, but all 3 deterministic models show a well organized low coming up the Ohio Valley on Sunday, bringing widespread rain on the currently projected path. After that storm goes by, a colder pattern (not quite as cold as what we’ve been experiencing the last few days) will return for most of Christmas week. It’s a bit out in time, but the GFS and ECWMF both show a weak clipper approaching toward Christmas Eve, and another possibly better organized one behind it by the 26th. So, we may get a thin fresh coating of new snow to cover up the crustier older snow left after the rain.

Buffalo has a 30 year 57% probability of having 1″ of snow on the ground. I’d say our odds this year in the metro area are a little higher than climatology. However, the probability of 5″ or more is 23%, and I’m not prepared to make a call on that one. Some of it will be contingent on how much old snow survives the moderation and rain.

389 Responses to “Wintry Weather Backs Off Temporarily Later This Week”

  1. Don Paul says:

    It would more typically be New England and/or PA, MI, OH. This was not a big enough ice storm on our side of the border, nor is the population density great enough to require that kind of assistance. Far more assistance is required around Toronto, probably Hamilton and other cities on the west and north side of Lk Ontario.

  2. Thinksnow13 says:

    Agreed. I’m not suggesting that Lisa didn’t hear that but to believe it?

  3. LES Observer says:

    I can confirm LZ’s remarks. There absolutely were power workers from out-of-State throughout Niagara County today. National Grid could not keep up because a number of high voltage lines were down throughout the county, and the outages were scattered all over the county. Trucks were sent in from outside NY. I spoke with a power worker today who resided in South Carolina. I’m not sure how Canada’s power authority handles subcontracting for power outages.

  4. Thinksnow13 says:

    D hauser the funny thing is Don stated the same sentiment I did. Just like the other day regarding lisa’s comments about the ice melting and helpibg out…don also said the exact same thing I did…damage would be done before that happened. Snow will come back…

  5. Thinksnow13 says:

    Well on that note im going to take the high road…you may want to try that sometime.

  6. LES Observer says:

    Sentiments are sentiments. I’m not trying to perpetuate any arguments, I’ll say it again, what LZ posted was factual. If you are in doubt of the damage sustained by the ice storm, I would encourage others on here to drive into Lockport. This may not have been a catastrophe, but it was disastrous for many. There are still several thousand without power in Niagara, Orleans, and Genesee counties. If this was a minor league situation, the power companies would have had the power issues fixed the day of the storm, not nearly 2 days after it hit. Some may not get power back until after Christmas. Mine was restored in Gasport this afternoon.

  7. Lois says:

    To those who are victims of Mothre Natures whims, when witncessing the pictures shown on the WIVB weather news and also with Dave’s pictures, my heart goes out to you. No doubt, this is a Xmas that will be etched in your memories forever.
    As for the poor spirited people on the blog, it’s pitiful. And we sonder why the world is in a constant upset?
    A blessed Christmas to all, and to all a good night!

  8. Don Paul says:

    Knock it off. Period. I don’t have the time or the interest for all these deletions.

  9. Don Paul says:

    New thread is up.

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