Wintry Weather Backs Off Temporarily Later This WeekDecember 16th, 2013 at 12:41 pm by Don Paul under 4 Warn Weather
Even as I type this post on Monday, lingering though weakening lake effect snow continues well south, and a little well north of the metro area. After this dissipates, the weak clipper we talked about last week will still bring us a minor snowfall later Monday night into Tuesday AM which will prove barely noticeable in places socked by Sunday evening’s LES blast. In the wake of this system, more significant LES will return later Tuesday night into Wed AM. Most models favor enough of a westerly flow to keep the bulk of this LES below the Buffalo Stowns, a trailing short wave might still be able to produce enough backing of the boundary lyr winds to get this stuff close to the Buffalo Stowns…this will bear careful watching, as accumulations in this band will likely be fairly heavy. And after this dies out Wed night, that’s the last we’ll see of LES for at least 5 days, if not longer.
The long advertised temporary moderating trend will set up on Thursday, with rainshowers moving in on Friday. Temps will drop back a bit on Saturday, but all 3 deterministic models show a well organized low coming up the Ohio Valley on Sunday, bringing widespread rain on the currently projected path. After that storm goes by, a colder pattern (not quite as cold as what we’ve been experiencing the last few days) will return for most of Christmas week. It’s a bit out in time, but the GFS and ECWMF both show a weak clipper approaching toward Christmas Eve, and another possibly better organized one behind it by the 26th. So, we may get a thin fresh coating of new snow to cover up the crustier older snow left after the rain.
Buffalo has a 30 year 57% probability of having 1″ of snow on the ground. I’d say our odds this year in the metro area are a little higher than climatology. However, the probability of 5″ or more is 23%, and I’m not prepared to make a call on that one. Some of it will be contingent on how much old snow survives the moderation and rain.