The phrase “A Storm to Watch” Comes to Mind….November 24th, 2013 at 4:19 pm by Don Paul under 4 Warn Weather
By Tuesday evening, WNY & northern PA may be under the gun…a snow gun…of highly uncertain caliber. As I’m posting this late on a Sunday (due to expected workload on Monday), there continue to be increasing signs of measurable snow heading into our viewing area Tuesday night from a deepening storm system which has a most favored track taking it into southern VA, then southern NJ. As per usual, track uncertainty on a tighter but critical scale remains high, even if the overall broader track has come together better today. A small shift to the west in the track would bring heavy snow into parts or all of our region, and a slightly greater shift to the west would cause the snow to become a mixture. A shift to the east could leave us with minor snow or snow showers. The speed of the storm suggests the steadiest and heaviest precipitation would occur Tuesday overnight, with somewhat lighter snow showers lingering on Wednesday. On this most favored track, major east coast cities and their airports would be impacted by heavy rain and gusty winds, causing air traffic delays (though not nearly as bad as heavy snow would produce) Tuesday night and Wednesday. In the storm system’s wake, Thanksgiving Day will be Cold with the chance of limited multiple bands of lake snow again on a NNW flow. It will be a cold and breezy Turkey Trot, with a significant wind chill. The afternoon high is likely to be in the mid to upper 20s, with some sunny breaks as well to help with the chill. Some moderation in temperatures will occur next Friday into the weekend, getting back toward the upper 30s by next Sunday.
Here’s the portion for more familiar weather enthusiasts: The 12z GFS and its ensemble mean have come into better agreement with the Canadian GEM and the ECMWF. All 3 operational models keep the heaviest snow just east of the 8 western counties, as do the ensemble means. However, when you examine the individual ensemble members, there is still enough spread so that mixed precip can’t be ruled out, as well as heavy snow–nor can lighter snow be ruled out with some of the eastern members. All in all, however, the probabilities for significant snow have increased, if not exactly heavy, and the probabilities of a “miss” have decreased. Our 15z RPM shows all snow, with moderate to heavy amounts, the heaviest E & S of Buffalo. Just E/SE of Allegany & McKean Co, a mixture shows up. Greater precision is just not possible right now.