More Ups Than Downs for a While in the Temperature Department

October 28th, 2013 at 10:39 pm by under 4 Warn Weather

As I type this post, a Freeze Warning will be in effect late tonight for much of WNY. But the overall trending favors a gradual transition to above average temperatures occurring more often than not over the next few weeks. The western ridge will be “beaten down” by Pacific troughs/storm systems, allowing a mainly zonal flow to dominate by the end of the 1st week of November and into the 2nd. This continues to be a fairly high confidence extended forecast…more on that in a moment.

Within this milder than average mean trend, there will–of course–be ups and downs. Short waves will still buckle the flow, starting with a strong storm system late this week (that will produce winds approaching Advisory criteria by Friday). In its wake will be progressively chillier weather over the weekend, though nothing extreme. Some lake effect may develop in a WNW flow on Saturday, as rain showers. Some moderation will return by Monday, with signs of another short wave toward midweek, next week. Beyond that, short waves cannot be seen in the ensembles.

As for the zonal flow, the PNA ensemble has that index going negative/warm; the AO positive/warm; and the NAO positive/warm. None of this can be tied to the MJO which is weak, expected to remain weak for the next 2 weeks, and which is not propagating to the east.

But for snow/winter fans, I call your attention to the 3 words in my headline: “for a While”. This is not necessarily a sign of how trends are going to go later in the cold weather season…due to the usual variables which are not predictable beyond a couple of weeks.

287 Responses to “More Ups Than Downs for a While in the Temperature Department”

  1. LisaZ says:

    Only had about 1/2″ in Amherst. Most of the snow has vanished since this morning.

  2. Thinksnow13 says:

    CPC is very differnt today than yesterday and the midwestern/central trough is not there in either outlook….

  3. Willie in Alden says:

    Here’s a forecast – heating bills are forecasted to rise some 13-15% this season. Be careful what you wish for from Nature.

    Don, you mentioned some breezy days this week a few minutes ago during your forecast. Does this weekend look breezy or not so bad?

  4. Don Paul says:

    Actually, I went past breezy to Quite Windy by late tom’w…still windy on Thursday. Saturday looks nice, with above average temps returning. Sunday will have a warm breeze, but some showers will likely move in as well.

    More on a new thread later this evening.

  5. Devin in OP says:

    Lake Effect Snow Advisory just issued for Chautauqua County until 6am tomorrow for 3-5″ of snow.

  6. Don Paul says:


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