Hints–Only HINTS–of Some Change in the Pattern later in October

October 7th, 2013 at 10:46 pm by under 4 Warn Weather

There are some signs in the Canadian and GFS ensemble means of some increased troughing from the northern plains into the Grt Lakes sometime around the 18th-22nd. The ECMWF shows very little of that tendency but does not refute it either—it just has a very weak tendency in that direction. Possibly tied into this are hints of a more negative AO and NAO toward that time, and more of a positive PNA. However, those 3 indices have lots of spread between their ensemble members, so they’re anything but “high confidence.” As for the MJO, it is forecast to remain active for the next 2 weeks, but with more uncertainty than in recent weeks both on its strength and how much more it will propagate to the east. There are some fuzzy signs of possible weakening.

So, to avoid cherrypicking, I feel it’s appropriate to write about hints, rather than imply there are clearcut trends. There aren’t, at least not yet. On the last thread, it was brought up that Joe Bastardi spoke/wrote of the greater significance of early October positive snow anomalies in October compared to the rest of the month. Having read at least 2 technical papers by Judah Cohen, I know of no such suggestion on Cohen’s part. I could be wrong. But I doubt Bastardi is right, particularly in light of his history of cherrypicking and sensationalizing in the past.

77 Responses to “Hints–Only HINTS–of Some Change in the Pattern later in October”

  1. Don Paul says:

    Not seeing evidence of any S- potential by Tuesday. Maybe some elevation-driven snow or mixed precip by Wed…more likely Wed night/Thur. Operational Euro & GFS bring the 850 temp to -6. IF that verified, that could even bring some flakes to lower elevations. IF. It’s only Tuesday, and that’s in the less reliable portion of both global models.

  2. Pat says:

    Just tuned up the snowblower, put the mower in storage and got my shovels out. I’m ready for the first whopper. :-)

  3. Dave from Roc says:

    Late next week is actually the average date for the first flurries at BUF and ROC, so it would be right on schedule for a change…(IF) it happens.

    Being at an elevation of under 500 feet, and very close to Lake Ontario & Irondequoit Bay northeast of ROC, my residence tends to be located in one of the last areas to see the rain change over to snow this time of year. That flow will be worth watching though. If it does veer solidly out of the NW with favorable conditions, it almost always means some lake effect for my ‘upper right’ corner of Monroe Co. And, of course, it could get interesting on the western southerntier. We shall see.

  4. Devin in OP says:

    Got the snowtires on the car, fully ready and waiting for the first lake effect snow chase.

  5. Willie in Alden says:

    I gave up putting snow tires on my truck any time before January. Snow tire tread wears a lot faster than regular all-season radials because they use a softer rubber compound. They have to be replaced every 10k-12k miles so it’s best to limit their use as much as you can. It’s good to be prepared but putting snow tires on, getting shovels out, and putting mowers away (which is insane because lawns all around me are still growing wildly thanks to the mild weather this Fall) ain’t gonna bring Winter here any sooner.

  6. Pat says:

    Willie, tongue in cheek of course. Although I did just go to the store to stock up on batteries, food and ice melting compound. Just in case. Lol.

  7. Don Paul says:


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