Hints–Only HINTS–of Some Change in the Pattern later in OctoberOctober 7th, 2013 at 10:46 pm by Don Paul under 4 Warn Weather
There are some signs in the Canadian and GFS ensemble means of some increased troughing from the northern plains into the Grt Lakes sometime around the 18th-22nd. The ECMWF shows very little of that tendency but does not refute it either—it just has a very weak tendency in that direction. Possibly tied into this are hints of a more negative AO and NAO toward that time, and more of a positive PNA. However, those 3 indices have lots of spread between their ensemble members, so they’re anything but “high confidence.” As for the MJO, it is forecast to remain active for the next 2 weeks, but with more uncertainty than in recent weeks both on its strength and how much more it will propagate to the east. There are some fuzzy signs of possible weakening.
So, to avoid cherrypicking, I feel it’s appropriate to write about hints, rather than imply there are clearcut trends. There aren’t, at least not yet. On the last thread, it was brought up that Joe Bastardi spoke/wrote of the greater significance of early October positive snow anomalies in October compared to the rest of the month. Having read at least 2 technical papers by Judah Cohen, I know of no such suggestion on Cohen’s part. I could be wrong. But I doubt Bastardi is right, particularly in light of his history of cherrypicking and sensationalizing in the past.