Warmth Hangs Tough; Uncertainty Increases by Sunday

September 30th, 2013 at 9:05 pm by under 4 Warn Weather

There can be no doubt that temperatures will run well above average at least into Saturday. Despite the record deluge 2 Saturdays back, September rainfall is running a little below average for Buffalo as the month runs out, with 15 above average temperature days in the month. October will begin on a similar note, with at least a brief shakeup by Sunday or Monday as a better defined cold front crosses the region with some Showers & possible Tstorms. Even then, the ensemble means don’t establish any lasting deep trough over the Great Lakes which would allow sharply colder air to enter the picture. I should add, though, deterministic/operational models are in disarray by Sunday-Monday, with the GFS holding that cold front up until Monday in its latest run this evening. The European is faster, with a Sunday frontal passage. An observer familiar with operational models might be tempted to say, based on the past, “go with the European–it’s the best global model out there.” The European has been showing major inconsistencies from run to run, though, so there’s no auto pick here. All in all, there are no current signs of a fundamental pattern shift to a strong western ridge/eastern trough. The AO/NAO/PNA indices will be even less favorable by mid-October. And, the MJO will continue to be active for the next 2 weeks, propagating more to the east. That could have had a negative effect on cooling even while we had the negative AO/NAO.

The active MJO is probably one of the key factors in suppressing Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity this past month. We’re up to “J”, the 10th letter in the alphabet. I have no time to look up the numbers, but I’ll venture a guess that this has been one of the least active Septembers on record, when September is normally a climatology peak period. October will begin in a similar vein, with the predicted active MJO and eastward propagation.

100 Responses to “Warmth Hangs Tough; Uncertainty Increases by Sunday”

  1. Dave from Roc says:

    Joe Bastardi, in his October 5th ‘Saturday Summary’ video, discussed the current snow cover expansion across Siberia. He calls the early snow cover in Siberia “very signficant” to blocking and driving cold air south later in the year. It seems Bastardi is now on to Judah Cohen’s theory. Here’s the video:


  2. LisaZ says:

    From what I’ve read about Joe Bastardi, he is at odds with most scientists in his field. He’s a global warming denialist, an avid critic of the NWS, and he’s been off base with many of his public statements. Here’s an example I found while searching for his name online:

    ” CO2 cannot cause global warming. I’ll tell you why. It doesn’t mix well with the atmosphere, for one. For two, its specific gravity is 1 1/2 times that of the rest of the atmosphere. It heats and cools much quicker. Its radiative processes are much different. So it cannot — it literally cannot cause global warming. — Joe Bastardi, Fox Business, March 9, 2012.[20]

    Physicist Richard A. Muller says Bastardi’s explanation of CO2 is “completely wrong” and “even skeptics of global warming, if they know physics, would disagree with him.” “

  3. lois says:

    Good work, LisaZ. You have my attention.

  4. lois says:

    Global warming is a fact and not being an alarmist but a realist, this is a factor that will affect the future of us all. Right, DP? Meanwhile, I’m not too concerned about the balance of my life, but the balance of all young people and how they will adjust to these resultant extremes. Won’t be easy.

  5. Pat says:

    I’m not too worried about it. So long as the media outlets are talking cold, prolonged, snowy and winter, I’ll believe. Kind of like Ssnta Claus, or a lottery ticket. It makes me happy for the moment. Lol.

  6. lois says:

    That’s the spirit, Pat. Live in the moment.

  7. Don Paul says:

    Actually, that is an ASTOUNDING misstatement by Bastardi on CO2, utterly baseless beyond any debate. I find it hard to believe he said such a foolish thing, but I guess he did. It’s interesting that Judah Cohen would disagree vehemently with his poorly based denialist thinking. CO2 is a greenhouse gas. It is the dominant greenhouse gas due to its duration and its longevity in the atmosphere, and will be for the foreseeable future.

  8. Don Paul says:

    Having been blown away by that Bastardi quote, I think I’ll get a new thread going in a few minutes. I’m still saddened to see talented operational meteorologists become so entwined with their personal political ideology that they become incapable of being less biased in their analyses of climate change/warming issues. I have a friend in another part of the country who is an absolutely brilliant operational met and a true expert on severe local convection and tornadoes…WAY beyond my level of understanding. But he is,unfortunately, so angry and biased he can’t even see straight on the issues pertaining to global warming. His posts on his blog (which will remain unidentified along with his identity) are very revealing, since he at least admits to his political ideology. He’s not as far gone as Bastardi, but it’s sad to see a fine mind lose any semblance of objectivity.

  9. Dave from Roc says:

    Judah Cohen attributes some of the increased Siberian snow cover to global warming and larger areas of open Arctic water. Cohen is among the overwhelming consensus of scientists on Global Warming, and he’s peer reviewed. While I posted Bastardi’s video mentioning Siberian snow cover….these two gentlemen (Cohen / Bastardi) certainly don’t share similar points-of-view on the rest of the science.

    It’s not Breaking News that Bastardi strongly disagrees with the idea that humans / CO2 are responsible for global warming. He’s lost a huge amount of credibility among the scientific community and intellectual thinkers due to his views, but the guy simply doesn’t care. For a professional meteorologist, he’s far too political, and far too UN-willing to evolve on his “scientific” thinking. But, within that, he does seem to have a strong grasp of teleconnections, ENSO, MJO, and other influences like the PDO & AMO. This has allowed him to have some fairly accurate long range forecasts….but that’s not to say he hasn’t had some big busts…like this year’s hurricane season, among others. Nonetheless, it goes without saying that his statement on Fox (provided that it is true and not completely taken out of context) is outrageous and completely false.

  10. Don Paul says:

    He’s had more busts than near hits…many more, in fact. The other teleconnections are quite well known to other more credible long range forecasters, and IMO used more effectively by others. Either way, long range outlooks are a risky game in which to dabble. Verification scores are not all that impressive, although Judah Cohen clearly beat the CPC in at least 3 years of the last decade working on his theories. Now, onto a new thread.

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