It’s that Roller Coaster Time of Year.

September 9th, 2013 at 10:55 pm by under 4 Warn Weather

As I type this post, we’re about to enter into a 2 day period of Midsummer Heat (with some accompanying humidity), to be followed by a sharp cool down late in the week. For some spots well north & northeast of the immediate metro area, the 90 degree mark should be cracked. A gusty SW wind tends to force more heating over northern Niagara, Orleans and Genesee Counties, while it keeps the temps from soaring so high in the metro area. A cold front crossing the region early Thursday will be accompanied by scattered showers & tstorms, which will have to be monitored for intensity, ushering in rather chilly air by Friday morning. On Friday, an upslope flow from the N or NE will favor more cloudiness developing during the day, along with some possible minor lake response for a few showers.  The weekend which follows will feature tons o’ sun, with cool temps on Saturday, and some moderation for Sunday. Another set of fronts will approach our region early next week. The ensemble means (average trends in upper level winds) still suggest above average temperatures prevailing by later next week and possibly into the following week on most days.

The latest ENSO forecast still strongly favors neutral ENSO (no el nino, no la nina) into late winter or early spring next year. By itself, this neutral ENSO would allow more variability and more frequent cold outbreaks in the cold weather season. But ENSO does not operate “by itself” and quite a few other variables/oscillations cannot yet be determined so far in advance. The Climate Prediction Ctr is still indicating better than even odds of another milder than average winter over large swaths of the country, including our region. Me? I’m not so sure, and choose to take a wait-and-see attitude about how this winter may go. I was surprised to learn the Buffalo News actually gave the scientifically worthless gibberish of the Farmers’ Almanac prominent placement while I was off, with their ridiculous prediction for a big storm in the NY area for the Superbowl. Even if it happened, it would have not the slightest thing to do with the Farmers’ Almanac prediction, because their predictions are based on the aforementioned gibberish with no scientific validity or foundation.

The MJO/Madden-Julian Oscillation is expected to weaken by week 2, which will again make conditions for tropical cyclones to develop more unlikely again in the Atlantic hurricane basin. We are close to the all time record for a latest first hurricane in record-keeping history in the Atlantic. September is typically the most active month of all, and there is bound to be more activity by the end of the month than we’ve seen this season. But for the MJO to move toward an unfavorable phase makes even that climatology less likely to bear that much fruit. For a year with a neutral ENSO to have such little activity is unexpected. One of the culprits has been a rich plume of Saharan dust coming off Africa way out into the Atlantic, which discourages tropical development. Another negative is a large area of dry air over the central Atlantic, where cooler sea surface temps prevail…larger than usual. Tropical Storm Humberto, brewing as I type, will probably become a hurricane. But most track models take the storm northwestward and then northward into this dry air, so it will be not be a threat to the US or the Caribbean. An unusual year, to say the least.

88 Responses to “It’s that Roller Coaster Time of Year.”

  1. LisaZ says:

    Well it probably wasn’t from the ash borer which doesn’t attack hickory trees. An insect infestation shouldn’t kill a tree unless it was in bad shape before it was infested.

  2. Pat says:

    Shame about the hickory tree, Lois. They are beautiful. I hope you used the wood to keep the house warm at least. I too am worried about the ash borer. I have more than 5 acres of trees on my lot with many more spread unevenly around and my guess is that 60% are ash. It’ll be sad to watch them succumb.

  3. Devin in OP says:

    Just wanted to say Im surprised its already down to 44 here with a dew point of 43. Have a feeling Ill need to scrape off my car when I get up for school tomorrow at 7am.

  4. lois says:

    Thanks for all the comments. Yes, DP, you are aware of this insect infestation. No, Lisa, this tree was in tip top condition. So….we are left with the warmer climate in this area. Hopefully, the colder weather will be upon us soon. (Sorry, Devin. :) )

  5. Don Paul says:

    Lois, even if more frequent mild winters are partially or strongly linked to climate change doesn’t mean we can’t get a “Coldy and a Goody” now and then.

  6. LisaZ says:

    Here is a list of diseases that can strike hickory trees:

    http://www.treehelp.com/hickory-insects-diseases/

    Of course other things can kill them like fungal diseases and root rot from being drowned in standing water for too long. But it usually takes several seasons for those sort of ailments to take down a mature hickory. Also, Hickory trees rarely grow above 50 ft. If yours was 100 ft tall it would be a record breaker (or some other type of tree other than Hickory).

  7. Willie in Alden says:

    Down to 39F on my outdoor thermometer just off my deck. We sure we’re not going to see some frost up this way? Don’t think the temp has bottomed out yet where I’m at in Alden.

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