In the Still of the Night, and as a Vacation Ends, a New ThreadSeptember 3rd, 2013 at 12:25 am by Don Paul under 4 Warn Weather
Just to get my weather brain in gear before showing up at work on Tuesday, I’ve been browsing through models, ensembles, & analytical discussions from various sources to establish the complex rhythm in my fallow mind which is important in operational meteorology.
You’ll note as you read this we’ve cooled down considerably from recent days. In fact, while I vacationed on Ocracoke Island NC, a beautiful but fairly steamy locale on the Outer Banks, it was generally steamier in WNY than it was there. In 7 years of visits, that’s the first time that’s happened. Not a big sampling, true–but notable.
The cooler weather now establishing itself, with a reinforcement by Thursday, is not a sign summer has breathed its last. Warmer conditions will return for a portion of next week, with above average temperatures likely to resume for a portion of that period before some modest cooling returns for mid-September. Lake Erie has reached 74, which is 3 above average for September 2, and 1 above the average seasonal high of 73. Additional rainfall this week will be sparse in coverage and amounts, as seen in Monday night’s data.
The overall pattern change does not equate to a “sea change” into autumn, since some ensembles suggest a trough further to the west and weak ridging over the Great Lakes and NE, allowing those warmer temperatures to return next week. This year is only the 4th year since 1960 in which there has been no hurricane prior to September 1. The Madden-Julian Oscillation is expected a little this week and more so in week 2 to encourage more tropical activity in the Atlantic basin. This doesn’t mean landfalling hurricanes necessarily, but with expected reduced Saharan dust and SSTs becoming more favorable, September will see a pickup in the development of tropical cyclones. There have been other years in which activity seemed abnormally calm for most of the summer until September and October came along, and this year may fit that pattern.