Summer…”REAL” Summer…has Taken a Summer HolidayJuly 29th, 2013 at 10:34 pm by Don Paul under 4 Warn Weather
A persistent pattern of a ridge over the interior of the west (Warm) and a trough over the Great Lakes and the east (Cool) has developed, and appears likely to stay in place for at least a few weeks to come. There will be minor variations within the persistent pattern. However, without a strong eastern or midwestern ridge, or a Bermuda high to pump up warm, humid air, an extended period of hot & humid weather will be near impossible in the Great Lakes into mid-August. In fact, the scope of this pattern will keep temperatures running average to below average from north of Wichita to central Canada, across the midwest, Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, mid-south, and much of the NE and middle Atlantic states. The coolest part of this vast region will tend to be over the Great Lakes and the interior of the NE. This does not mean a ridge won’t rebuild after the 13th or 14th of August. It just means we won’t see such a ridge until that time at the earliest. This is a high confidence outlook, in that there is good agreement in all the ensemble means.
Of course, this is a vastly different pattern than that of 2 weeks ago, when we endured a week of heat and high humidity. At that time, there was an unusually strong and hot ridge of high pressure near us, blocking any advance of Canadian airmasses. Now we’re in a pattern during which one cold front after another will be crossing the region every few days. It may get cool enough again by Friday night for some lake effect showers to reappear, with chilly air aloft over the warm lakes. Speaking of the lakes, Lake Erie had reached 78 degrees 2 weeks ago, 6 degrees above average for that date. It has since slipped to 73, which is normal for July 29th, and is the normal highest temperature reached during the summer months over a period going back to 1927.