Summer…”REAL” Summer…has Taken a Summer Holiday

July 29th, 2013 at 10:34 pm by under 4 Warn Weather

A persistent pattern of a ridge over the interior of the west (Warm) and a trough over the Great Lakes and the east (Cool) has developed, and appears likely to stay in place for at least a few weeks to come. There will be minor variations within the persistent pattern. However, without a strong eastern or midwestern ridge, or a Bermuda high to pump up warm, humid air, an extended period of hot & humid weather will be near impossible in the Great Lakes into mid-August. In fact, the scope of this pattern will keep temperatures running average to below average from north of Wichita to central Canada, across the midwest, Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, mid-south, and much of the NE and middle Atlantic states. The coolest part of this vast region will tend to be over the Great Lakes and the interior of the NE. This does not mean a ridge won’t rebuild after the 13th or 14th of August. It just means we won’t see such a ridge until that time at the earliest. This is a high confidence outlook, in that there is good agreement in all the ensemble means.

Of course, this is a vastly different pattern than that of 2 weeks ago, when we endured a week of heat and high humidity. At that time, there was an unusually strong and hot ridge of high pressure near us, blocking any advance of Canadian airmasses. Now we’re in a pattern during which one cold front after another will be crossing the region every few days. It may get cool enough again by Friday night for some lake effect showers to reappear, with chilly air aloft over the warm lakes. Speaking of the lakes, Lake Erie had reached 78 degrees 2 weeks ago, 6 degrees above average for that date. It has since slipped to 73, which is normal for July 29th, and is the normal highest temperature reached during the summer months over a period going back to 1927.

65 Responses to “Summer…”REAL” Summer…has Taken a Summer Holiday”

  1. Don Paul says:

    All I’m saying is we could have colder than normal temps IF other variables were in place, such as a negative NAO &/or AO. There is no way to know that at this point.

  2. Andrea says:

    okay thanks! That kind of stuff confuses me sometimes. But I do try to understand. But still hoping for a greater winter than last winter. I love the snow and cold.

  3. Sled Hill says:

    I like your attitude Andrea! We are in desperate need of a good old fashioned winter. Don’t worry about not understanding the stuff you read on here. It’ll come to you. It took me a few years before it started to sink in for me. I have a “cheat sheet” sticky note on my computer to remind me what’s good for winter. Here is a simple list of things you’ll see on here alot in the comming months. (feel free to add anything or fix any mis info anyone)

    Good for winter:

    Negative AO
    Negative NAO
    Positive PNA
    Weak MJO
    Weak ENSO
    Ridge over Greenland (block)
    Vast Siberian Snow Cover in October
    Oh, and a nice warm Lake Erie! :)

  4. Andrea says:

    Thanks sled hill! I will have to keep that in mind next time Don Paul says something like that. Here’s to hoping for a great winter.

  5. WiNdY says:

    SPC has us in the 5% probabilty region (i.e. below Slight Risk) for Day 2 Severe weather.

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