No Temperature Extremes for A While

July 22nd, 2013 at 9:52 pm by under 4 Warn Weather

After the drip, drip, drip of perspiration last week (which became a legitimate public health threat for elderly, asthmatics, and infants in non-airconditioned housing), the minor league mugginess at the start of this week will be very easy to take. Even that mugginess will not stick around long. Another fairly strong cold front will cross the region Tuesday night, followed by much cooler and less humid conditions on Wednesday, and only modest warming by the weekend. Another cold front will likely cross our region by Sunday, with cooler than average temps returning as early as Sunday into early next week.

In the overall scheme of patterns, all the major ensemble means (500mb) show no rebuilding of a strong ridge near the Great Lakes or the NE. This will allow occasional brief warmups, but only to “seasonable” warmth, a little above average. These will be followed by cooler periods, but not so cool (or wet) as to cause many disruptions in outdoor activities. We’ll probably see some scattered showers & tshowers or tstorms on Saturday in advance of that next cold front, in addition to those which occur on Tuesday (this week) in advance of the closer cold front.

None of this is to suggest “we’ve peaked”, since there have been hot spells (some of our hottest) in late summer quite a number of times. The recent extraordinary, brutal 600 DM ridge built itself up, after all, following a period of troughiness/coolness in the Great Lakes, NE & Ohio Valley. It IS to suggest, though, that my confidence is high we’ll see no “heat waves” in the next 16 days (date of this post is July 22).

93 Responses to “No Temperature Extremes for A While”

  1. LisaZ says:

    A little too warm for snow!! It’s chilly, but not that chilly! LOL.

  2. Don Paul says:

    ENSO update: neutral ENSO conditions are favored well into next winter, with the probability staying above 50% through the period. La Nina probabilities only come up to a max of 26 or 27% for a short period, and there is no sign of El Nino brewing, with the highest probability only at 20%. Yes, it has been a while since we’ve had el nino conditions which had a significant impact.

    The MJO has gone back to a weak, incoherent signal.

    As for SSTs in the Atlantic basin, only weak positive temp anomalies are found SW of the Canary Islands, while a weak cool anomaly is found just to the north of that. Significantly cooler than average temps are found in the SE Bahamas and near FL and the ern Gulf, with a strong positive anomaly off the mid-Atlantic and New England seaboards. In my view, conditions for a very active hurricane season have become a little less favorable. There also is more shear at some latitudes than one might have expected in a neutral ENSO, but “other factors” are at play.

  3. Dave from Roc says:

    Quite the chill in the air at Bills Training Camp today – felt much closer to the regular season than training camp season. Skies looked ominous at times, but produced just some light sprinkles. I doubt many of the players would complain, knowing how hot and humid it could be. By the way, for my neighbors to the west planning to visit training camp….better sooner than later. The little Ol’ suburb of Pittsford will also be hosting the PGA Championship beginning next week. Thousands of reporters and spectators from around the World are expected. Traffic will likely be a nightmare as soon as you get off the 490, no matter what time of day you get there.

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