After a Cold Front, some Temporary Relief from the Humidity…and some Dry Weather

July 9th, 2013 at 2:06 pm by under 4 Warn Weather

A few spotty showers during this humid afternoon may become a bit more numerous later today, especially if some sunny breaks develop–at which point some rumbles of thunder may develop. Humidity has actually crept up a bit higher today, making for some discomfort even with ordinary temperatures in the 70s. A few shwrs/tshwrs with sparse coverage may still be around occasionally overnight, with continued uncomfortable humidity. The metro area morning low will be around 72.

On Wednesday, the approach of the 1st of 2 cold fronts will help trigger a couple of rounds of SCT Shwrs & TStorms. SPC continues to have our viewing area at Slight Risk for Severe Tstorms, where the primary threat (if any become severe) would be damaging straight line winds. If we keep overcast skies, the reduced heating would make the Severe risk strictly marginal. With some sunshine, the threat would increase somewhat, especially to the S & E of a developing brisk Lake Erie breeze. That breeze may “shadow” the metro area and a large part of the Niagara Frontier with less chance for tstorms due to the cooling stability from the Lake. The Shwrs & Tstorms will gradually diminish from NW to SE Wednesday evening. Thursday will be somewhat less humid, but a secondary cold front may trigger a few minor showers in the afternoon. Behind that front will be still less humid air, which will stay with us into Saturday. During the weekend, temperatures will begin warming. Saturday will be the more comfortable day to stroll The Taste, with moderate (not high) humidity beginning to build on Sunday, along with a high of 84 or 85. The mugginess will be more noticeable by Monday. However, excepting those few possible lighter showers Thursday afternoon, we should be rainfree into next Tuesday once we get by these cold fronts and their temporary relief from the humidity.

As a warm ridge of high pressure rebuilds during the weekend, temperatures will run above average beginning Sunday for most days through next week. There are no signs of¬† a “heat wave” or anything extreme, but the temporary cooling troughiness over the Great Lakes will not be sticking around for long as 500 mb heights go back above average over much of the country, including our part of it. Initially, this next stretch of mugginess next week looks more stable and less likely to deliver large convective outbreaks into WNY. However, there is some suggestion the flow aloft may again veer from SW to WNW later next week, which would allow short waves to return some rounds of showers & tshowers to the Great Lakes. As you’d guess, there is the usual uncertainty with guesstimating precipitation¬† 8-10 days out. But at least I’m not seeing signs of a return to that trough-to-the-west and Bermuda High to the east, pumping up huge amounts of Gulf water vapor.

257 Responses to “After a Cold Front, some Temporary Relief from the Humidity…and some Dry Weather”

  1. Dave from Roc says:

    This photo is definitely worth a look. It was one of the last photos I was able to capture before I spotted what appeared to be the early stages of a waterspout trying to form over Lake Ontario. I wish I could have captured that possible waterspout, but, at that point, I quickly transitioned into “get the heck off the pier” mode:

    https://rochesterperspectives.shutterfly.com/433

  2. jim in fredonia says:

    hey don
    we have a day planned at darien lake tomorrow and was wondering how the weather looks that way thank you.

  3. Don Paul says:

    I’ll have a new thread on our overall pattern tonight.

  4. THINKSNOW12 says:

    Could that have been our only heat wave of the summer? Going into early August the temps look seasonable. There is no telling yet but towards the end of August you can get some decent cooling

  5. Pat says:

    Hey. Does anyone hear thunder with those cells moving NE? Out fishing and want to get off the water if so. Thx!

  6. lois says:

    At approx.7pm, buckets of rain w/winds about 30-40mph, and one great crash of lightening about 1 mi.fr my house and now a gentle rain. Hubby said, “Don P. didn’t say we were going to get this!” I reminded him, “scattered storms, etc. were predicted.” You’re still ok in my book, DP. :)

  7. junior johnson in friendship says:

    I somehow missed this thread ……

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