Summer Makes an Appearance Just About on Schedule

June 16th, 2013 at 9:06 pm by under 4 Warn Weather

After unsettled conditions at the start of the week, we will get into a drier stretch of weather which (at the time of this Sunday night posting) should extend from at least Tuesday afternoon into Saturday. Following passage of a cold front, temperatures will be on the Seasonably Cool side into Wednesday evening. A large ridge of dry high pressure will bring us abundant sunshine Wed-Saturday (excluding nights! :) ). Readings will begin to move back up on Thursday, and go above average on Friday into Sunday. During the weekend, humidity will increase, and a few Shwrs & Tshwrs will begin to come back into the picture, possibly Saturday night and more likely on Sunday.

Following this peak warmth, temperatures will become more moderate again, as the warm ridge of high pressure begins to drop away from us. Most ensemble means show the peak ridging and warmth returning to the western US, but these means only allow modest cooling in the Great Lakes which would bring temperatures back to near normal, rather than below normal/average. It’s difficult to discern whether or not our precipitation will go back to above average during that transition. But it does appear our Tue afternoon-Saturday dry “spell” will help get some meaningful evaporation going in the muddy fields.

108 Responses to “Summer Makes an Appearance Just About on Schedule”

  1. Dave from Roc says:

    Hey, maybe those systems will collide into a fujiwhara interaction. Eh, probably not, but this pattern does seem unusual for the warm weather season.

  2. LisaZ says:

    I’m not so sure Bruce’s forecast was a good one. My coworker ended up soaked out at Oakwood today when shortly after he tee’d off in the early afternoon.

  3. Don Paul says:

    Dave, this is just more of a wave train along a barely sinking cold front. We have a Flood Advisory up for Gen Co until 12am and for Niag Co until 10:45.

  4. bruce says:

    Don, the post you saw that I guess isn’t posting absolutely was tongue in cheek. Maybe I know than I’m letting on. ;-)

    Lisa, we were north of Lockport, so we basially escaped as far north as possible hoping to avoid the rain, and we did!

  5. LisaZ says:

    In that case good call! I would’ve gone into Canada to play it safe I suppose!

  6. bruce says:

    I’m actually not sure that would’ve worked out great either…I think I heard about good downpours to our west in the NF area, and driving home down transit, the sky looked very ominious directly west.

  7. Don Paul says:

    RPM add’l rainfall totals are down somewhat in the latest run:

    https://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn1/p480x480/1014297_665322690148604_1137440282_n.jpg

    Fluctuations are to be expected, owing to the nature of localized convection, bits of feedback (it ran a little rampant when I was watching Bryan at 11 last night), weak mesoscale disturbances, etc. So, these numbers –as per my earlier post– are far from carved in stone. Locally much heavier downpours are still possible tomorrow, esPECially if we get some unexpected sunny breaks to bubble things up.

  8. Devin says:

    Flash Flood Warning for Northern Chautauqua County where 2-3″ have fallen in the last few hours with much more on the way according to radar.

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