June Continues to be a Downer, Following a Very Warm MayJune 11th, 2013 at 10:49 pm by Don Paul under 4 Warn Weather
In the mean, the pattern will continue to favor below average temperatures and above average precipitation for the Great Lakes and nearby regions. We will have a ridge of high pressure over the west central US, with a trough in the west and a trough over the NE. That favors a NW flow at mid levels of the atmosphere which will deliver disturbances and relatively cool temperatures.
However, it should be remembered that this is a Mean pattern to which I refer. It doesn’t mean we won’t get some warmups and some drier periods in the 2nd half of the month. But when a Mean is so well established, it’s hard for a fundamental pattern shift to gain traction with higher soil moisture and the resulting cooler boundary layer/near surface temperatures.
At the time of this posting–Tuesday night–it still appears a strong (for mid June) area of low pressure will do its worst in the Ohio Valley & PA, rather than in our viewing area during late Wed night into Thursday morning. This storm system will probably spawn a complex of long-lasting violent tstorms Wednesday night. The modeled most likely position of this low would steer such a complex (which may become a powerful derecho (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/derechofacts.htm) from Illinois into PA and possibly parts of VA. We will be monitoring this storm system, in the event there is a northward shift in its projected path.
We will be drying out during a Cool Friday into a lovely Saturday. Sunday holds some question. One NWS global model (known as the GFS/Global Forecast System) brings showers into WNY during Sunday, giving us only one nice weekend day. However, the usually (not always) superior European global model keeps us dry through Sunday. Owing to its superior performance, I will go with the European on this Tuesday evening for next Sunday. Either way, even if we get 2 great weekend days there are still no signs of an extended dry period or true summerlike heat returning anytime soon.