It Usually Follows that June will be Milder than May, but….

June 3rd, 2013 at 1:59 pm by under 4 Warn Weather

Obviously, the heat is gone this week. But there are signs that June may end up being cooler more often than the very warm May we just finished. Certainly, there will be warm periods, but the overall pattern and another oscillating pattern favor more frequent troughing over the midwest and the NE, with the strongest/warmest ridging staying over the SW. That is a mean, and will be interrupted to be sure by variations in the pattern. But if this mean were to verify, it also would favor a wetter than average month. Having said all this, it’s only June 3rd as I post this…so much of it is subject to change.

Later this week, tropical moisture is likely to sweep up from the Gulf and SW Atlantic into the east & NE, with some of it arriving in bits and pieces before Thursday morning, and increasing into Thursday-Friday. There will be occasional rounds of showers & tshowers. Currently, the heaviest rain is likely to fall just east of us, but that’s cutting it a little close. Abundant cloud cover should keep instability limited, which makes severe tstorms unlikely. Some of this wet period may linger into a portion of Saturday, with Sunday being the nicest of the 2 weekend days. Another area of low pressure will begin to increase the likelihood of scattered showers by Monday afternoon. Some overall moderation in temperatures should be setting up by mid month. But as of this posting, there are no signs of a return to mid 80s-type heat in the ensemble means.

123 Responses to “It Usually Follows that June will be Milder than May, but….”

  1. emwhy says:

    Thanks for the links Don, I much like articles like that where I don’t have to think too hard :)

    This morning on TWC the met giving the tropic’s update spoke briefly about the MJO. It was a nice change-up to hear them actually get technical albeit slightly.

  2. Don Paul says:

    Actually, they get quite technical during severe weather outbreaks, when Dr Forbes or Carl Parker are on. I managed to watch them for some time on the day of the Moore tornado and again a week ago Friday for the El Reno tornado. They did great work. By the way, Greg Forbes got his B.S. at Penn State and his Ph.D. at the University of Chicago, where he studied under Fujita himself.

  3. Dave from Roc says:

    I think if more time was spent on some technical weather discussions in the mainstream, it might motivate more people to look things up to learn a little more of the science behind some weather phenomenons…even if that simply means googling some things that they otherwise wouldn’t have. Maybe I’m being too critical, but I’m continually amazed by how many people spend their lives not understanding nor caring about the what or the why behind many aspects of their local weather that impact them throughout the year. Mets like Don Paul and a couple in my viewing area are a refreshing exception, as they go out of their way to discuss the ‘whats’ and ‘whys’ when possible.

    As for Dr. Forbes, I’ve definitely learned some things about supercells by watching his technical discussions. He’s got to be one of the top experts that TWC has ever had. Seems like a nice guy, too.

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