This Warmup Won’t Have Sailing Quite as Smooth as the Last

May 13th, 2013 at 10:41 pm by under 4 Warn Weather

After the frosty start to this week, a warm front will arrive in WNY by Wednesday AM, ushering in some Sct Showers & Tstorms. This will be elevated convection, so it will not be impacted by the cooler lake waters. The models for wind directional change with increased altitude show quite a bit of low level veering/wind shear, so some thunderstorms with rotation can’t be ruled out. After one or 2 rounds of Sct convective cells into early Wednesday afternoon, things should settle down for a few days, with daytime highs averaging in the low 70s. The chance for Sct convection will probably return by Sunday into Monday and Tuesday. The airmass at that time will be warm and instability will be on the increase. An upper level trough may take on an orientation (negative tilt showing in some ensemble means) which would increase advection of warm & humid air and help create better dynamics for strong tstorms by Tuesday. A cold upper level low well to the NW of the surface low will feed cold air aloft and create more impressive lapse rates.

It’s VERY early in the game, but this kind of pattern can be recognized as one which can increase the chance for severe tstorms over parts of the Great Lakes.

84 Responses to “This Warmup Won’t Have Sailing Quite as Smooth as the Last”

  1. Devin S says:


  2. lois says:

    This adjusting to temp.changes doesn’t help in feeling ambitious. It’s a “comfy” 72degrees with hazy sun. Guess we’ll be getting some “dew” later in the form of drops. :)

  3. Adam from Hamburg says:

    Made it up to 85 at the station at Frontier Central Central high school before the lake breeze started. Will this make the atmosphere more ripe for later convection? Enough ingredients for anything strong? Thanks!

  4. Marshall Stack says:

    Probably not this close to the lake…

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