More Uncertainty About May from CPC and ‘Yours Truly’

April 22nd, 2013 at 9:25 pm by under 4 Warn Weather

There is no real confidence any longer that early CPC outlooks for a milder than average spring will bear fruit in May. In the near term, although the CPC is giving us a somewhat positive anomaly for temperatures in the 6-14 Day Outlooks, it should be noted that the 3 indices will be trending in the wrong direction for significantly warm anomalies around here. The AO and NAO are both showing most of their ensemble members trending toward negative territory in May, while many PNA members trend upward. While these indices tend to have a little less impact climatologically as we move into mid-spring, this year that may not be so much the case. A major snow cover anomaly continues over much of the northern plains and nearby Canadian praries, assuring a colder pool of air. That, plus a large area of high soil moisture will also hold temperatures down. Whether these anomalies will still play a key role later in May is unknowable right now.

The MJO has become weaker, and its climatological impact also lessens as the month goes on. ENSO remains neutral, and is forecast by most models as likely to stay neutral through the autumn.

While these near term positive temperature anomalies are the first we’ve seen from CPC in probably a couple of weeks for us, the confidence level for both the 6-10 & 8-14 Day Outlooks is only 2 out of 5, and that may be tied partially to the indices’ trends I outlined above.

In any case, CPC has backed off from the weak warm anomaly it had for our region for May, and gone over to EC. And, since ensemble means are showing no rebuilding of an eastern ridge with any staying power in the next 14-16 days, I concur with that call.

126 Responses to “More Uncertainty About May from CPC and ‘Yours Truly’”

  1. bruce says:

    Thanks for thinking of me, Storm & Lois. I’m still mad at Don for the crummy March and April (I define crummy as non-golf-able weather), but he’s been slowly digging out of that hole with a spectacular May. It’s felt like summer began when May 1 hit…but I know it’s premature and multiple slaps in the face are coming before true summer weather consistently sets in.

  2. Don Paul says:

    Hey, pal Bruce. If April were that “crummy”, Lake Erie would most certainly not have hit 46 degrees (+5 from the average) back on Friday.

  3. Dave from Roc says:

    While I actually prefer those muggy summer days, this has really been a spectacular stretch. With temps just slightly above ‘room temperature’ outside, clear blue skies and dry air, the weather truly can’t be more perfect for the vast majority of the population.

    This weather is also perfect for maximized visibility. For those who are easily entertained like myself, you may be interested to know that there is a hill in northern Wyoming County in the town of Attica where, on very clear days with low humidity, you can see the skyline on Niagara Falls AND Rochester at the same time from the same spot! These photos were taken from Mola$ses Hill Rd, Attica, Wyoming county, on Saturday:

    Rochester:

    http://rochesterperspectives.shutterfly.com/406

    Niagara Falls (On the right side of the horizon – a bit hazy)

    http://rochesterperspectives.shutterfly.com/408

  4. Dave from Roc says:

    I’m also told that a couple roads over between Attica and Warsaw, there is a location where you can see all three – Buffalo, Rochester and Niagara Falls on the horizon at once. I wasn’t able to find it though, as there were too many trees and other hills blocking the western view to see Buffalo.

  5. Jamie says:

    Also a spot in lockport where you can see the Toronto skyline . That is pretty cool.

  6. Jamie says:

    I know the spot well Dave but I did not know you could see Niagara Falls awesome shots

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