Spring Vanishes for the Foreseeable Future

March 11th, 2013 at 9:59 pm by under 4 Warn Weather

Foreseeable future usually means 16 days or so, which is the range of global models and ensembles put into everyday use by operational meteorologists. But as I mentioned Monday evening on the air, 7 or 8 days prior to Sunday’s 65 and Monday’s 63, temperatures in that range simply were not detectable in operational models or ensembles. With that caveat in mind, there is no sign now that 60s will be returning in the “foreseeable range” out to March 25th or so.

Readings will seem dramatically colder after these 60s, but will not be unseasonably cold statistically. Some snow showers will be likely to develop Tuesday night but more likely on Wednesday and Wednesday night, when some spotty minor accumulations will be possible on the hilly terrain. By Saturday, something of an Alberta clipper may bring us some wet snow or a mixture before giving way to slightly colder air again (and drier conditions) on Sunday. So, neither parade will be basking in the incredible warmth we had last year for the St. Patrick’s weekend.

There are mixed signs of a storm system in some models and ensembles for around the Tuesday-Tue night time frame, but there is far too much disarray in that guidance for any confidence on storm path, intensity, or p-type–if it gets here. Most of what evidence there is suggests rain ending as snow rather than a snow scenario, with the operational Euro the deepest of the models, with the most potential for stronger winds behind the storm. Some guidance has a far flatter system, and some members have what there is of it miss us, so it’s absolutely premature to get excited as of this posting–Monday night.

244 Responses to “Spring Vanishes for the Foreseeable Future”

  1. Don Paul says:

    I’ll compose a new thread during the evening, Steve and others.

  2. Willie in Alden says:

    Spring was in the air today. Got up to 48 at my place in Alden and that’s where the temperature stands now. Felt great compared to the last 2-3 weeks!

  3. emwhy says:

    Thanks for those links Dave. Wonder how much this year’s view was skewered by the recent storm activity of the last few weeks.

    Quite a nice day in Williamsville, seen a lot of sun, still a bit chilly, but much easier to handle than last week.

  4. Don Paul says:


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