Close Call Forecast Tue-Wed, followed by Extended Dreary & Chilly, sometimes Cold PeriodFebruary 25th, 2013 at 12:41 pm by Don Paul under 4 Warn Weather
As of midday Monday, most computer guidance tends to favor mixed precipitation rather than all snow for Tuesday night. But note I said “tends”. There is still a chance enough vertical velocity/lift may occur Tuesday night to cool our atmosphere over portions of WNY to convert a mixture to a period of heavy, slushy snow. The probability of that occurring is, in my judgment, less than 50% but far from an insignificant probability. If that changeover occurred, with fairly gusty winds, the accumulating slushy snow could bring down a few tree limbs and powerlines. The 12z NAM, in particular, has some pretty good lift Tuesday night for such cooling. Wednesday’s rates of precipitation look a little less impressive in the NAM, with reduced lift, that the Wed AM period in the GFS. Still have to view the next run of SREF output.
After that, the pattern I’ve been advertising for a long time still is on. Largely dreary and chilly, sometimes just plain Cold. There are signs that weekend highs may just be in the 20s, which is colder than last weeks ensemble means were suggesting. Another storm may move off the NE coast by then, but this one looks to be too far to the east to have a direct impact here with snow.