Close Call Forecast Tue-Wed, followed by Extended Dreary & Chilly, sometimes Cold Period

February 25th, 2013 at 12:41 pm by under 4 Warn Weather

As of midday Monday, most computer guidance tends to favor mixed precipitation rather than all snow for Tuesday night. But note I said “tends”. There is still a chance enough vertical velocity/lift may occur Tuesday night to cool our atmosphere over portions of WNY to convert a mixture to a period of heavy, slushy snow. The probability of that occurring is, in my judgment, less than 50% but far from an insignificant probability. If that changeover occurred, with fairly gusty winds, the accumulating slushy snow could bring down a few tree limbs and powerlines. The 12z NAM, in particular, has some pretty good lift Tuesday night for such cooling. Wednesday’s rates of precipitation look a little less impressive in the NAM, with reduced lift, that the Wed AM period in the GFS. Still have to view the next run of SREF output.

After that, the pattern I’ve been advertising for a long time still is on. Largely dreary and chilly, sometimes just plain Cold. There are signs that weekend highs may just be in the 20s, which is colder than last weeks ensemble means were suggesting. Another storm may move off the NE coast by then, but this one looks to be too far to the east to have a direct impact here with snow.

170 Responses to “Close Call Forecast Tue-Wed, followed by Extended Dreary & Chilly, sometimes Cold Period”

  1. Thinksnow13 says:

    Don is there something to “watch” next week?

  2. Don Paul says:

    There may be, in the Tue-Wed timeframe.

  3. Thinksnow13 says:

    Ha! I guess you won’t have to change the title of this blog for a while!

  4. Tele Tony says:

    Buffalo ski club slopes taken a hit…planing on lifts to restart sat am. Thank goodness for our snowmaking crew,they made lots of snow this winter.

  5. Brian in Orchard Park says:

    Hey Don, do you see and shovelable snow fall on Wednesday (OP/West Seneca areas) or will most or any of the action be below the Buf S. towns….Trying to get my snow plows put away for the season…finally…Thanks

  6. Don Paul says:

    I don’t see shovelable snow anywhere Wed as of this time. It’s your call, but March 11 is probably too soon to put away those plows.

  7. Brian in Orchard Park says:

    Bummer ! But thanks. Just caught that TWC was forecasting 1 – 3 inches slushy accumulations….But you over-ride them !

  8. Nick2 says:

    Anything in the making for next week Don? Early rumblings of a possible east coast storm again, of course the Euro has it right off the coast, which would miss us again. Is this something that could build some steam in the coming days?

  9. Don Paul says:

    That’s not out of the realm of possibilities for the hills Wednesday night.

  10. Brian in Orchard Park says:

    Thanks Don.

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