Arctic Air gives way to a Moderating Trend for a few days, but some cooling quickly follows.

February 19th, 2013 at 2:04 pm by under 4 Warn Weather

After something of an Arctic Blast with some limited lake snow, temperatures will begin to moderate on Friday. Some light snow may approach by late in the day, and there could be a bit of a light mix on Saturday, with a few degrees cooling on Sunday behind a weak low. Temps will moderate again on Monday, but there are signs this warm up will be short-lived. However, the colder air returning by Tuesday or Wednesday next week looks seasonably chilly, rather than true continental polar air.

The overall storm track will remain somewhat active, with a significant severe weather threat by Thursday this week in the southern plains and Gulf states,  and possibly some more storminess again next week. But there aren’t many signs that our region will be under strong influence of any nor’easters at this time. That’s not to say it won’t happen…it’s just that there are no defined signs of it as of this Tuesday posting.

It appears that a northerly flow will keep our temperatures seasonably chilly in the first week of March. Most ensemble means have the axis of a trough in the NE, a little too far east for any nor’easters this impact us. But that IS a long way off. I’m more confident about somewhat below average temps in that period than I am about the lack of storminess for WNY.

 

 

 

 

119 Responses to “Arctic Air gives way to a Moderating Trend for a few days, but some cooling quickly follows.”

  1. Willie in Alden says:

    Agree with you Marius. I don’t try to get under anyone’s skin and I have no idea why people jump to that conclusion so quickly. I just post my thoughts and questions and that’s it. If they get under others’ skin then a chill pill might be in order.

    -Edited for content. No politics on this blog. -DP

  2. Sled Hill says:

    Go ECMWF!

  3. Willie in Alden says:

    I’m rooting for the GFS because it’s American. ECMWF lovers are traitors (I’m kidding of course). The ECMWF is usually the winner though, but there’s another battle between the two models a brewing. ECMWF would favor a lot of snow over the southern tier and the finger lakes region. It’s a low confidence situation. Here is the summary from the NWS:

    CONFIDENCE IN HEADLINES FOR THIS EVENT AT THIS POINT ARE RELATIVELY
    LOW. THIS IS DUE TO THE EXISTING FORECAST UNCERTAINTY WITH
    RESPECT TO NOT ONLY THE LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL
    DEFORMATION ZONE…BUT ALSO HOW PROGRESSIVE THE FORCING WILL BE
    THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL
    FOR WARMER AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER…ALSO RAISING SOME CONCERNS
    AS TO SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AS INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES MAY BE
    NEEDED TO OVERCOME THE LOW LEVEL WARM LAYER…ESPECIALLY ACROSS
    THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. IF THE FORCING IS NOT PROLONGED ENOUGH OR
    THE PRECIPITATION RATES ARE NOT SUFFICIENT…LITTLE IF ANY
    ACCUMULATION MAY BE THE RESULT.

  4. Ben P says:

    I think I could do with less of this reading between the lines of the AFD. This is a forecast quandary, not an epic battle between different models. Low forecast confidence just means that the forecasters will need more data closer to the event to make a forecast with higher certainty.

  5. Ayuud says:

    Any updates Don?

  6. Don Paul says:

    I’m still working on it. All I can say is meteorologists, blown or accurate forecasts aside, will be earning their salaries the next few days. You have to remember, Ayuud and others, my hours don’t match “normal” folks’ hours. I don’t leave the station until after midnight, so my workday starts mid/late morning, not early morning. Hence the lag.

  7. Ayuud says:

    I know Don,Just curious that’s all!

  8. Adam from Hamburg says:

    Looks like the higher elevations win again per latest AFD.

  9. Willie in Alden says:

    This is for 4″+ amounts. It might be based of old data so I’m not sure if this is as current as the latest NWS discussion. You can see there is quite the cutoff to the northwest in Canada. So our neighbors up north could see more snow while I think we are expected to be on the warmer side especially in the lower elevations near the Lake shores.

    http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_04.gif

Leave a Reply