Winter Storm Friday, Maybe Some More Later Next Week

February 6th, 2013 at 8:36 pm by under 4 Warn Weather

No time for great detail on this busy Wednesday evening, but a widespread Winter Storm still appears likely to deliver its heaviest snow to the Niagara Frontier, with somewhat lesser amounts to the south. There is still the question of how much–if any–of an icy mix may develop to the south of the metro area Friday, which would hold down accumulations but make travel more treacherous. There is also the question of a cutoff time to the heavier snow as of this posting, with the NAM and our Vividcast quite a bit faster than the GFS. Most models now are not showing full tilt snowfall rates until we’re into the Friday AM commute, rather than in the predawn hours. If that trend holds true, it’s going to make school delays and cancellations a more difficult call. The wind will be sufficient to cause some Blowing Snow, but currently appears below the threshold for full whiteouts, unless the snow is truly coming down VERY hard. (It will be a different story in NYC-Boston, where the coastal storm will develop powerful gusts by later Friday into Saturday AM, resulting in a Blizzard Watch for Boston to Providence.) If the operational GFS were looking to be a best bet, then I’d have to raise my earlier preliminary estimate for the Lk Ontario counties above the 8-12″ in my early evening forecast. Still working on that, and have to see the next set of SREF output.

Another coastal development may bring more snow to our region and parts of the NE around Thursday next week.

597 Responses to “Winter Storm Friday, Maybe Some More Later Next Week”

  1. Devin in OP says:

    Wow Don the RPM looked pretty impressive for lake effect for the metro and southtowns but like you said you think it’ll go through quicker and not get hung up but if it were to get hung up it’d be pretty interesting,

  2. Don Paul says:

    Vividcast Snow totals aren’t that dissimilar–both show greater amounts (3-4″ higher terrain to the south, with a pocket of 5″ near Arcade. RPM shows less from Buffalo to the Ntowns & NE burbs than Vividcast does. Vividcast doesn’t seem to hang the band up the way RPM did but, surprisingly, has more 1-1.5″ more for Buffalo & north than RPM does. Not a huge difference, but odd. Boundary lyr winds, in any case, don’t seem to support that hang up by the RPM in the metro area in the predawn hrs of Wed.

  3. THINKSNOW12 says:

    Don I noticed the PNA was on a positive uptick towards the end of February to early March and the NAO will be going negative. Is early next weeks milder air going to be short lived?

  4. Don Paul says:

    As we get to early March, despite CPC’s outlook, I think our temps will run somewhat on the cold side. All the ensemble means show it. Have a good night.

  5. Dave from Roc says:

    A sharply negative NAO during early March – a time of the year that is typically active for nor’easters anyway – could mean some stormy times for the east coast and interior northeast. Let’s see if we can get a nor’easter to retrograde west and impact WNY before the end of winter.

  6. Dave from Roc says:

    …Of course, that is IF the NAO goes sharply negative into the beginning of March. Maybe it won’t.

  7. Don Paul says:

    Talk about wishcasting, Dave! New thread is up.

Leave a Reply