Winter Storm Friday, Maybe Some More Later Next WeekFebruary 6th, 2013 at 8:36 pm by Don Paul under 4 Warn Weather
No time for great detail on this busy Wednesday evening, but a widespread Winter Storm still appears likely to deliver its heaviest snow to the Niagara Frontier, with somewhat lesser amounts to the south. There is still the question of how much–if any–of an icy mix may develop to the south of the metro area Friday, which would hold down accumulations but make travel more treacherous. There is also the question of a cutoff time to the heavier snow as of this posting, with the NAM and our Vividcast quite a bit faster than the GFS. Most models now are not showing full tilt snowfall rates until we’re into the Friday AM commute, rather than in the predawn hours. If that trend holds true, it’s going to make school delays and cancellations a more difficult call. The wind will be sufficient to cause some Blowing Snow, but currently appears below the threshold for full whiteouts, unless the snow is truly coming down VERY hard. (It will be a different story in NYC-Boston, where the coastal storm will develop powerful gusts by later Friday into Saturday AM, resulting in a Blizzard Watch for Boston to Providence.) If the operational GFS were looking to be a best bet, then I’d have to raise my earlier preliminary estimate for the Lk Ontario counties above the 8-12″ in my early evening forecast. Still working on that, and have to see the next set of SREF output.
Another coastal development may bring more snow to our region and parts of the NE around Thursday next week.