After the Warmup, The Cold That’s Coming Isn’t As Cold as the Cold That LeftJanuary 28th, 2013 at 2:09 pm by Don Paul under 4 Warn Weather
As we told you last week, the next batch of cold weather will bring us back to below average temperatures, with the coldest day looking to be Friday this week. But it simply will not be as cold as the previous batch. As of this posting there are continuing mixed signals on the strength of prefrontal warm winds Tuesday night and Wednesday AM. The NAM numerical output is quite strong, which is climatologically unusual when the boundary lyr winds are more southerly than SWly. Usually strong to high winds are better indicated in the majority of models–this one’s a tougher call. There may be a convective line with the passage of Wednesday PM’s cold front if the strength of depicted dynamics in some models is realized.
Most of the LES on Thur-Fri should again be occurring over Ski Country and the s tier based on current output. A clipper (strongest in the 00z Euro) will bring a little synoptic snow, shear, and shifting wind directions on Saturday, and another one may approach by Monday. There are signs of some moderation in the ensembles around Feb 6-9th, but not a fundamental pattern shift.