The Calm After the Storm–but not Dead Calm

December 27th, 2012 at 10:51 pm by under 4 Warn Weather

Colder than average temperatures will be with us for the next week, but the next big storm will largely miss us. That system on Saturday may send some very limited snowfall our way, but will be too far to the east to have a direct impact. After that, a series of short waves/lows, each with a cold front, will send reinforcing shots of cold air into the northeast, cutting off any real advancement of milder Pacific air for a while. That means the slopes will be keeping their snows, and good snow making conditions will help the resorts add to their bases most nights. After late next week, the oscillating indices which affect the overall patterns across the eastern US will change to their warmer phases (the AO, NAO, and PNA), allowing that Pacific air to advance farther east for a while. That does not preclude some short waves bringing more active and colder weather for short periods during this pattern shift, but the Mean will be milder.

Speaking of milder, no matter how cold it is between now and New Years Eve, this will be the warmest year on record for Buffalo, going back to 1871.

287 Responses to “The Calm After the Storm–but not Dead Calm”

  1. Dave from Roc says:

    This is kind of ironic; more snow fell from lake Erie’s lake enhanced band yesterday at the Rochester Airport than the Buffalo Airport according to the latest spotter reports. Of course, the silly part is, we’re literally talking fractions of an inch:

    http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=buf&product=PNS&issuedby=BUF&format=ci&version=1

  2. Law Man says:

    Amazing how the winds have stripped down the snow pack. Huge patches of lawn showing through in my yard. Guess I didn’t have that much on the ground before the winds picked up.

    Roads are icy and snowy from blowing snow in some areas. North/South roads especially.

  3. Don Paul says:

    The first thing I’ve seen in my workday is the NCEP 500mb Ensemble Mean, which cuts next week’s warmup off pretty quickly by next weekend. It is more progressive with the trough over the northern plains, and allows seasonable or seasonably cold air to return to the eastern Great Lakes…fairly large change from the recent runs. I’ll let you know what I’m seeing in other ensembles as my work progresses.

  4. Devin in OP says:

    Still a solid 8-10″ all over here. Winds have made the snow more hard which will keep it around a bit longer when we do get the warm up. Definitly not even close to seeing the gr@ss anywhere here.

  5. Don Paul says:

    NEW THREAD IS UP. This one is designed for both you folks and newcomers, and includes a short primer on ensemble forecasting, as well as what today’s ensembles are showing in the way of changing patterns.

  6. Josephine says:

    Good info. Lucky me I recently found your blog by accident (stumbleupon).
    I have book marked it for later!

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