Just About a Dream Pattern for Snow Lovers

December 24th, 2012 at 12:18 pm by under 4 Warn Weather

What started as a twinkle in the European model’s eye midweek last week looks very likely to bear some serious snow to our region, starting Wednesday afternoon and intensifying Wednesday night. While I’ve had some concerns about warmer air mixing in, Monday morning guidance is highly favorable for mostly snow or all snow. I can’t rule out some sleet mixing in for a short time early Wednesday night, but that prospect is looking fairly unlikely. The intensity and favored track for this double barreled storm should provide enough vertical velocity/lift/cooling of the column to create a deep dendritic growth region. Strengthening E to NE winds Wednesday night will make for blowing snow and hazardous travel a real problem, with snow winding down to snow showers on Thursday morning. There is good model and ensemble agreement now, but amounts are still uncertain as to whether we’re talking about 6-12″ or even greater amounts if everything comes together just right (or wrong, depending on personal preference). This same large storm system will probably bring a significant or even major severe weather outbreak to parts of the Gulf states into the SE and maybe even lower middle Atlantic states starting later tonight in SE TX into Wednesday. Significant tornado outbreaks on Christmas Day are rare, but tomorrow may be an exception.

Tonight’s Christmas Eve snow will be ‘small potatoes’ but should provide a White Christmas for most folks who don’t have anything to show for last Friday night’s storm (not a problem for Ski Country, I know). Roads will probably become slick, and may still be slick on Christmas morning on untreated surfaces…a little freezing drizzle may be falling in spots. The midweek storm will be much more important, and will be disruptive for post-Christmas travel from Oklahoma City to the interior of New England.

Another system will bring some limited snowfall into our region by Saturday afternoon, if the European model is correct. In that model, this system will deepen explosively as it nears the northern New England and Maritimes coast, bringing cold & windy conditions  with sct lake snow showers into the eastern Great Lakes. Its circulation could also make for quite a nasty wind chill on New Years Eve.

512 Responses to “Just About a Dream Pattern for Snow Lovers”

  1. Thinksnow12 says:

    I’m not meaning to give anyone the impression i’m not thrilled with the storm we just had, I just have a hard time beleiving we’ll duplicate it this season. Ordinarily we do not receive that much snow from a synoptic event so when it happens its quite a sight. No question the snow will stick around for at least a week if not longer I just like the anticipation of the event, how it unfolds, seeing the storm unfold before our eyes. I’m just wired to want more when we get something this exceptional, call me a snow junkie if you must.

  2. Don Paul says:

    After a series of short waves for a good part of next week keeps sending reinforcing shots of cold air, it does appear that Pacific air will be flooding much of the lower 48 for a while. There is no reason to believe as of now that this trend will be permanent. The indices are all heading in the wrong direction, and there is a linkage. But the teleconnections which led to this cold & active period can easily resume sometime further out in January and/or February. No one here has the vision to postulate otherwise, and that includes me.

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