Just About a Dream Pattern for Snow LoversDecember 24th, 2012 at 12:18 pm by Don Paul under 4 Warn Weather
What started as a twinkle in the European model’s eye midweek last week looks very likely to bear some serious snow to our region, starting Wednesday afternoon and intensifying Wednesday night. While I’ve had some concerns about warmer air mixing in, Monday morning guidance is highly favorable for mostly snow or all snow. I can’t rule out some sleet mixing in for a short time early Wednesday night, but that prospect is looking fairly unlikely. The intensity and favored track for this double barreled storm should provide enough vertical velocity/lift/cooling of the column to create a deep dendritic growth region. Strengthening E to NE winds Wednesday night will make for blowing snow and hazardous travel a real problem, with snow winding down to snow showers on Thursday morning. There is good model and ensemble agreement now, but amounts are still uncertain as to whether we’re talking about 6-12″ or even greater amounts if everything comes together just right (or wrong, depending on personal preference). This same large storm system will probably bring a significant or even major severe weather outbreak to parts of the Gulf states into the SE and maybe even lower middle Atlantic states starting later tonight in SE TX into Wednesday. Significant tornado outbreaks on Christmas Day are rare, but tomorrow may be an exception.
Tonight’s Christmas Eve snow will be ‘small potatoes’ but should provide a White Christmas for most folks who don’t have anything to show for last Friday night’s storm (not a problem for Ski Country, I know). Roads will probably become slick, and may still be slick on Christmas morning on untreated surfaces…a little freezing drizzle may be falling in spots. The midweek storm will be much more important, and will be disruptive for post-Christmas travel from Oklahoma City to the interior of New England.
Another system will bring some limited snowfall into our region by Saturday afternoon, if the European model is correct. In that model, this system will deepen explosively as it nears the northern New England and Maritimes coast, bringing cold & windy conditions with sct lake snow showers into the eastern Great Lakes. Its circulation could also make for quite a nasty wind chill on New Years Eve.