The “Big One” is Starting to Look More Plausible.October 24th, 2012 at 12:48 pm by Don Paul under 4 Warn Weather
Okay…the Big News is the radical departure in the 12z operational GFS. The GFS now keeps this storm closer to the middle Atlantic seaboard and has it fully captured by the inland 500mb trough, bringing it onshore near Maine as a monster Atlantic storm Tue-Wed, on the scale of what we’ve been seeing in the Euro. It stacks it up vertically near the Adirondacks by Wed night-Thur.
While the synoptic scale of the model doesn’t lend itself to close scrutiny as to where the best dynamical cooling will occur, this solution would make a period of at least mountain snow more likely. The storm would bring destructive tidal flooding to eastern New England, especially Maine, and the potential for high winds well into the interior back to WNY and PA. The modeled 850 temp doesn’t really get quite cold enough for snow, but strong vertical velocity might overcome this. With even the out-to-sea Canadian GEM showing a second strong low reforming near New England, the majority of operational models are on board for an immense Atlantic storm to move to the coast and inland.
I have not yet seen ensemble members in the GFS run…and this could still be an all rain event, especially at the lower elevations.