The “Big One” is Starting to Look More Plausible.

October 24th, 2012 at 12:48 pm by under 4 Warn Weather

Okay…the Big News is the radical departure in the 12z operational GFS. The GFS now keeps this storm closer to the middle Atlantic seaboard and has it fully captured by the inland 500mb trough, bringing it onshore near Maine as a monster Atlantic storm Tue-Wed, on the scale of what we’ve been seeing in the Euro. It stacks it up vertically near the Adirondacks by Wed night-Thur.

While the synoptic scale of the model doesn’t lend itself to close scrutiny as to where the best dynamical cooling will occur, this solution would make a period of at least mountain snow more likely. The storm would bring destructive tidal flooding to eastern New England, especially Maine, and the potential for high winds well into the interior back to WNY and PA. The modeled 850 temp doesn’t really get quite cold enough for snow, but strong vertical velocity might overcome this. With even the out-to-sea Canadian GEM showing a second strong low reforming near New England, the majority of operational models are on board for an immense Atlantic storm to move to the coast and inland.

I have not yet seen ensemble members in the GFS run…and this could still be an all rain event, especially at the lower elevations.

433 Responses to “The “Big One” is Starting to Look More Plausible.”

  1. Dave from Roc says:

    As of late this afternoon, RG&E reports 8,700 customers still without power in the Rochester metro. According to local media, RG&E will be distributing dry ice to those without power.

  2. Don Paul says:

    The operational Euro now has a flatter, further east solution for that coastal storm system next week. I already got a FB message that one of the cable networks is hyping “another big nor’easter.” Didn’t see the report myself. But I’m not seeing signs of that in current model and ensemble runs.

  3. Nick2 says:

    Don, the Euro Model seemed to do a superior job in depicting the track of Sandy, it also seems to be very reliable in both longer range temperature and precipitation runs as well. If that strong blocking pattern stays put though it could be an interesting winter.

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