Warmup builds for a few days; then a fairly sharp Cool Down arrives in a Pattern Shift.October 1st, 2012 at 12:26 pm by Don Paul under 4 Warn Weather
Temperatures will be running above average Tuesday through Thursday of this week, with a fairly sharp cold front arriving by around Friday (some uncertainty in the timing). Fairly abundant Gulf moisture will be streaming overhead by Tuesday, but the triggering mechanism doesn’t look strong enough to deliver coverage or amounts suggested by the amount of precipitable water which would be available. Temps will peak on Wednesday–probably the warmest day in some time, heading toward the mid 70s in many lower elevation locations, with residual warmth on Thursday. There could be a few Tshwrs Wednesday, mainly late, though much of the day will prove to be rainfree.
The long-advertised pattern change to cool, then Chilly, temperatures is still coming. While nothing looks extreme, the ensemble mean 500 mb products suggest persistence from the weekend through about Thursday of next week. However, the reality will probably be some embedded short waves traversing the longer wave trough, producing some ups and downs through the chilly pattern. Some limited lake shower response will show up along the way–timing still to be worked out.