Ups and Downs, but All in All, an Autumnal Pattern until later in the MonthSeptember 17th, 2012 at 11:59 am by Don Paul under 4 Warn Weather
At the time of this posting (Monday AM, Sept 17), a beautiful summery day is in progress. A pretty good slug of manageable rain (.5 to isolated 1″ amounts) is on the way, which will begin in the predawn hours of Tuesday. Despite a couple of rogue model runs during the weekend, the heaviest rain–as originally showing in Friday’s model and ensemble runs–will pass to our east into central & ern NY. There may also be a severe weather outbreak on Tuesday in association with strong mid-level dynamics, well to our east and into the Middle Atlantic states. The rain will begin to diminish in WNY behind a cold front by later Tuesday, as temps start to tumble. Wednesday’s cool down still looks notable but it will be short-lived, as warming will develop again by Thur-Fri. That warming will occur ahead of the next reinforcing shortwave which will bring scattered showers by later Friday into Saturday, and renewed cooling. It may be cool enough for a limited lake response on a windy & chilly Sunday. The MEAN pattern will still be for a longer wave trough to impact parts of the east central US and the Great Lakes, with mean temperatures running below average until late in the month, when the pattern will flatten (around the 28th-30th). But within this mean, there will be more ups and downs.
In other words, the basic outlook has not changed from what I’d projected midweek, last week–which in and of itself is somewhat unusual (the consistency, that is). As I’ve noted, while some bloggers’ juices flow in a pattern such as this, September patterns seldom if ever foretell what the winter will be like, and winter outlooks made this far in advance show little statistical skill over flipping a coin. Still, CPC is leaning toward a weak, not a moderate el nino. Weak el ninos (independent of other yet to be determined variables) have been statistically linked with average to below average temperatures in WNY by Robert Hamilton, at the Buffalo NWS.