Another Tough-to-Forecast Week; What Else is New?

August 13th, 2012 at 11:50 am by under 4 Warn Weather

After starting the week on a benign note, with seasonably warm weather on Monday, a set of disturbances will return unsettled conditions to our region late Monday night into Tuesday. As of this posting, the Storm Prediction Ctr has WNY at Slight Risk for Severe Tstorms on Tuesday, into the evening. It would appear the risk will peak in the afternoon and early evening hours. It’s too early for me to discern whether or not the 12z NAM may be showing signs of convective feedback, but that model is indicating some pretty decent coverage and rainfall amounts by later Tuesday into early Wednesday. Even so, there is more than a hint that the highest rainfall will occur more toward the Genesee Valley and SE of the metro area. However, this shading of the precip does not appear to be related to any element of lake shadowing, as boundary lyr winds in the NAM will tend to be more from the east and NE. There may be some elements of elevated convection, and this shading of heaviest rainfall appears to be connected with model’s placement of the best lift. After the Sct Shwrs gradually wind down on Wednesday, the next system of note will be the approach of a cold front during Friday. That front will trigger prefrontal convection, and its strength at least points to the need to keep an eye on it for any stronger convection potential. In its wake will come the cooler than average temperatures for several days, and possibly some unsettled and lake enhanced activity during a portion of the weekend.

The NCEP 500 mb Ensemble Mean still suggests a trend to return to near average temperatures later next week. There are no signs in the 16 day period of a return to unseasonable warmth.



315 Responses to “Another Tough-to-Forecast Week; What Else is New?”

  1. THINKSNOW12 says:

    With the way this spring /summer has gone, hope is maybe all we have as snow lovers.

  2. devin OP says:

    BTW welcome back Don.

  3. Don Paul says:

    If it works–placebo or not–nothing wrong with mind over matter. And you certainly can’t harm yourself by substituting untreated produce over produce, so go for it! But the world can absolutely not sustain itself growing foodstuff with no treatments, and the UN World Health Organization and World Agricultural Organization will attest to that. Most modern farmers try to minimize insecticide and fungicide use where possible, because the stuff’s so darned expensive…not like the days of the persistent chlorinated hydrocarbons like DDT, which were ‘dirt cheap’.

  4. lois says:

    Just to update you, DP…….we had a storm named Isaac develop in the gulf while you were gone…..maybe you heard about it. ;) Haven’t checked on the others, especially Leslie. (Organics don’t seem to do much for my mind!)

  5. Dave from Roc says:

    12z Euro shows what looks to me to be a cutoff low getting carved out over the Illinois / Indiana area toward next weekend. As is usual, that could change, but if it were to pan out, that would once again be great news for a portion of the midwest drought area that already picked up several inches from Isaac. Too late for this year’s crop, but the earlier we can get the water table up in those areas, the better chance of having a halfway decent start to next year’s growing season.

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