After starting the week on a benign note, with seasonably warm weather on Monday, a set of disturbances will return unsettled conditions to our region late Monday night into Tuesday. As of this posting, the Storm Prediction Ctr has WNY at Slight Risk for Severe Tstorms on Tuesday, into the evening. It would appear the risk will peak in the afternoon and early evening hours. It’s too early for me to discern whether or not the 12z NAM may be showing signs of convective feedback, but that model is indicating some pretty decent coverage and rainfall amounts by later Tuesday into early Wednesday. Even so, there is more than a hint that the highest rainfall will occur more toward the Genesee Valley and SE of the metro area. However, this shading of the precip does not appear to be related to any element of lake shadowing, as boundary lyr winds in the NAM will tend to be more from the east and NE. There may be some elements of elevated convection, and this shading of heaviest rainfall appears to be connected with model’s placement of the best lift. After the Sct Shwrs gradually wind down on Wednesday, the next system of note will be the approach of a cold front during Friday. That front will trigger prefrontal convection, and its strength at least points to the need to keep an eye on it for any stronger convection potential. In its wake will come the cooler than average temperatures for several days, and possibly some unsettled and lake enhanced activity during a portion of the weekend.
The NCEP 500 mb Ensemble Mean still suggests a trend to return to near average temperatures later next week. There are no signs in the 16 day period of a return to unseasonable warmth.