Some Dings in the Drought Armor, but It Goes On

July 30th, 2012 at 11:23 am by under 4 Warn Weather

Some briefly helpful rainfall in the NE half of the Niagara Frontier last week will do little to offset the longer term moderate drought gripping the Niagara Frontier. Rainfall chances this week look to be sparse in coverage, with limited amounts in the face of only weak triggers. This will end up being a fairly toasty week as well, with temperatures running somewhat above average on all but Wednesday. SPC notes some low possibility of severe storms on Wednesday (5%), but the timing of a weak cool front does not look favorable for our region.

There are hints of a better chance of somewhat more widespread activity by or toward Sunday. A stronger short wave will be digging across the nrn Great Lakes, and might up the ante on convection at that time. In the meantime, the primary ridge will stay west of us, but our heights at 500 mb will be high enough to make an extended period of warmer than average temperatures continue well into next week on most days.

Of minor interest, the Canadian GEM is showing a hurricane developing and moving toward the east coast next week. This model would virtually never be a model of first choice in tropical meteorology. I mention it only because it’s the first sign of any action in the Atlantic hurricane basin in a long time. Even if such a storm did develop, the upper level winds would tend to turn it toward the NE as it approached the east coast, IMO.

583 Responses to “Some Dings in the Drought Armor, but It Goes On”

  1. Dave from Roc says:

    The NWS in St. Louis has upper 70′s for highs and upper 50′s for lows for next weekend. If that pans out, that would be a wild shift from what that region has experienced much of this summer – A shift to BELOW normal, temperature-wise. I bet some folks down there never thought they’d see below normal temps in the forecast again. Kansas City has a similar forecast for that time period. Now if we can just get some big time rain to chop away at the drought…

  2. emwhy says:

    Seems like we always get a weekend in August that serves to remind us that fall is on the way.

  3. junior johnson in friendship says:

    I guess new thread ?

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