Back to Worsening Drought Conditions, with an extra small *July 18th, 2012 at 9:54 pm by Don Paul under 4 Warn Weather
With the coverage for convection limited to NE Niagara & northern Orleans counties Tuesday night, it’s back to the drought. The rainfall deficit as of Wednesday is 5.66″ at the airport, which is fairly representative of the Niagara Frontier. Soil moisture is already in trouble, and some people with well water are in serious trouble in parts of our region. A somewhat cooler and less humid weather regime will hold into Saturday, with some Mugginess returning for Sunday and increasing Sunday night into early next week, ahead of a weak cool front. Once again, despite all the humidity at low levels, convection chances look slim north of the hilly terrain, where a few tshwrs might develop Sunday afternoon along the edge of the lake breeze.
The * comes in with an issue known to meteorologists and modelers as “convective feedback”, in which a model or models develop blowups of thunderstorms which are unlikely to develop in reality, focusing on a weak disturbance and overdoing its energy. Unfortunately, the NWS NAM and GFS are showing signs of this feedback Thursday night and Friday–but it’s not quite a lock that it’s “feedback.” Our afternoon run of 4Warn Vividcast also had a spurious flareup on Friday, focusing on the s tier, while Microcast had much more modest weak convection drawing near. However, the European also shows some cells getting into WNY Thur night and Friday –so I’m a bit troubled by this. Hope it happens, but in this persistent pattern I certainly can’t throw my hat in that ring just yet, if ever.