Back to Worsening Drought Conditions, with an extra small *

July 18th, 2012 at 9:54 pm by under 4 Warn Weather

With the coverage for convection limited to NE Niagara & northern Orleans counties Tuesday night, it’s back to the drought. The rainfall deficit as of Wednesday is 5.66″ at the airport, which is fairly representative of the Niagara Frontier. Soil moisture is already in trouble, and some people with well water are in serious trouble in parts of our region. A somewhat cooler and less humid weather regime will hold into Saturday, with some Mugginess returning for Sunday and increasing Sunday night into early next week, ahead of a weak cool front. Once again, despite all the humidity at low levels, convection chances look slim north of the hilly terrain, where a few tshwrs might develop Sunday afternoon along the edge of the lake breeze.

The * comes in with an issue known to meteorologists and modelers as “convective feedback”, in which a model or models develop blowups of thunderstorms which are unlikely to develop in reality, focusing on a weak disturbance and overdoing its energy. Unfortunately, the NWS NAM and GFS are showing signs of this feedback Thursday night and Friday–but it’s not quite a lock that it’s “feedback.” Our afternoon run of 4Warn Vividcast also had a spurious flareup on Friday, focusing on the s tier, while Microcast had much more modest weak convection drawing near. However, the European also shows some cells getting into WNY Thur night and Friday –so I’m a bit troubled by this. Hope it happens, but in this persistent pattern I certainly can’t throw my hat in that ring just yet, if ever.

385 Responses to “Back to Worsening Drought Conditions, with an extra small *”

  1. Kevin says:

    Thinksnow, that is exactly what I have been thinking about the lake temps. this year. It seems they should have gotten higher. If memory serves me correctly, we had several nights last summer that didn’t get lower than the mid 70′s. That may have enabled it to keep the energy gained each day last year.

  2. Dave from Roc says:

    We’ve had some incredibly low humidity values so far this summer. That may be causing a sort of subtle evaporative cooling effect on the lake temperature. That’s not to say that the dry air has actually lowered the lake temperature, but perhaps it has fought against the lake’s ability to warm quite as rapidly as it would with the same air temperature only more humidity. Just a guess…

  3. Kevin says:

    That’s an interesting thought, Dave. It does make sense. I mean, I realize the lake isn’t cooler than normal. But, there was such a warm anomaly for so long and then this summer has been so warm and dry that you’d expect it to continue. I just hope it doesn’t cool too fast this fall. It would be nice to have a good lake effect shot this year.

  4. THINKSNOW12 says:

    Now your speaking my language. I wonder if, well, even Bruce could complain about a snowy winter this coming season. Yeah. He probably could.

  5. Don Paul says:

    Bruce informed me in an email, I think, some time ago that he was done here after I deleted what I viewed as an obnoxious post.


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