Chances for Widespread Showers Increasing Tue Night-Wed; then, Back to DroughtJuly 16th, 2012 at 11:24 am by Don Paul under 4 Warn Weather
THIS time around, we have a decent chance for more widespread shower activity with the approach of a cold front later Tuesday. And if we miss out THIS time, our drought troubles will worsen. Here’s why I’m a bit more optimistic. This front will be the type (anabatic) in which a good deal of its associated rainfall will occur behind the front. Warm, moist air will be overrunning the cooler air behind the front and afford us an opportunity for showers which can’t be killed off by a stabilizing lake breeze on Wednesday ( at which time sfc winds will be from the N/NE).
There will be a slight chance for severe tstorms ahead of the front, in which case the primary threat would be damaging straightline winds and hail. But the best rainfall potential, again, lies behind the front. After this “opportunity”, not much is showing for days to come…so let’s hope it’s not a missed opportunity!
As for the overall pattern, conditions will become much more comfortable for Thursday-Friday, with some modest (by this summer’s standards) heating resuming over the weekend. It appears the cooler trough over the NE for Thur-Fri will lift out and allow the warm ridge to build east again for a few days. However, most extended range guidance suggests the trough will reestablish its presence over the NE by next Tue-Wed. There is a chance we’ll have a more extended period of seasonable temperatures at that time. Precipitation chances are highly uncertain so far in advance. We may get lucky with some convection moving through from time to time on a NW flow aloft in that pattern, but nothing widespread would be likely in that NW flow.