Chances for Widespread Showers Increasing Tue Night-Wed; then, Back to Drought

July 16th, 2012 at 11:24 am by under 4 Warn Weather

THIS time around, we have a decent chance for more widespread shower activity with the approach of a cold front later Tuesday. And if we miss out THIS time, our drought troubles will worsen. Here’s why I’m a bit more optimistic. This front will be the type (anabatic) in which a good deal of its associated rainfall will occur behind the front. Warm, moist air will be overrunning the cooler air behind the front and afford us an opportunity for showers which can’t be killed off by a stabilizing lake breeze on Wednesday ( at which time sfc winds will be from the N/NE).

There will be a slight chance for severe tstorms ahead of the front, in which case the primary threat would be damaging straightline winds and hail. But the best rainfall potential, again, lies behind the front. After this “opportunity”, not much is showing for days to come…so let’s hope it’s not a missed opportunity!

As for the overall pattern, conditions will become much more comfortable for Thursday-Friday, with some modest (by this summer’s standards) heating resuming over the weekend. It appears the cooler trough over the NE for Thur-Fri will lift out and allow the warm ridge to build east again for a few days. However, most extended range guidance suggests the trough will reestablish its presence over the NE by next Tue-Wed. There is a chance we’ll have a more extended period of seasonable temperatures at that time. Precipitation chances are highly uncertain so far in advance. We may get lucky with some convection moving through from time to time on a NW flow aloft in that pattern, but nothing widespread would be likely in that NW flow.

105 Responses to “Chances for Widespread Showers Increasing Tue Night-Wed; then, Back to Drought”

  1. Dave from Roc says:

    Well, after yet another missed opportunity for meaningful rain (for most), here are the latest official stats for the month to date, as we head into another extended dry spell:

    KBUF: 0.17″
    KROC: 0.15″

  2. Don Paul says:

    As of today, the mean temperature for Buffalo in July is the warmest in record keeping history.

  3. Dave from Roc says:

    Here’s an interesting article about strange, electric blue clouds located almost literally on the edge of space, that are a bit of a mystery. The relevance of this article today is that there have been quite a few reports and images of these clouds around the world over the last couple weeks:

    http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2003/19feb_nlc/

  4. Dave from Roc says:

    And while there’s nothing strange about this cloud, it was quite spectacular to see yesterday evening while I was at the lake Ontario shore. The setting sun cast a cool looking shadow across the sky. This was right around the time that the thunderstorms really began to fire up offshore. I’m running out of awesome things to see on that big lake, but I’ll never get bored with them. Now I just need to see the aurora borealis over the water one day.

    http://rochesterperspectives.shutterfly.com/336

  5. Gary Clark says:

    Donyour the best,most accurate.your whole staff is the best,I watch them all.Same with the news.Keep up the great work.GAC!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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