Rainfall Deficit Will WorsenJuly 9th, 2012 at 1:29 pm by Don Paul under 4 Warn Weather
As I post this on a sparkling Monday afternoon, there is a disturbance sinking SSE from the northern Great Lakes which has a small–even remote–chance of bringing isolated convection to the Niagara Frontier early tonight. And that’ll do it for the work week. We’ll keep the comfortable conditions through midweek, with a gradual increase in temperatures later this week. The enormous east-west 500 mb ridge will try to reestablish itself late this week, but since late last week models and ensembles tend to show a split in the ridge, with one center over the Atlantic and anther over the west. The weakness between the ridges will allow a gradually warmer & more humid SW flow to develop. Heights will not get to where they were on Friday, but after early this week they will run above average for some time to come. There may be enough moisture and instability for some poorly organized convection to begin to show up by Sunday, especially over the hills (the “least dry” part of our region). The operational Euro shows heights continuing to rise early next week, getting us back up to where we were late last week, but that is an extreme time range (240hr) for an operational model. And for those who dabble in the GFS and precip portrayal, I remind you of an apparent problem it has since its new version went on line in May. It continues to raise dewpoints too high, and develops spurious precipitation based on that elevated moisture. NCEP’s modelers are working on how best to deal with this, but it will take a few weeks to have an adequate dataset.
Having looked at the NWS Storm Total Rainfall Saturday night, I’d guesstimate that only around 10, possibly 12% of WNY got any meaningful rainfall Saturday. We continue to be in rainfall trouble during the peak growth period for corn and some other crops. This does not qualify as a true drought (drought is usually thought of over a term of months and years, not weeks), but it’s getting fairly serious. To some commercial growers, I’m sure it qualifies as a drought for their livelihoods.