Rainfall Potential Questionable; Muggy Warmup Enroute; 4th Weather; and a Different Kind of Heat RecordJuly 2nd, 2012 at 1:35 pm by Don Paul under 4 Warn Weather
A different kind of heat record of note tabulated by the Buffalo NWS: In terms of Heating Degree Days, which run from July 1-June 3oth on a yearly basis, this past 2011-2012 has been the warmest year in Buffalo history (fewest heating degree days).
Another warmup arrives on Tuesday and, with minor variations, will last into Saturday morning. A shortwave should help to trigger some scattered convection Tuesday afternoon, mainly later, and during the evening. While precipitable water will be rising considerably, once this short waves passes Tuesday evening, the triggers necessary for widespread coverage will be dissipating. So, I’m not convinced these tshowers & storms will do the trick in restoring the soil moisture deficiency we have for the majority of the viewing area. As for the 4th itself, some scattered convection is again likely but–again–the trigger mechanisms don’t appear to be there to tap the high precipitable water efficiently. In any case, whatever we get on the 4th looks likely to die out in time for the fireworks that evening. It does look, though, like the day of the 4th will be Very Muggy, with dewpoints approaching 70. A little less humidity will make Thursday marginally more comfortable, but some Heat will be building on Friday as the ridge temporarily builds to the east and heights rise. Some locations will flirt with the 90 degree mark again.
A cold front will slowly sag across WNY during Saturday, with some limited opportunity for convection. By Sunday, a more NWly flow at mid-levels will bring the onset of a more comfortable pattern which should persist well into next week.