Some Heat Will Build, but Rainfall Potential Looking Spotty and Sparse

June 26th, 2012 at 1:28 pm by under 4 Warn Weather

With a deep area of low pressure to our east slowly moving out, a building ridge of warm high pressure will bulge eastward and bring above average temperatures back into WNY. Readings will move up sharply on Thursday, with some increase in humidity. There are some differences between models on the passage of weak short waves and the extent of the heating, but nothing extreme is likely. Some minimal cooling (still leaving us warm) will probably occur during the weekend, with the possibility of some spotty showers for a minority of Sunday. As has been mentioned in the previous thread, dry soil–especially north of the City–will allow temperatures to rise a little higher than modeled. There is no widespread precipitation potential currently in sight over the next 5-7 days. Of course, that could change in future model runs.

Tropical Storm Debby is likely to move a little more rapidly to the east than earlier models and ensembles had suggested, weakening to a depression over the FL peninsula and restrengthening to a tropical storm as it heads to the E and eventually NE over the Atlantic. As of Tuesday, Debby is sheared and showing slight weakening as it moves toward FL.

Earliest hints on the 4th; warm temperatures and too early to tell about precipitation.

59 Responses to “Some Heat Will Build, but Rainfall Potential Looking Spotty and Sparse”

  1. Don Paul says:

    As with most things in life, C & Lois, t’aint that simple:

    http://math.ucr.edu/home/baez/physics/General/hot_water.html

  2. Dave from Roc says:

    Speaking of the article on warmer weather and crime, this trend is seen by law enforcement almost every spring in Buffalo and Rochester. The frequency of homicides tend to go down during the winter, and ramp up again as temps get warmer on a more consistent basis. Rochester has had 20 homicides since Jan 1st, 2012 – the majority of those occurring in the last three months. I don’t know the stats on Buffalo, but I would imagine that the numbers for this year are similar? To combat the violence, the city of Rochester has recently reactivated “Operation Impact”. This operation involves essentially flooding the most violent neighborhoods in Rochester with not just RPD, but also State Troopers and Sheriff’s Deputies. At times, one can barely walk a street block without seeing law enforcement staged somewhere. In the past, this has proven to reduce violent crimes dramatically, but it is VERY expensive to sustain. Recently, Chicago has been in the national spotlight for the incredibly high number of homicides so far this year…well over 100! Some are attributing this higher than “normal” number of homicides and overall violent crime in Chicago to the unusually warm winter and spring.

  3. C from P says:

    Dave – I know some RPD’ers up in your area and even they have stated that shootings and other violent crimes have been way higher than normal there this year. In fact, one of the RPD guys I know said that there has been at least one shooting every day for the past couple of weeks.

  4. lois says:

    As for crime, it’s not “all” weather related.
    As for hot water versus cold water freezing; will never look at water the same way again.
    As for me, not as simple as I appear, in fact, quite complex.
    As for the world, heaven help us, as nothing is as it seems to be.
    Today’s saying….”it is what it is.” Don’t quite know how to understand that either.
    Temp. here is a pleasant 78F. G’nite.

  5. Dave from Roc says:

    Yes, Rochester is dealing with a serious violence issue currently, including the most recent case of RPD returning fire and killing a suspect who allegedly shot at them. Several RPD officers have been seriously injured as a result of being shot in the line of duty over the last couple years. Operation Impact was just recently reinstituted, so hopefully the results will begin to show, as it did in the past. But, like I noted, it’s very expensive to sustain for very long. Still, there are plenty of safe neighborhoods in the city. Just like the incident in Buffalo at the City Grill, and the incident at Martin Luther King Jr Park, it shouldn’t be seen as a generalization of the city. I just hope we see the day when Buffalo and Rochester begin to stabilze and grow once again. Both of our cities are trying – we just need the people and the high paying jobs to come back.

  6. Sled Hill says:

    I’m at cedar point and just missed a Deracho making big news tonight here in Sandusky. I was in line for a coaster and they shut it down due to weather. So I checked the radar, and I saw a huge red blob that was going to just miss us to the south. I guess DC is getting it now.

  7. C from P says:

    SH – did you hit the Top Thrill Dragster yet?

  8. Sled Hill says:

    8 times c! What a ride. :)

  9. Fort Erie says:

    lots of lightening southeast of us – nice light show

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