Enter an Extended Dry Period, with a Slow Warmup

June 12th, 2012 at 10:49 pm by under 4 Warn Weather

Now that Tuesday’s convection has passed, a cooler and much drier airmass will take hold midweek. A ridge of high pressure at the 500 mb surface will begin to rebuild gradually over the next few days. This will assure a gradual return to more summerlike conditions during the weekend and, especially, early next week. With the ‘axis’ of this ridge slated to be over us, its connection at lower levels to the Gulf will stay west of us for some time, keeping the humidity from coming back up to uncomfortable levels during the weekend. Some increase in humidity may become more noticeable early next week. Most ensemble means and members are suggesting a trough returning to the Great Lakes by later next week, bringing somewhat cooler temperatures back for several days.

In the meantime, UV levels will be high, and soil moisture will begin to evaporate gradually later this week as temps slowly warm and humidity stays comparatively low. Gardeners and farmers will have to return to irrigation and watering within a few days. Heaviest rainfall amounts on Tuesday were mostly to the east and south of the metro area, which resulted in some limited flash flooding not far from Hinsdale and in a few parts of southern Allegany County. Of course, pollen counts will be heading back up as well.

For those attending the Wallenda Walk, every sign points to a dry and comfortably mild evening, with only a light wind–probably from the SE or S. Conditions on the cable itself are quite difficult to forecast, since a thorough microscale forecast without a previous database (say, a Calspan-type study) doesn’t exist. We’d need to know such variables as mist patterns derived from various wind vectors at various velocities, the amount of mist being produced at various water levels past the power intakes, the interaction between different wind speeds and directions and nearby structures and trees. In short, it’s a predictive problem which can’t be solved in this time frame.

25 Responses to “Enter an Extended Dry Period, with a Slow Warmup”

  1. Don Paul says:

    We have to hope we get some decent rainfall with the passage of the cold front.

  2. C from P says:

    At least the CPC is somewhat optimistic about rainfall for the NE US. Moderate above avg precip in the 6-10 day outlook, and a weaker above avg anomaly in the 8-14 day outlook. Maybe we’ll get that gulf moisture connection back in here in a couple weeks (and without all the oppressive heat since temps have equal chances of being above or below the avg)…

  3. Dave from Roc says:

    Don – Does it look like the eventual cool down toward next weekend will feature unsettled weather under the cooler air, or rather a dry Canadian high pressure? Next weekend begins the ten day International Jazz Festival out this way, so I’m hoping for a fairly dry start.

  4. Don Paul says:

    Way too early to tell, Dave.I don’t know that I agree with CPC’s precip anomaly for us. It may be a little too far west, depending on the eventual longitude of the trough axis.

  5. sandy says:

    Hi Don
    We have a graduation party for July 8th at Chestnut ridge….I am hoping the weather will be nice. any thoughts? I hope it will be warm but not toooo warm. Doesn’t look like that heat which I love will be coming back after it leaves us next week. :( Sandy

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