Enter an Extended Dry Period, with a Slow WarmupJune 12th, 2012 at 10:49 pm by Don Paul under 4 Warn Weather
Now that Tuesday’s convection has passed, a cooler and much drier airmass will take hold midweek. A ridge of high pressure at the 500 mb surface will begin to rebuild gradually over the next few days. This will assure a gradual return to more summerlike conditions during the weekend and, especially, early next week. With the ‘axis’ of this ridge slated to be over us, its connection at lower levels to the Gulf will stay west of us for some time, keeping the humidity from coming back up to uncomfortable levels during the weekend. Some increase in humidity may become more noticeable early next week. Most ensemble means and members are suggesting a trough returning to the Great Lakes by later next week, bringing somewhat cooler temperatures back for several days.
In the meantime, UV levels will be high, and soil moisture will begin to evaporate gradually later this week as temps slowly warm and humidity stays comparatively low. Gardeners and farmers will have to return to irrigation and watering within a few days. Heaviest rainfall amounts on Tuesday were mostly to the east and south of the metro area, which resulted in some limited flash flooding not far from Hinsdale and in a few parts of southern Allegany County. Of course, pollen counts will be heading back up as well.
For those attending the Wallenda Walk, every sign points to a dry and comfortably mild evening, with only a light wind–probably from the SE or S. Conditions on the cable itself are quite difficult to forecast, since a thorough microscale forecast without a previous database (say, a Calspan-type study) doesn’t exist. We’d need to know such variables as mist patterns derived from various wind vectors at various velocities, the amount of mist being produced at various water levels past the power intakes, the interaction between different wind speeds and directions and nearby structures and trees. In short, it’s a predictive problem which can’t be solved in this time frame.